Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 051159

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
559 AM CST Fri Mar 5 2021

Issued at 559 AM CST Fri Mar 5 2021

Updated aviation section for 12z TAF package.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 134 AM CST Fri Mar 5 2021

Models show a surface low moving through east Texas today as an
upper level trof moves southeast over Arkansas.  Surface high
pressure building south over our region will keep any precipitation
associated with this system southwest of the PAH forecast area,
but we will see an increase in clouds from southwest to northeast.
Much of southeast Missouri and west Kentucky will be mostly
cloudy by midday. Clouds will decrease from north to south this
evening, with our region mostly clear by late tonight. Cool
northeast flow will keep temperatures a little below normal, with
highs today around 50 degrees and lows tonight around 30 degrees.

Surface high pressure centered north of our region will gradually
slide southeast over the weekend as upper level ridging builds to
our west. This will give us clear to mostly clear skies through
Sunday night.  Surface winds will shift to the south Saturday
night, and will continue from the south through Sunday night.
After seasonable temperatures in the 50 to 55 degree range
Saturday and in the lower 30s Saturday night, a significant warm
up will begin on Sunday. Highs Sunday will be in the middle 50s to
around 60 degrees, with lows Sunday night in the upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 134 AM CST Fri Mar 5 2021

The 00Z models continue their metamorphosis to a spring like pattern
for next week, resulting in high temperatures 10 to 15F above
average, and by mid week, low temperatures even pushing 15 to 20F
above average as rain chances set in.

Looking at the member and cluster data, the variance exists mainly
in the depth/scope of the Southwest U.S. troffing, which
subsequently affects the Gulf Coast ridging. Plume data and
supporting profiles all increase our rain chances mainly after 00Z
Thursday, although we`ll not argue against some sneaking into our
north before then. We accept where the NBM stands basically in the
middle of the varied solutions, though confidence is not strong on
cold fropa because of the aforementioned parameters. We think it is
apt to enter the picture more prominently just beyond this forecast,
as the NBM suggests thunder chances incoming Thursday night with its
approach. We notice with time the developing southwesterly flow
aloft becoming more active and creating an atmospheric river impact
with repeat rain potential, and the tabular data already yields 90th
percentile plus for PW`s/specific humidity/vertical (wv) transport
for Wed-Thu, so that`ll be something to watch.

Another thing to watch...the NBM cranks up the wind fields ahead of
the system, namely, Wednesday-Thursday but esp so Wednesday, when
gusts could push into the 30s mph range.


Issued at 559 AM CST Fri Mar 5 2021

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with just high and
some mid clouds. Winds will be from the northeast at 5 to 10 mph,
becoming light after 00z.




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