510
FXUS64 KMEG 151223
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
723 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 645 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

- Another round of severe weather is expected today across the
  Mid-South especially east of the Mississippi River. All hazards
  are possible including damaging winds, tornadoes, and large
  hail. A couple of tornadoes could be strong and long-tracked
  over northeast Mississippi. Additional heavy rainfall may result
  in flash flooding across portions of West Tennessee and
  Northeast Mississippi. Additional storms will form this morning
  and persist through this evening.

- Dry weather returns to the Mid-South for Sunday through Tuesday.
  Temperatures will cool on Sunday before warming back into the
  low to mid 70s by Tuesday.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible by the middle
  of next week as another upper-level trough moves through the
  Mississippi Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 540 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

GOES-16 satellite trends indicate a negatively-tilted trough
departing the Mid-South early this morning. Regional WSR-88D radar
trends show showers and thunderstorms continuing mainly over north
Mississippi. Elsewhere, upstream convective activity to the west
has diminished briefly due to a lack of upper-level support.
Temperatures as of 3 AM CDT range from the middle 60s to lower
70s.

A very active and dangerous day is expected across the Mid-South
as another potent shortwave trough rotates through the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Latest trends suggest instability should
recover across the Mid-South today as strong low-level jet advects
additional low level moisture up into the region. Very steep mid-
level lapse rates, moderate instability, and deep layer shear are
supportive for the development of additional severe thunderstorms
across the area. In addition, short-term model soundings show
favorable hodographs to produce all hazards across the area,
especially across northeast Mississippi where the potential may
exist for strong, long track tornadoes. Additional showers and
thunderstorms may result in the potential for flash flooding
across portions of West Tennessee and northeast Mississippi where
a Flood watch remains in effect.

Showers and thunderstorms will gradually come to an end this
evening as high pressure builds into the Lower Mississippi Valley
through early next week. Long-term models indicate the
potential for additional showers and thunderstorms towards the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 721 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect most sites
today. As of 12Z, showers and thunderstorms stretch along a line
from CKM to MKL with a temporary break at JBR and TUP. This
activity will spread north across the remainder of the area this
morning with additional showers and thunderstorms moving through
this afternoon along a cold front. S winds will veer W/NW behind
the front tonight.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for ARZ009-018-026>028-
     035-036-048.

MO...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...Flood Watch through late tonight for MSZ003>006-009-013>017-
     021>024.

TN...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for TNZ001>003-019-020-
     048>051-088-089.

     Flood Watch through late tonight for TNZ004-021-022-052>055-
     090>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...CJC