Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 281750

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1150 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2020


Updated for aviation discussion


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1122 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2020/


One shortwave has pushed east of the Mid-South this morning
leaving some lingering clouds near the Tennessee River. A second
shortwave will move into Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri
Bootheel, and Northwest Tennessee later this afternoon. As a
result, expect increasing clouds across areas north of I-40 and
for some showers to develop in association with the shortwave.
Can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm or two as well. If a
thunderstorm does develop, the thunderstorm would be capable of
producing pea-size hail due to the cold temperatures aloft. Have
made some minor tweaks to sky conditions and high temperatures
near the Tennessee River. Otherwise, current forecast looks good.
Update will be out shortly.


DISCUSSION... /issued 411 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2020/

Late-night GOES water vapor imagery shows a short wave over
western Arkansas bringing light showers across west Tennessee.
Showers should mix with light snow or flurries in the next couple
hours over northwest Tennessee as the freezing line continues to
drop south from north-central Missouri. Flurries will likely
change over to showers by sunrise, then have a brief period of
little to no showers from 6 AM until about noon. Another shortwave
will push through the area ahead of a ridge to our west,
providing the potential for thunderstorm development. Point click
soundings show minimal amount of instability, moderate amounts of
shear and adequate moisture over northeast Arkansas, the Missouri
Bootheel and west Tennessee. The main threat with these storms
will be gusty winds. Expect highs in the lower 50s today.

A ridge will settle over the Mid-South later tonight, delivering
a pleasant weekend and sunshine. Temperatures will be back to
near normal with highs ranging from the mid to upper 50s. Then
even warmer temperatures will occur on Sunday as the ridge
retrogrades eastward. Southerly winds and warm air advection will
allow highs to warm into the mid to upper 60s.

Unfortunately, this lovely weather won`t last long, as fast zonal
flow will develop behind the ridge Sunday morning, tightening the
pressure gradient and providing gusty winds across the region.
Moisture will pull in from the Gulf, allowing showers to develop
across the area Sunday evening.

Models have been decently consistent on rain moving into the area
Monday through Wednesday of next week with the ECMWF and GFS
pushing a strong cold front through the area Monday. This frontal
boundary development will then orient itself parallel to the upper
flow. With that being said, the feature won`t move much and with
expended periods of heavy rainfall as surface energy repeatedly
moves northeast along the boundary. Ensembles haven`t changed too
much, with the potential for to 4 inches through early Thursday.
If this happens, it will aggravate the rivers, and continue
flooding... will continue to monitor.




VFR conds this afternoon with another upper level disturbance
getting set to move through the area this evening. Expect SHRAs
and possibly a few TSRAs across mainly west TN this evening. KMKL
stands the best chance of seeing a SHRA or TSRA on station.
Elsewhere went with VCSH for this evening. Skies clear out after
midnight. WNW winds around 10 kts with some higher gusts this
afternoon diminishing this evening. Winds will shift to NW behind
the disturbance while remaining light.




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