470
FXUS65 KFGZ 140738
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1238 AM MST Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Expect hot temperatures to continue through Tuesday,
with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, some with
gusty winds but mostly light rainfall. A gradual uptick in
moisture is forecast during the mid to late week period, with a
potential for much wetter conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today and Tuesday...High pressure continue to gradually
shift eastward through the start of this week. As this occurs,
moisture looks to gradually increase each day across northern
Arizona. Hi-res guidance this morning points towards the higher
terrain again being the main focus this afternoon, eventually
moving off the terrain later this afternoon as outflow boundaries
begin to drive the show. Tuesday looks to be a similar story, with
just a slight uptick in coverage and intensity. For each day, the
main threats will mainly be gusty outflow winds, though a couple
brief downpours in any stronger storm will be possible.

Wednesday onward...A more traditional monsoonal pattern looks to
take hold by the middle of next week, as weak trough setting up over
the Gulf of California and high pressure remains situated to the
east. This allows for sub-tropical moisture to be advected northward
across much of Arizona, resulting in daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms returning. Added dynamics from the trough will also
aid in thunderstorm development, likely leading to an increased risk
of flash flooding later this week. Day-to-day coverage will be
largely controlled by the exact positioning of the high, as well as
any remnant debris clouds from the previous day. Convection does
look to peak late Wednesday and Thursday as upper-level dynamics
from the trough look to be overhead.


&&

.AVIATION...Monday 14/06Z through Tuesday 15/06Z...Mostly VFR
conditions expected, but brief MVFR conditions are possible in
SHRA/TSRA. Also, FU expected along and NW of a KGCN-KPGA line.
Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA forecast to pick up after 18Z and last
through at least 04Z, primarily along and south of a KGCN-KRQE
line. Outside of gusty storm driven outflow winds, look for
variable winds 5-15 kts gusting near 20 kts.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 15/06Z through Thursday 17/06Z...Daily chances
for SHRA/TSRA will continue, with best chances between 18Z-04Z
each day. Outside of reduced visibilities and ceilings in heavier
storms, VFR conditions should prevail. W-SW winds 10-20 kts
gusting near 25 kts expected during the afternoons, but
gusty/erratic winds from storms will be likely.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday...Increasing chances of showers
and thunderstorms each day, especially south of the I-40 corridor.
Daytime winds variable at 5-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph Monday,
becoming west/southwest for Tuesday. Gusty, erratic winds possible
in and around thunderstorms.

Wednesday through Friday...Cooling temperatures and widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity. Wetting rains are likely with
stronger storms. Winds west through southwest at 5-15 mph, with gust
to 20 mph, each day. Gusty, erratic winds possible in and around
thunderstorms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff