Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 172042

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
142 PM PDT Sat Mar 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Showers will linger through Sunday as a storm system
slowly exits. Day and night temperatures will be below normal
through the middle of next week. The next storm system will affect
the area Wednesday night and Thursday.


.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday. A 1000 mile diameter
closed off mean circulation with multiple low pressure centers
within is moving over the northwest CONUS and western Canada. One
lobe extension is still stirring up some showers over northern
Nevada at this time. The coolest air is still filtering into
Nevada and daytime temperatures may be close to the record min/max
for St. Patrick`s Day...32 degrees. Temperatures didn`t rise
above freezing until after noon for many areas and abundant
cloudiness is preventing temperatures from spiking thus far. A
fairly quiet pattern is expected through Tuesday. Low pressure
will slowly exit the region this weekend and showers will
diminish. Weak high pressure will keep things dry for the most
part Monday and Tuesday, with temperatures slowly warming.

Tonight through Sunday. The pattern is still favorable for showers
to continue in the cold air mass over the state. The southernmost
upper low center in the triple-low trough structure will be
moving south through central Nevada tonight before ejecting east
on Sunday. This will continue to pull in cold air and this could
be our coldest night for awhile, despite some lingering
cloudiness, due to the fresh snowpack. There could be some patchy
fog beginning to develop around the Elko area before sunrise. Low
temperatures will drop into the single digits and teens. High
temperatures will be in the 30s.

Sunday night through Tuesday. This period will be mainly dry. Low
amplitude ridging will be persistent and morning freezing fog is
expected across much of eastern Nevada. There is a small
possibility for a few showers to develop near the Idaho/Oregon
borders as a relatively moist flow crests the low-profile ridge.
Low temperatures will be in the single digits and teens. High
temperatures will rise through the 40s Monday to around 50 degrees
on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Saturday.

Flow turns southwest on Tuesday night as an open wave is poised to
move through the Great Basin Wednesday through Thursday night.
Models are in fairly good agreement this far out and snow levels
start off high and are not looking like they will drop till
towards the end of the system on Thursday afternoon or night. So
while there is good moisture available, this will probably be a
snow producer for higher elevations. It also looks like there will
be stronger winds to deal with at times throughout the state,
especially on Thursday afternoon and evening.

Friday looks like an in between day, and then a colder system may
be on the horizon for next weekend with snow levels down to the
valley floors. Low confidence this far out with the EC just
bringing in a slider to clip northern Nevada while the GFS
digs a deeper system into Nevada.

Temperatures in the long term will be around normal to slightly
above, dropping to below normal by the end of the period.


.AVIATION...Scattered snow showers, with tempo MVFR conditions,
will dissipate by sunset, leaving VFR conditions all stations. By
early morning a few light snow showers may occur in the vicinity
of KEKO, bringing MVFR conditions and possibly a tempo IFR cig and
ceiling. Low chance for fog forming in the early morning as well
for KEKO, but confidence too low to include in TAF.




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