Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 171500

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
958 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

The Near Term section has been updated below.


Issued at 334 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

There are a couple chances of precipitation through the week; on
Sunday night, Tuesday, and the best chance around Thursday.
Otherwise, expect dry conditions. Overall temperatures will be
fairly seasonable with highs in the 40s and lows in the low 30s.
Wednesday and Thursday will be warmer though as highs are
currently forecasted to be in the 50s.


.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...

Issued at 958 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

Going forecast is on track and no appreciable changes made. Previous
discussion follows...

Most of the day will be dry but an approaching trough will bring a
chance of precipitation later in the day. Clouds are going to
increase in coverage from the west ahead of the front. Slight PoPs
are in the forecast for the NW portion of the forecast area
starting this afternoon. High temperatures will be in the mid 40s
with winds from 2 to 7 kts, starting out from the east and
transitioning to southerly throughout the day as the front


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday night/...

Issued at 334 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

A slightly negatively tilted trough will move across central
Indiana tonight and into Monday morning. Best chance of precip
will be after 00z through the overnight hours, mainly for the NW
portion of the forecast area. Some snow could mix in during the
early morning hours. Did increase the PoPs for tonight compared to
what guidance suggested. As the trough progresses east, moisture
is expected to dissipate over the area before sunrise Monday.
Higher pressures will begin to move in Tuesday but a short wave
could bring a slight chance of precip Tuesday morning but
confidence is low at this point as high pressure will be in place
and not seeing enough moisture.

Winds will from southwesterly to northwesterly with speeds from 5
to 10 kts. Highs will be in the 40s and lows in the low to mid


.LONG TERM (Wednesday Through Saturday)...
Issued at 252 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

The National Blend of Models initialization was accepted for most

Models agree that Wednesday will be dry, but then a low pressure
system will bring a round of rain to the area Wednesday night into
Thursday. Temperatures may actually return to near normal to a
little above normal for Wednesday and Thursday.

Uncertainty then quickly increases for the remainder of the long
term period, with the models having different ideas on how an upper
low will eject from the southwest USA and on the resultant surface
low pressure system.

For now just decided to basically stay close to the intialization
given the uncertainty. This keeps most areas dry Friday into Friday
night, then some low PoPs on Saturday. However, the latest runs of
the GFS and ECMWF now have dry conditions Saturday. Temperatures
will return to below normal to end the long term.

Even greater differences in the models appear just beyond the long
term period, for next Sunday.


.AVIATION (Discussion for the 171500Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 926 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

MVFR visibilities at KHUF should improve to VFR by around 15z.
Otherwise VFR conditions are expected through much of the period.
MVFR moves in late tonight. Winds will remain light and variable.

A gradual increase in high and then mid cloud can be expected today,
with clouds continuing to lower tonight, eventually into MVFR
category late.

There may be some patchy light rain this afternoon west and light
rain/snow most sites this evening, but odds of any impacting a TAF
site are too low to mention.




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