Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 111946

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
246 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will keep the weather
cooler than normal and relatively quiet through the short term
forecast period. Isentropic upglide along the along the 295K
surface will be favorable to support isolated shower development
tonight for locations near or adjacent to the AR/TN borders in SE
MO and W KY. Any precipitation that does occur will be very light,
or even sprinkles, as time-height cross sections depict plenty of
low level dry air. After 6z Wednesday, cloud cover will begin to
wane north of I-64. This will allow temperatures here to drop into
the upper 30s. Given the forecast of steady NE winds at 5-10 kts,
thought the potential for frost was too low to justify a Frost
Advisory. Elsewhere, morning lows will drop into the lower to
middle 40s.

The sun will make a return tomorrow and Thursday, but continued
cool/dry northeast surface flow will keep temperatures about 10
degrees below normal values. High temperatures Wednesday will be
in the middle 60s...increasing slightly to the upper 60s Thursday.
Overnight low temperatures both nights will dip in to the lower to
middle 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

We transition to an H5 northwest flow pattern Friday through
Sunday. Minor ripples of vorticity embedded within this flow might
generate isolated showers in our northwest counties as early as
Saturday afternoon...with SLGT to CHC PoPs slowly spreading south
and east through Sunday. Confidence is low regarding the
specifics of this system, so further refinement of the weekend
forecast is likely. A stronger H5 trough will eject from the
central Rockies early next week, bringing higher PoPs, along with
low thunder probabilities on Monday and Tuesday. Again, at this
range the details regarding how things evolve remain murky, but it
appears likely that next week will see the arrival of a more
unsettled pattern for the region.

Temperatures will warm to near normal values by the weekend and
early next week. Daily high temperatures will reach the upper 70s
to near 80 degrees. Overnight low temperatures will fall into the
middle 50s to lower 60s.


Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

The TAFs remain VFR. FEW-SCT diurnal CU decks will be around all
terminals until early this evening. BKN-OVC mid-level cloud around
8-12kft will also continue to spread east across the region. Can`t
rule out a few stray showers tonight around KCGI and KPAH, but
otherwise the forecast will be dry. Winds will remain NE at 10-15
kts with gusts up to 16-22 kts through the afternoon, decreasing
to about 10 kts overnight. Gustiness will return after 15z
Wednesday, around 18-22 kts.




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