Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 062313
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
613 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020

Aviation update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020

Pretty quiet afternoon underway as a warm front slowly drifts north
across the region. Weak upper ridging will remain in place over the
mid-Mississippi Valley over the next 24 hours with subtle height
rises. Without a well-defined trigger through the evening hours, a
cap will help keep the weather dry. Just an isolated shower or two
looks possible, mainly in southwestern KY. Tonight looks quiet as
well with convection remaining off to the northeast across portions
of Indiana and Ohio. Partly cloudy conditions are expected with lows
in the upper 50s to lower 60s in most places. Fog is less likely
tonight in the warm sector with steadier southerly flow, but patchy
valley fog may still occur closer to dawn.

The lower levels continue to moisten on Tuesday as a weak cold front
drops southeast through the Midwest. Stratocu should result in a
mostly cloudy start to Tuesday, with more breaks of sun likely in
the afternoon. Still thinking the bulk of the day looks dry with a
cap holding strong. It will certainly feel warm and humid with highs
in the upper 70s and lower 80s likely. The chance for scattered
showers and storms increases Tuesday evening into Tuesday night,
with the highest coverage expected over southwestern Indiana and
western Kentucky. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out
given a moderately unstable atmosphere and around 30-35 kts of deep
layer shear. Mid-level lapse rates around 7.5 C/km in particular
would support stronger updrafts with mainly a damaging wind/hail
threat. But the window for strong storms appears fairly small with
instability diminishing quickly after midnight.

The weather briefly dries out behind the initial weak boundary/wind
shift. With no meaningful airmass change, highs should again push to
around 80 Wed afternoon. Wednesday night, a much deeper upper trough
drops southeast across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A stronger
sfc cold front is forced southeast through the area Wednesday
evening into Wednesday night. Lingering rich BL moisture with
dewpoints in the upper 50s/around 60 should support at least modest
destabilization once again. Mid-level lapse rates are still fairly
steep, and forcing is stronger at the sfc and aloft thanks to the
cold front and a 50-60 kt jet at 500 mb. A squall line extending
into the overnight hours may pose a damaging wind threat.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020

...Much cooler temperatures on the way...

A deep upper trough will swing through the Great Lakes Thursday and
New England Friday with a trailing shortwave trough passing over the
mid-Mississippi/lower Ohio Valley early Friday. At the surface high
pressure over the High Plains Thursday morning will slide SSE into
the lower MS/TN Valleys Friday. This will result in dry and chilly
air coming into the region to end the work week. A tight gradient
between the incoming high and low pressure over Ontario will lead to
some breezy conditions Thursday, especially east of the Mississippi
where gusts of 20-25 mph aren`t out of the question.

Friday morning the surface high will still be to our west so a
light northwest breeze is expected, however with decreasing winds
and less in the way of clouds north of a Poplar Bluff-Paducah-
Evansville line, temperatures will bottom out in the middle 30s and
some patchy light frost may form in sheltered areas and on rooftops
from south of Saint Louis through southern Illinois to southwest
Indiana.

The GFS has been dry for several runs now, and there is excellent
agreement among its ensemble members with a dry forecast, for Friday
night into Saturday. However, the ECMWF and CMC are advertising
shower chances as a cold front advances from the northwest. It is
worth noting, though, that the ECMWF has had a strong drying bias
over its past few runs. It all depends on how quickly the Friday
high moves east and allows the cold front to advance. Given brisk
flow aloft, will still leave in PoPs for the possibility of the
faster solution panning out...but will keep them low given the
uncertainty.

Sunday-Monday a southern system will eject out of the desert
Southwest and bring a surface low up from the Gulf of Mexico across
the southeast United States to the mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile a
northern stream upper trof will swing in from the northwest and the
combination of these features will result in more shower chances in
the forecast.

Rainfall through the next seven days should be light (heavier
amounts to our south from Texas to the Carolinas), and shouldn`t have
a meaningful effect on the ongoing mainstem river flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020

VFR conditions anticipated through Tuesday. Occasional high clouds
tonight. Lower VFR clouds 4-6k/ft expected Tuesday. Light SSW
winds tonight will increase Tuesday to 10 to 20 kts with a few
higher gusts by 18z, continuing into the afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$


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