251
FXUS64 KMEG 160502
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1145 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

- A heat wave will begin today and persist through Friday. Heat
  indices will range between 105 and 110F each afternoon with
  little relief expected at night.

- An areawide Heat Advisory is in effect for Wednesday afternoon
  with heat indices of up to 110 possible for much of the region.

- Triple digit heat indices may persist into the upcoming weekend
  with another round of excessive heat next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

The latest GOES water vapor imagery shows a weakening shortwave
over Middle Tennessee, an upper level low developing off the west
coast of Florida, and a 593 dam ridge building into the Southern
Mississippi Valley.

A heat wave will begin today and persist through at least Friday.
The aforementioned ridge will continue to build north across the
Lower Mississippi Valley in response to the Bermuda High expanding
into the Southeastern United States. Excessive humidity and
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will generate heat indices
between 105 to 110F each day. NBM guidance is becoming better
aligned with HREF, generating only 10-20 PoPs both today and
Thursday. The current Heat Advisory was expanded areawide for
today and there is increasing confidence that it will need to be
extended into Thursday evening.

Friday through this weekend`s forecast remains a bit more
uncertain as a tropical disturbance organizes in the Gulf. The NHC
has given the system a 40% chance of development over the next 48
hours. The track and strength of this system will heavily impact
the heat and rainfall forecast for the Mid-South from Friday and
into the weekend. To complicate things further, a weak cold front
will approach the Mid-South on Friday and serve as a focus for
heavy rainfall. There is quite a bit to sort out for this upcoming
weekend`s forecast and the tropical system will dictate quite a
bit. Nonetheless, triple digit heat indices and increasing
convective coverage looks most plausible at this point.

The long term forecast features a potential extreme heat wave as
an expansive upper level ridge builds into southern belt of the
United States. Both ENS and GEFS solutions advertise a 595 dam
ridge over the Mid-South by midweek, yielding high temperatures in
the upper 90s and heat indices near or above 110F each day.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Biggest concern this issuance is convection and a large wind shift
to the west over the next few hours associated with a large
outflow boundary. Given uncertainty on sporadic storms along this
boundary, VCTS at JBR/MEM/MKL looked to be the best way to handle
said storms. Overnight, fog is expected to develop at MKL/TUP as
winds go calm and pockets of clear skies move over both terminals.
Fog should lift by sunrise. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail across the airspace. South/southwest winds will remain sub
10 kts over the next 30 hours or so.

AEH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Benign fire weather conditions will persist over the next 7 days.
Very high heat and humidity will occur today through Friday with
a slight cool down over the weekend. Next week, excessive heat
will build into the region.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ001>017-
     020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...AEH