Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 032344

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
544 PM MDT Fri Apr 3 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Apr 3 2020

A mainly sunny afternoon continues today over eastern Utah and
western Colorado. Temperatures are running below normal today
in the wake of yesterday`s cold front. Some convective cumulus
cloud cover has developed over the higher terrain of the central
mountains given ample surface heating today, and a few high clouds
have begun drifting in from the west. As prior discussions have
mentioned, a shallow wave will pass through the western slope
overnight tonight into Saturday morning around the base of the
broad western trough. This wave will result in increased cloud
cover and a very slight chance for some precipitation in the form
of light snow in the higher terrain of the central and southern
mountains. Any accumulations will be extremely light, less than an
inch, and limited to areas over 11,000 feet. A partly cloudy day
is in the forecast for Saturday as this wave pulls eastward.
Southwesterly flow aloft will result in a warm air advection
regime and thus warmer surface temperatures during the day.
Southwesterly flow will also transport some mid and upper-level
moisture in from the west, resulting in a continuous stream of
cirrus clouds throughout the entire Saturday/Saturday night
timeframe. By late Saturday night into Sunday morning, a weak wave
ejecting eastward around a new Pacific trough may support a few
isolated showers in the northern mountains of Utah and Colorado.
Forecast confidence is high through the short term with models in
excellent agreement. Only minimal adjustments to Temperatures and
mountain PoP chances were done in this forecast package.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Apr 3 2020

Energy propagating through the Pacific NW trough may support
isolated mountain showers developing Sunday, focused along the
Continental Divide and the eastern Uintas. Meanwhile, the
remaining forecast area resides under steady southwest flow as the
PacNW trough drops south along the West Coast. WAA will continue
to rise temperatures well above normal by Sunday, and carry
through mid week next week. Models continue to struggle with the
evolution of this closed low and its impacts for the CWA. The GFS
continues to portray a faster track, with the low sweeping across
the Desert Southwest Wednesday, returning moisture to the region
by Wednesday night into Thursday. The 12Z GFS run also keeps the
central of the low along or just south of the Colorado/New Mexico
border, which would provide an ample amount of moisture transport
into the Southern San Juans Wednesday night through Thursday
morning. The slower evolution of the Euro`s 12Z run postpones
precipitation from reach the CWA until Thursday morning, with the
closed low lifting into an open wave directly over western
Colorado. Though both solutions continue to show widespread
precipitation over eastern Utah and western Colorado by mid to
late next week, the confidence in timing and favorable ranges for
snow accumulation remain low.

Temperatures ahead of this system are consistently warm, thus,
forecast confidence remains high with a gradual warming trend
through Wednesday. Temperatures will likely drop 10-15 degrees by


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 541 PM MDT Fri Apr 3 2020

VFR conditions remain in place as high clouds drift in from the
northwest. Guidance showing these broken to overcast skies staying
around 20K feet for much of the overnight hours so shouldn`t be
much concern for aviators. The high level clouds will linger into
tomorrow for much of the CWA and start leaving the region from
about 18Z onwards. Ceilings will remain high-based. Some gusty
winds are possible tomorrow afternoon with most gusts in the 20 to
25kt range...maybe a few reaching 30kts.




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