786
FXUS61 KILN 101037
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
637 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Weak cold front will move south of the area by early this morning
with a few showers behind the front.

2) Showers and possibly some thunderstorms expected Tuesday night
into Wednesday.

3) Below normal temperatures will warm closer to normal for mid week.
A bigger warm up will occur next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Cold front south of I-71 south southeast this morning.There are a few
showers falling out of a mid deck as a weak mid level impulse moves
through. Probability of measurable rainfall remains quite low.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop south and east of
the area with heating this afternoon. It is not out of the question
that as this initiates, it could start in far southeastern counties
of the forecast area before quickly moving off.


KEY MESSAGE 2)
A robust short wave moving through the Canadian Plains on Monday will
drop southeast and amplify as it moves across the Great Lakes through
mid week. Much of the guidance suite has trended towards a slightly
slower deepening which is resulting in the trough digging more to the
east of the area. There is slightly greater spread in the 500 mb
height forecast, but that may be a result of the slight shift in
depth and track. Cold front will sweep through the area on Wednesday.
Showers and possibly some thunderstorms will occur out ahead of this
during the overnight hours Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
With the mid level forcing trending slightly more northeast, it is
possible that coverage of precipitation may decrease markedly by the
time it reaches areas near and south of the Ohio River. Still not out
of the question that there could be some recovery in the wake of the
initial showers to allow instability to develop into southeast
counties before the front clear the area which could result in more
showers and thunderstorms into the afternoon in that region.


KEY MESSAGE 3)
In the wake of the cold front this morning, temperatures will be a
bit cooler. Slightly below normal readings will continue into Monday
night. Temperatures will then warm a bit in advance of the cold
front on Wednesday. Another modest and brief cool down will occur
Wednesday night into Thursday. A substantial warming trend will
follow heading into the end of the week as what has been persistent
mid level troughing in eastern North America moves out, allowing
broad ridging to spread eastward.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR will prevail through the period with mid to high clouds. Cannot
rule out a brief shower early in the period, but even if that occurs
at any of the terminals, do not expect any change in flight category.
North winds will back to the northwest this afternoon and then veer
back to the north after 00Z all at speeds of 10 kt or less.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...