Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 051342 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 942 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure from the midwest will build east today as the remnants of Isaias move north into eastern Canada. A warm front will move toward the southern portions of the forecast area on Thursday and remain stationary into the weekend. High pressure will then reassert itself across much of the area into next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Forecast largely on track this morning as high pressure builds in from the west. However, some energy associated with the aforementioned trough could touch off a few isolated showers or a thunderstorm in the southern areas this afternoon. Temperatures are expected to max out in the low 80s north and upper 80s south, which is near to slightly above normal for this time of year. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... A southwesterly flow at mid-levels of the atmosphere produced by the retreating trough will allow a warm front to approach from the south. An impulse along this front could touch off a few showers and thunderstorms mainly south and east of the I-95 corridor late Wednesday night and on Thursday. High temperatures on Thursday will range from the low to mid 80s, around normal for this time of year. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Thursday night, surface high pressure will be located over New York with the ridge axis extending west across Michigan. This elongated west/east ridge axis is due to a fractured upper level trough axis with the parent upper level low exiting the Canadian Maritime Provinces with weak mid-level energy located over eastern Ontario. As the remnant energy approaches from the west Friday, weak surface cyclogenesis will occur near central VA with the resultant surface low pressure heading out to sea Saturday morning. Only weak DCVA will accompany the system Friday, but PWATs remain around 1.75" though so another round of precipitation appears likely. Saturday into Sunday a slightly quieter period will take shape as the mid-level wave exits the region. Behind the wave, weak subsidence will move overhead with PWATs falling off to around 1.4". This will keep the weekend dry, for the most part. Expect temperatures near to slightly above average for this time of year with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s. By Monday the chance of showers and thunderstorms will return to the Delaware Valley as moisture rich air sweeps north. PWATs Monday will approach 1.80", but the apparent lack of forcing has allowed the forecast to be trended towards more of climo perspective. Expect humid conditions Monday and Tuesday with temperatures above normal. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...VFR conditions expected, but a scattered shower or thunderstorm is possible at the southern TAF sites. Winds mostly W to SW at 5 to 10 knots. Tonight...VFR conditions expected, except in patchy fog during the early morning hours and perhaps a few rain showers late. Mainly light and variable winds. Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions, but showers and thunderstorms could temporarily reduce vsby and ceiling to MVFR at times, especially in the south. Light and variable winds except in any thunderstorms. Outlook... Friday and Saturday...Mostly VFR. Scattered SHRA/TSRA possible each afternoon/evening that would result in brief sub- VFR conditions at a given terminal. Fog may develop during the overnight. Winds east to northeast Friday and Saturday. LGT/VRB at night. Moderate confidence. Sunday... Winds out of the south with mostly dry and VFR conditions. Moderate confidence. && .MARINE... Today...Lingering 5 foot seas in the early morning, then sub-SCA conditions with SW winds around 10 kt. Ocnl gusts to 20 kt possible in the afternoon. Tonight and Thursday...Sub-advisory winds/seas expected, except in any thunderstorms. Outlook... Thursday through Sunday...Sub-advisory winds/seas expected through the period. Chances of showers/storms through the period, especially in the afternoon/evening hours. Rip Currents... The rip current risk will likely remain elevated on Wednesday with light winds out of the southwest. On Thursday wave heights will continue to fall towards 2 feet with with light east winds. This will allow for the rip current risk to be low. && .HYDROLOGY... Between 3 and 6 inches of rain, with localized amounts of 8 to 9 inches, have fallen across much of southeast Pennsylvania, western New Jersey, and Delmarva. Flooding continues across these areas. Please refer to any Flood Warnings for details. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The threat for tidal flooding in association with Isaias has come to an end across the area. The coastal flood advisory will expire as scheduled at 6 am. Fresh water runoff will continue today in tidal portions of the Delaware River, but additional tidal flooding is unlikely. && .EQUIPMENT... The NOAA Weather Radio All-Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park Pennsylvania (Station WNG-704) remains off the air. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Miketta Near Term...MPS Short Term...Miketta Long Term...Haines Aviation...Haines/Miketta Marine...Haines/Miketta Hydrology...WFO PHI Tides/Coastal Flooding...WFO PHI Equipment...WFO PHI

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