Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 161151
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
551 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 551 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 335 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

Will be making a two adjustments to the Winter Weather Advisory.
The first is to add in Ripley County, where northwest parts of the
county could see some decent ice accumulation. The second is to
extend the entire Advisory til Midnight (06Z Tuesday).

We currently have IFR visibilities in drizzle with temperatures at
31 or 32 degrees over most of the Advisory. This should continue
through daybreak, with very minor glazing of elevated objects and
surfaces. A few travel issues could develop for the morning
commute, especially on bridges and overpasses.

The 00Z models have trended much wetter with the upper system
today into this evening. NAM and GFS soundings reveal that
tropospheric deep forcing will overspread the entire area from 12Z
to 18Z, and then remain in place through the afternoon. However, by
evening, we quickly lose ice nucleation. For most of the region,
the warm layer will be sufficient to melt the snow before it
reaches the ground through the day. Temperatures over all but the
extreme northwest should be remain above freezing.

Right on the northwestern edge of the forecast area and Advisory
area, surface temperatures may hover right near freezing leading
to the potential for continued icing, mainly of elevated surfaces.
From Perryville MO to Mt Vernon IL, the warm layer may not be
sufficient to melt the snow entirely. Could see a mix of snow and
rain or freezing rain in these areas through the day. Once again
any ice and snow accumulations should mainly be on elevated
objects and surfaces.

As the sun sets late this afternoon, the sub-freezing air should
begin to push back to the southeast across the region. The models
hang onto around a tenth of an inch of QPF over the northern half
of the area this evening with just a few hundredths left over
most of the southeast Missouri portion of the Advisory. Without
ice nucleation we could see some more icing, and greater potential
for travel difficulties, as temperatures fall well below freezing.

After midnight, the sub-freezing air will push east of the
Advisory area, but not sure if there will be any measurable
precipitation left then. So, we will not expand the Advisory
eastward and into the overnight period at this time. However, it
is possible that an eastward expansion could happen if and when
confidence in any tangible ice and snow accumulations increases
sufficiently. With temperatures expected to fall into the mid and
upper 20s by daybreak Tuesday, some travel issues may linger into
the Tuesday morning commute.

The primary convective zone has stayed south of the area so far,
but the 00Z models suggest that it may try to sneak up near the
Tennessee border this afternoon and early this evening. QPF in our
southeast corner has been way overdone, but indications are that
an inch of additional rainfall will be possible today through
tonight. We will maintain a small mention of thunder in this area,
but flooding issues are not likely to develop.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

After an active start to the week, a quiet weather pattern is
forecast from mid week through next weekend. Forecast confidence
remains higher than average through Thursday, and it`s on the
increase for late week as well, though some uncertainty lingers.

The period starts off with continued colder than normal temperatures
as a dry cold frontal passage brings a reinforcing shot of cold air
early Wednesday. Thereafter, a warming trend is expected as low
level southerly flow develops behind the departing surface high on
Thursday. Similar to Tuesday, highs on Wednesday are forecast to
range from the middle 30s to lower 40s. Highs should warm into the
40s on Thursday, approach 50 on Friday, then surpass the 50 degree
mark across much of the area over the weekend.

The primary element of uncertainty continues to be whether or not
any precipitation accompanies the passage of an upper level trough
Friday into Friday night. For once, the 00Z operational GFS, ECWMF,
and CMC are all dry with the trough`s passage. That said, about half
of the GEFS ensemble members still suggest some potential for wet
weather. However, it`s looking more like the lack of significant
return moisture and weak forcing should inhibit the development of
precipitation. We do expect an increase in clouds Thursday night
into Friday night, and those may linger into Saturday depending on
how quickly the trough departs. And with winds forecast to remain
southwesterly through the weekend, relatively mild weather should
continue through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 551 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

LIFR conditions in drizzle/freezing drizzle will continue through
the morning. Although, as more substantial rain overspreads the
region some improvement to IFR levels will be possible. By
evening, the heavier rains should end, leaving drizzle/freezing
drizzle with LIFR conditions possible again. Things should finally
dry out from mid-evening into the overnight hours. KMVN may have
freezing rain/drizzle throughout the day, with some warming to
just above freezing possible this afternoon. A period of light
snow will also be possible there. Elsewhere, it should just be
rain/drizzle. North winds will increase this evening and
overnight. Gusts 20-25kts will be common, with the strongest
winds expected at KCGI.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
     ILZ075>078-080>082-084-085-088.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MOZ076-
     086-087-100-107-108.

IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...DRS


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