Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
206 FXUS61 KLWX 270127 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 927 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will build to our north overnight and Saturday, before becoming established offshore early next week. Precipitation chances return by mid to late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... A couple of showers in the central Shenandoah Valley will move to the south of our region over the next few hours. Otherwise, expect dry conditions overnight with lows in the lower 60s for most areas aside from the Allegheny Front where the lower to mid 50s may be possible. High pressure will dominate the area this weekend. This will allow for mostly sunny skies and lower humidity to persist. Air temperatures will still be slightly above normal with low 90s expected across the lower elevations. Winds will remain light and variable as the high lingers around the region. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will linger Saturday night through Sunday night. Lows Saturday night will be in teh lower to middle 60s. Mostly sunny skies expected on Sunday. Temperatures will be slightly above normal with low 90s expected across the lower elevations. Can`t rule out a stray shower across the far southwest areas by late Sunday night into early Monday morning. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... By Monday, upper troughing will move into the Upper Midwest, while a cutoff upper low circulates off the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England coastline. Over time, the trough over the center of the country will slowly translate eastward. Induced southerly flow over the upper low`s circulation will draw it north or northwestward toward the Northeast US, but models differ significantly with respect to its exact placement by Tuesday. The cutoff low should depart well off to our northeast by Wednesday, but weak upper level troughing should remain overhead through Wednesday and Thursday. At the surface, high pressure will remain in place offshore, maintaining southerly flow locally. Continued southerly flow will lead to increasing low-level moisture. Much of Monday should remain dry, with just low end chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially to the west of the Blue Ridge. Chances for diurnal showers and thunderstorms will increase for Tuesday through Thursday as low-level moisture increases and the upper trough approaches from the west. Temperatures should stay within a few degrees of seasonal normals, with highs mostly in the upper 80s and lower 90s. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Light winds and VFR conditions are expected for the weekend with high pressure dominating the Mid- Atlantic. Prevailing VFR conditions and southerly winds are expected on both Monday and Tuesday. Thunderstorms may lead to temporary drops to sub- VFR conditions on Tuesday afternoon. && .MARINE... Winds will continue to be light and variable through much of the weekend as a result of high pressure over the waters. Cannot rule out an occasional gust to 10-15 knots during the afternoon and evening hours. Winds may near low-end SCA levels in channeled southerly flow on both Monday and Tuesday afternoon. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Weak return flow as high pressure lingers to the north into the weekend will allow for some of the more sensitive tidal locations like Annapolis to reach Action Stage Saturday and maybe even touching Minor Flood Stage by Sunday`s high tide cycle. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ADM NEAR TERM...KLW/ADM SHORT TERM...ADM LONG TERM...KJP AVIATION...KLW/KJP MARINE...KLW/KJP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KLW