Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 130017
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
817 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will gradually shift away into southeastern Canada
while high pressure builds across the South through the first half
of the weekend. Another area of low pressure and its associated cold
front will drop through the Mid-Atlantic Sunday into Monday. This
front will likely stall just to the south Tuesday, then lift
northward as a warm front mid week. A third cold front may approach
by late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A reinforcing cold front is moving through the area tonight.
The strongest wind field will move in behind this front. It`s
likely that many locations will remain windy through the night,
especially in the mountains. Latest BUFKIT soundings indicate
40-50 kts at 1-3 kft, but with some lingering moisture and only
modest pressure rises. Given this and the timing overnight, have
only made a slight expansion to the Wind Advisory in the lee of
the Catoctins/Blue Ridge Mountains where downsloping should aid
in bringing down 45-50 mph wind gusts. It may end up being close
into the DC/Baltimore metro areas as well after midnight.

Lows overnight should be in the 40s to lower 50s for most, with
30s in the mountains. A few upslope snow showers may be
possible late tonight across the highest terrain (over 3000 ft).
In those locations, a brief coating of snow is possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The tighter pressure gradient will continue across the area
through parts of the day on Saturday as the low pressure system
continues to push further off to the north of the region. Before
then, gusty winds will continue to impact the area through
Saturday afternoon at least. Confidence has increased in higher
gusts tomorrow, therefore the Wind Advisory has been extended to
include all zones near and west of the Blue Ridge. Further
extensions may be needed leading up to the day on Saturday.
Clouds will likely begin to clear out by the afternoon hours on
Saturday, with mostly dry conditions expected. Highs will top
out in the mid to upper 60s for the lower elevations with 50s
across the mountains Saturday afternoon. Overnight lows will
drop down into the 40s Saturday night, with winds diminishing
out of the west-northwest.

Southwest flow will build in on Sunday, with a weak shortwave
moving across to the north. A few showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening with
highs rising back into the mid to upper 70s for most areas.
Shower chances continue Sunday night with lows dropping down
into the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front will slide across the region Monday and Monday
night. A lingering rain shower could accompany the front.
Otherwise, dry conditions and warm temperatures in the 70s are
expected during the period with Monday night temperatures 7 to
10 degrees cooler than Sunday night`s lows with the passing
front.

The front will stall briefly across northern parts of North Carolina
before returning north as a warm front Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night. Additional showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two
could develop along and ahead of the warm front in our CWA. Highs on
Tuesday will again reach the middle 70s.

As the warm front moves north into Pennsylvania on Wednesday, rain
showers and a few thunderstorms could erupt with additional daytime
heating and temperatures reaching the middle to upper 70s.

A low pressure system will move across the Great Lakes with a
trailing cold front that is expected to move across our region
Thursday into Thursday night. Most of the region will be dry to
start Thursday into midday, before daytime heating and additional
warmth and moisture triggers showers and thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon. Highs on Thursday should make a run at the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Winds will continue to be quite gusty out of the west-southwest
tonight, and remain gusty out of the west-northwest Saturday.
Gusts of 30 to 40 knots should be common through Saturday
afternoon. A few showers are possible this evening. Drier
conditions are expected this weekend. It will remain breezy on
Sunday with winds out of the southwest gusting to around 15-25
knots.

VFR conditions Monday through early Tuesday. Winds northwest 10 to
15 knots gusts up to 20 knots Monday and Monday night. Winds
becoming northeast then southeast 5 to 10 knots Tuesday and Tuesday
night.

&&

.MARINE...
A reinforcing cold front will move through tonight, causing
winds to turn west-northwesterly tomorrow. Gale Warnings remain
in effect for all waters through the day tomorrow. Gusts to
near, or potentially even in excess of 40 knots will be possible
over the waters during that time. Additional SCAs will likely
be needed within southwesterly flow Sunday into early Monday AM.

No marine hazards Monday through Tuesday night. Winds northwest 10
to 15 knots Monday and Monday night. Winds becoming northeast around
10 knots Tuesday and Tuesday night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A strong offshore flow has developed and this will continue through
Saturday before gradually weakening Saturday evening. Anomalies will
continue to fall during this time. Anomalies will fall sharply
tonight through Saturday, and lower water levels are likely
later Saturday into Saturday night around times of low tide. The
change from high anomalies to lower anomalies will cause a
strong current during this time.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ001-003-004-501-
     502.
VA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for VAZ025>031-040-501-
     503>505-507-508.
WV...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for WVZ050>053-055-
     501>506.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ADM
NEAR TERM...DHOF/KJP/ADM
SHORT TERM...ADM
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...KLW/DHOF/ADM
MARINE...KLW/DHOF/ADM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX


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