988
FXUS63 KPAH 260434
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1134 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cooler weekend is in store before temperatures warm back above
  normal next week.

- Thunderstorm chances return Tuesday through Thursday next
  week. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday
  afternoon and evening and possibly again on Thursday. Heavy
  rainfall amounts in excess of 1 to 2 inches are also possible
  during this period.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Updated Aviation discussion for the 06z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region this
afternoon will continue into the evening before dry conditions
arrive overnight behind a cold frontal passage. The best mid level
forcing has slid east of our region though, so likely will struggle
to get much in the way of organized activity ahead of it. Can`t rule
out an isolated strong storm or two though.

Surface high pressure will become the dominant player in our weather
this weekend. It will be centered across the Western Great Lakes on
Saturday and then drift southeast into Ohio on Sunday. This will
lead to cooler temperatures than recent days. Highs may actually
struggle to get out of the 60s across much of the area, especially
if we see limited sunshine which seems like a good bet. Mid level
energy sliding across the Ozarks on Sunday will generate some
showers across southeast Missouri during the day. Some guidance
tries to bleed this activity east of the Mississippi during the day,
but tend to believe it`ll have a hard time pushing into the dry air
associated with the surface high.

The upper level pattern on Sunday will feature troughing across the
Western U.S. An initial wave of energy looks to eject northeast into
the Upper Midwest Monday night and through the Great Lakes on
Tuesday. Meanwhile, secondary vort energy hangs up over the
Southwest U.S. before lifting northeast across the center of the
country Wednesday into Thursday. Our area resides in southwest flow
aloft through the period. A cold front looks to sink south into the
Ohio Valley late Tuesday through Tuesday night and then gets hung up
either over our region or just to our south on Wednesday. Guidance
than suggests an area of low pressure lifting across the Mississippi
Valley on Thursday, which would likely lead to the front pushing
back north. The end result will be multiple waves of showers and
thunderstorms impacting our area beginning on Tuesday and lingering
through Thursday night until the front finally gets shunted to our
southeast.

Severe thunderstorms remain a concern Tuesday afternoon and evening
but will be dependent on timing of the convection. Instability will
be highest during the late afternoon into early evening before
quickly waning during the overnight period. Meanwhile, the best
shear parameters are off to our northeast during this time, so
really need the better instability in order to get well-organized
activity. After a relative lull on Wednesday, it looks like another
chance for severe storms may develop on Thursday. Wind fields may
actually be stronger with this second system, but instability may
not be as high. A lot will also depend on the track of the surface
low and how far north the warm sector makes it. Another concern
during the mid week period will be heavy rainfall with the boundary
draped somewhere in or nearby resulting in repeated rounds of
convection that could produce amounts in excess of 2 inches across
portions of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Following the passage of a cold front, low-level moisture will
linger, allowing MVFR ceilings to spread across the region
overnight through the morning hours. Ceilings will gradually
scattered and lift to VFR in the 17-21z window, with VFR
conditions forecast thereafter. Winds will be light from the
N-NW overnight, increasing to around 7-12 kts after 15z. Winds
will again relax after 24z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...DWS