Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 110254

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
854 PM MDT Wed Aug 10 2022

.DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms continue this evening from
Baker County to Owyhee County, generally near the ID/OR border.
The storm coverage and strength have weakened, although there are
a couple of stronger storms producing small hail, heavy rainfall,
and gusty winds. The storms are expected to end by midnight.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms is anticipated
Thursday afternoon. No updates at this time.


.AVIATION...Isolated thunderstorm activity through tonight,
mainly in Malheur and Owyhee Counties. Storms capable of producing
locally heavy rain and outflow gusts to 40 kt and hail. Scattered
mid to high clouds elsewhere. Hot afternoon temperatures will
lead to high density altitude.

Surface Winds: generally variable 10 kt or less, except in
vicinity of thunderstorms where gusts up to 40 kt is possible.
Winds aloft at 10k feet MSL: SE-SW 15-30 kt.


SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night...Showers and isolated
thunderstorms continue to move through the forecast area this
afternoon, with a couple stronger storms noted over eastern
Oregon. Heavy rain remains possible over southwestern Idaho today
with precipitable waters of 1 to 1.5 inches as observed on the
morning upper air sounding. Small hail possible with storms, as
well as gusty winds. The moisture plume continues to shift east
today, with showers weakening overnight. Additional moisture pushes
expected the next couple of days, though water content is not
expected to be as significant as today and yesterday. Isolated
afternoon thunderstorms remain possible with gusty winds.
Temperatures will warm over the next couple of days, with values
returning to above normal levels by Friday.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...Upper level southwest flow
will continue through the weekend, as an upper level low moves to
our northwest. Models have dried out quite a bit for this weekend,
keeping precipitation mainly to our south and east. However, some
monsoon moisture will creep in on Saturday and Sunday afternoon,
bringing isolated rain showers and thunderstorms to the Boise
Mountains and near the ID-NV border. A ridge will retrograde into
the Intermountain West early next week and elevate temperatures to 5-
10 degrees above normal.





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