Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 081049

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
449 AM MDT Thu Jun 8 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 116 AM MDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Today the weakening low pressure will track northward over the Great
Basin leaving us in southerly flow. The synoptic dry slot pushes
into the area so there will be a modest decrease in the coverage
of convection this afternoon. Isolated showers and storms are
still possible mainly along the Divide, but do not expect much of
this activity to reach the lower valleys. Gusty outflow winds will
be common in the vicinity of these showers. Tomorrow will not be
much different as the low gradually moves over Idaho. The dry
slot begins to moderate so there may be a slight uptick in
afternoon convection with the Divide being favored once again.
High temperatures end up very similar both days with near normal
to 5 degrees below average.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 116 AM MDT Thu Jun 8 2023

On Saturday a strong low pressure makes landfall over California,
but conditions here do not change much. Afternoon convection
along the Divide is possible and highs are very similar. On Sunday
the low moves over southern CA and the associated jet spreads
across our region. Another dry slot is expected with this system,
but remnant moisture lingers in the northern portions of the
forecast area. This jet along with diffluence aloft will increase
forcing compared to previous days. Therefore the coverage of
afternoon convection should ramp up mainly north of I-70.
Instability should also increase along the dry slot and moisture
gradient. The combo of shear aloft and instability could result in
a few stronger storms. On Monday the low pressure continues
tracking eastward, but there are some timing differences with the
models. They do agree that as the week progresses this system
becomes an open wave over our region or close by. It may bring
more moisture and perhaps provide some forcing. For now consensus
is that the northern half of the forecast area and the Divide have
the better chances for precipitation. Other than minor daily
fluctuations the temperatures for the most part are similar
through the extended forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 449 AM MDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Conditions dry out today so most sites will not have afternoon
storms like previous days. A bulk of the convection will be along
the Divide. A gusty outflow could reach one the sites otherwise
VFR conditions are expected. Terrain-driven winds will prevail
most of the period.


Issued at 116 AM MDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Drier conditions begin to mix in the forecast area starting
today. As a result, expect a downturn in thunderstorm activity as
we head into the weekend. River and stream forecasts follow suit,
with a downward trend in stage/flow through the 10-day period.




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