Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 140555
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
155 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will move east overnight as a warm
front lifts northeast into the region. Low pressure tracking
across the Great Lakes on Sunday will bring a threat for showers
and thunderstorms Sunday late afternoon into Sunday night. High
pressure and dry air are expected to move back in for Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
For tonight, under a west to northwest flow aloft, a surface
ridge across the middle Ohio Valley will move east while a warm
front associated with low pressure across the western Great
Lakes lifts northeast into the region. Our area can expect a mix
of mid and high level clouds along with an increase in
southerly flow as the surface pressure gradient tightens. It
should remain dry. Lows will range from the mid 40s to the lower
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
Skies will remain mostly clear during the first part of Sunday
while the region becomes warm sectored and a low pressure system
advances across the Great Lakes. As the low continues to move
quickly east Sunday afternoon and evening, clouds and winds will
increase and showers and thunderstorms may develop along a
boundary trailing across Ohio from the low. Thanks to ample
instability and potent wind fields near the boundary, some
strong to severe storms will be possible, mainly east of Dayton
along I-70. While we are in a marginal risk for severe weather
on the SPC day 2 outlook, a better threat for severe
thunderstorms will exist to the east of ILN where deeper
moisture and stronger instability will be present.

Temperatures boosted by warm advection on the southwest low
level flow are forecast to reach the mid and upper 70s, followed
by lows Sunday night in the low 50s to around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak influence of high pressure will keep the forecast dry for
much of the CWA on Monday. A mild air mass will be in place and
allow for surface temperatures to reach the mid to upper 70s for
most, with perhaps some locations south of the OH River hitting
the 80 degree mark.

The pattern quickly turns active however for the rest of the
work week. A longwave H5 trough will carve its way through the
southern CONUS. By Tuesday, a surface low will have developed
and strengthened on the lee side of the Rockies. An elongated
warm front from this low will stretch eastward into the Ohio
Valley, placing ILN firmly in the warm sector for most of
Tuesday. Scattered showers and a few storms expected in this
warm sector of the low. As the surface low continues to trek
eastward, better forcing will create better chances for
showers/storms, with the best coverage expected on Wednesday
with the approaching cold front.

Slightly cooler air settles into the region on Thursday, but
temperatures still remain near or just above seasonal normals. A
shortwave feature to our north keeps PoPs in the forecast
through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Aside from some cirrus filtering in through daybreak, mainly
clear skies are expected for the first part of the TAF period
before a FEW/SCT mid clouds move through during the heart of the
morning hours. Some Cu development is expected very late in the
day near/N of I-70 for KDAY/KCMH/KLCK close to 00z as a front
sags S into the area during the evening hours. Still some
uncertainties regarding convective coverage along the front
itself, but data continues to suggest the best potential for a
few TSRA will be near KCMH/KLCK between about 00z-06z. But
certainly some activity may be possible near KDAY/KILN during
this time period as well. Did not have confidence to go beyond a
VCTS at this point, but a TEMPO may eventually be warranted at
KCMH/KLCK should trends indicate slightly better coverage of
TSRA.

VFR CIGs will be maintained until close to 12z Monday where some
MVFR CIGs will be possible as the front continues to shift S.

Light southerly flow early in the TAF period will gradually
increase through the morning hours, becoming gusty after about
14z-15z or so. SW winds of 15-20kts, with gusts of 25-30kts, are
expected late morning through mid afternoon before slowly
subsiding a bit into early evening. Light/VRB winds should exist
near the front itself around 06z before winds go out of the N at
5-10kts by 12z Monday (progressively from N to S).

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Sunday night, then again
Tuesday into Wednesday night. Brief MVFR CIGs possible Monday
morning. MVFR conditions are also possible Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio/Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...KC


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