513
FXUS63 KPAH 240443
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1143 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms possible through early this
  evening. A few storms may be severe with large hail and
  damaging wind the main threats.

- Mainly dry and mild weather expected through most of the work
  week. Temperatures will be about five to ten degrees above
  normal values.

- The next chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms will
  arrive late this week into next weekend along with even warmer
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

A trough/frontal boundary sagging through the area this afternoon
may touch off some scattered showers and storms, mainly over
southern portions of western KY and southeast MO. That is where
temperatures have warmed into the 60s with dewpoints sneaking up
into the mid to upper 50s. Farther north temperatures have
struggled to warm out of the upper 40s or low 50s today. SB CAPE is
analyzed to push up close to 1000-1500 J/kg into western KY over
the next few hours. Mid level lapse rates are still favorable for
stronger updrafts (around 7C/km) over western KY and SEMO with shear
values around 40-50kts. This would allow for a few strong to severe
storms along the boundary this afternoon. CAMs develop a broken line
over SEMO before quickly shifting the line through west Kentucky by
6 pm. This is in line with the SPCs slight risk expansion this
afternoon. The main window for severe weather will be between 3
pm and roughly 6 pm before quickly moving out of the CWA.

Northwest flow will be in place across much of the central CONUS
through much of this week before gradually flattening by Thursday.
Upper-level disturbances will pass through the area on the northwest
flow allowing for increased cloud cover at times along with a few
chances of showers and storms. The first chance will be Tuesday with
potentially a stronger system late in the week. The system seems to
have slowed a bit, moving most of the precipitation and impactful
weather to Friday into Saturday. WAA showers will develop Friday as
moisture flow increases into the area with a better chance for
showers and storms on Saturday as an upper level low deepens and a
cold front pushes through the area. That system will be one to keep
an eye on if temperatures warm enough ahead of it and enough
moisture is dragged northward. That could potentially be the next
risk of severe weather even though it is too early to say for sure
at this time. Stay tuned for updates on that!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

A cold front has cleared the area leaving northwesterly winds
filtering drier air into the region. Where it rained a little
bit of ground fog is possible but it should be very limited. VFR
conditions with relatively light winds are forecast for
tomorrow.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...JGG