


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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833 FXUS66 KMTR 182308 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 408 PM PDT Fri Jul 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 209 PM PDT Fri Jul 18 2025 - Seasonal temperatures through the end of the weekend. Below normal temperatures return Monday. - Localized elevated fire weather threat continues across the higher elevations with dry conditions expected this weekend. - Winds strengthen Sunday and Monday along the coast, the higher terrain, and mountain gaps/passes. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 209 PM PDT Fri Jul 18 2025 (This evening through Saturday) While the morning was overcast across much of the region, stratus has now dissipated across much of the interior. Building high pressure is expected to compress the marine layer to around 1500 feet tonight. This is still a fairly deep marine layer so we can expect stratus to return across much of the Bay Area and Central Coast by late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Stratus will clear by late tomorrow morning across the interior with clearing occurring for portions of the coastline. Further compression of the marine layer is expected Saturday night into Sunday as high pressure strengthens over the Central Coast with the marine layer depth dropping to around 1200 feet. Seasonal temperatures will continue again on Saturday as a slight warming trend continues. For the Bay Area, temperatures will stay in the upper 70s to low 80s along the bay shoreline with highs in the mid to upper 80s farther inland. Coastal areas will remain comparatively cooler with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s on Saturday. The interior Central Coast however will be quite a bit warmer with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. Portions of far southern Monterey County in the vicinity of Fort Hunter Liggett, Bradley, and Parkfield have 40% chance of temperatures reaching the 100 degree mark. Temperatures cool down into the 50s overnight across the Salinas Valley and upper 50s to mid 60s across the higher terrain. This results in Minor HeatRisk across the Bay Area and Central Coast with only a few pixels of Moderate HeatRisk in the Los Padres National Forest. Localized fire weather concerns continue in particular for the interior Central Coast and East Bay Hills. For the interior Central Coast, daytime conditions are expected to further dry Saturday and poor daytime humidity values between 13 to 25 percent expected. Fortunately, winds remain light and onshore across the higher terrain, where the driest conditions are, which will help mitigate concerns a little. The Salinas Valley, comparatively, will continue to experience breezy afternoon/evening winds with gusts to around 30 to 35 mph. Conditions are not quite as dry in the Salinas Valley but occasional moderate gusts (up to 25 mph) may push into the far southern Salinas Valley (vicinity of Bradley) where conditions are drier. For the East Bay Hills, we can expect dry daytime conditions (humidity values between 25 to 30%) and breezy afternoon winds to around 35 mph across mountain gaps/passes to continue through the remainder of the weekend. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 209 PM PDT Fri Jul 18 2025 (Saturday night through next Thursday) Weather wise, Sunday looks to be a repeat of Saturday with temperatures in the upper 70s to 80s across the interior with a few hot spots in the East Bay reaching the low 90s. Highs across the interior Central Coast will start cool, if ever so slightly, with highs peaking in the mid to upper 90s compared to upper 90s to low 100s anticipated on Saturday. While high pressure remains situated over much of California on Sunday, it does start to break down late in the day as another upper level trough moves into California. As this trough approaches, it will increase onshore flow and allow gusty winds to develop Sunday afternoon along the coast and across mountain gaps/passes throughout the interior. Gusty winds will become more widespread on Monday across the North Bay, San Pablo and Suisun Bays, along the delta, and across the East Bay hills (emphasizing mountain gaps/passes). Gusts are expected to peak around 30 mph across the North Bay but will peak closer to 35-40 mph across portions of the delta and East Bay Hills (Altamont Pass). Hopefully you aren`t tired of No Sky July and comparatively mild temperatures as the arrival of this trough will also kick off a cooling trend and bring a return to below normal temperatures across the region. Temperatures across the interior will drop back into the 70s to low 80s and remain that way through the end of the week as troughing continues. The exception will again be the interior Central Coast where temperatures will only drop into the upper 80s to low 90s. All in all, the CPC indicates below normal temperatures are likely to persist through late July with near normal temperatures to persist into the first few days of August. In terms of fire weather concerns, localized concerns will still exist across the highest elevations but the return of upper level troughing will help to mitigate more widespread concerns. Increased onshore flow will allow for modest improvements in daytime humidity values starting Monday. This is most noticeable across the interior Central Coast where daytime minimum values will improve from around 13 to 20% over the weekend to 20 to 30% by early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 408 PM PDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Patchy MVFR stratus persists at the immediate coast with generally VFR conditions elsewhere. Breezy and gusty onshore flow continues through the evening, then diminishing to light winds overnight. High confidence for MVFR-IFR stratus returning to most of the terminals overnight through Saturday morning, with clearing times later than today`s with a slightly compressed marine layer. Low probabilities of LIFR ceilings are also present overnight through Saturday morning, with the greatest potential in the North Bay and Monterey Bay regions. Breezy onshore flow resumes Saturday afternoon. Vicinity of SFO... VFR into the evening hours with breezy and gusty west-northwest winds. Winds diminish in the evening hours with MVFR- IFR stratus coming in overnight, dissipating rather late on Saturday morning. Breezy and gusty northwest winds resume Saturday afternoon. Saturday evening, confidence is low in stratus returning to the terminal before the end of the TAF period, and it might not be until early Sunday morning that stratus impacts begin. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR through the next couple of hours, with stratus overrunning the terminals soon. Ceilings look to be MVFR, descending to IFR with a low probability of LIFR ceilings. Stratus retreats to the immediate coast late Saturday morning with moderate confidence on timing. Breezy northwest winds continue through the evening hours, becoming light overnight before resuming Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 209 PM PDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Light to moderate west or northwest breezes continue across the majority of the coastal waters through this weekend with winds easing into the upcoming week. Gusty winds, potentially hazardous to small craft, develop each afternoon and evening through the Golden Gate, into the Delta, and the favored coastal jets off of Pigeon Point and the Big Sur coastline. Moderate seas persist through the remainder of the forecast period. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...DialH MARINE...RGass Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea