583
FXUS63 KIND 261437
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
937 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong wind gusts up to 35mph possible Monday afternoon and evening

- Overall breezy early-mid next week, above normal Tuesday-Wednesday

- Next chances of organized precipitation next Friday and Saturday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 937 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2025

- Mostly Cloudy/Partly Sunny but cooler this afternoon

Surface analysis this morning shows high pressure over the
southeastern states. Another area of high pressure was found over
the plains. Between these two highs a weak cold front or cusp was
found stretching from Arkansas, through KY to WV.  This resulted in
the high over the plains states controlling our weather with a
cooler NW flow in place.  Aloft, water vapor imagery showed a nearly
zonal flow in place, with a steady stream of mid and high level
moisture streaming across the the plains and into the Ohio valley.
Temperatures were in the 20s across the forecast area.

The surface high to the west is expected to continue to build east
across Indiana this afternoon, keeping a dry and cool west-northwest
flow in place across the area. Forecast soundings continue to show
dry air in the lower levels with saturation aloft. This saturation
is indicative of the plentiful mid and high cloud as seen on GOES16,
streaming through the region. Overall ongoing forecast appears in
good shape and mostly cloudy/partly sunny will work fine. Look for
highs in the lower 30s, with a few middle 30s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 301 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2025

Today.

Dry and quiet weather is expected for today with slightly cooler
temperatures compared to Saturday in the aftermath of the weak
frontal passage Saturday evening. While model soundings showed
saturation, little to no forcing or lift associated with the frontal
passage has prevented even a few flurries. Zonal flow aloft is
expected to continue through the day today with plenty of mid and
high level clouds upstream which should keep cloud cover mostly
cloudy through the day. Surface flow will become slightly more
northwesterly by the afternoon at around 10 mph. Highs today will
climb into the low 30s but without more robust sunlight, don`t
expect much additional melting of the residual snow.

Tonight.

Surface winds will gradually begin to become more southwesterly
during the overnight hours with skies gradually beginning to clear
as the upper level flow becomes northwesterly and begins to advect
drier air aloft. As clearing moves in from the northwest to
southeast, expect to see some temperature spread across the forecast
area with lows in the mid teens in the north compared to the low 20s
in the south where clear skies may not arrive until near daybreak.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 301 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2025

A relatively quiet and significantly milder stretch of weather is
likely for the long term period, with some minor exceptions.

A more progressive weather pattern sets up for much of the country
this next week as the polar jet retreats to the north, keeping the
bulk of the arctic air in Canada. An subtropical jet remains strong,
yet quasi-zonal and should stay south of the Ohio Valley, leaving
much of the region in an area of upper level convergence and sinking
air. Broad surface high pressure will generally be in control across
the southeastern and central CONUS, while multiple systems traverse
through the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest. This will allow for
mostly dry conditions over the weekend into mid week next week, and
for temperatures to moderate significantly, with highs and lows much
closer to seasonal normals.

At the surface, high pressure becomes centered over the Gulf states
for the first half of the new week with warm air advection kicking
out the colder airmass in place allowing for moderating
temperatures. Indiana will be sandwiched in the middle of high
pressure to the south and numerous low pressure systems moving
across the northern CONUS, resulting in strong westerly flow as the
low level pressure gradient tightens and a LLJ moves in overhead.
Most of the energy and moisture with the northern stream systems
will remain north of the region with high pressure keeping a much
drier airmass in place. The main impacts from these passing lows to
the north will be a reinforcing shot of cooler air in the Great
Lakes creating a sharper SW-NE temperature gradient across the state
and gusty winds. Deeper mixing and steeper low level lapse rates
Monday will result in winds 10-20 mph and gusts 25-35 mph Monday
afternoon and highs reaching the upper 30s to low 40s. A similar
pattern remains in place midweek as weak, moisture starved fronts
pass by through the Great Lakes. From Mon-Wed, bumped lows and highs
toward the NBM75-90th percentiles to account for guidance underdoing
the warm air advection the country comes out of the arctic weather
pattern. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday could even push the 50 degree
mark for South Central Indiana if deeper low level mixing occurs.

A stronger area of low pressure, associated with the northern branch
of the jet, moves into the Great Lakes and Northeast Wednesday into
Thursday. While this system does swing a cold front through
Wednesday night, the progressive pattern in place will prevent the
"colder" air front sticking around long. A brief drop in
temperatures expected Thursday; however a moderating trend quickly
returns for the weekend. Cross sectional views and mid range
guidance shows the potnetial for very light precipitation with the
frontal passage Wednesday night. Chances look very low at this
point, so will keep the forecast dry for now, but may have to add
sprinkles or flurries in the coming days.

The next opportunity for precipitation will come toward the end of
the forecast period towards next Saturday, as a closed low, which
will slowly drift through California and the Desert Southwest next
week, begins to pull northeast toward the Great Lakes and be
reabsorbed into a larger longwave trough shifting eastward into the
central US. Guidance today has trended slower with this system
bringing precipitation closer to Indiana Saturday morning rather
than Friday. Will go ahead and lower PoPs Friday and increase them
for Saturday based on latest Ensemble and deterministic trends.
Confidence is increasing that Indiana will be on the warmer side of
this system with the majority of the precipitation falling as rain
and highs potentially reaching the 50 degree mark.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 558 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2025

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with ceilings at
around 12-15kft. Westerly winds of 8-10kts will gradually become
more northwesterly by the early afternoon. Winds will then become
southwesterly towards 06Z with skies clearing.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Puma
SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...CM
AVIATION...White