Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 292325

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
625 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020

Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020

Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020

The storm system located just south of our region this afternoon
will continue eastward through tonight, and take the rain and
eventually the clouds with it. The back edge of the deformation
zone rains should exit the Pennyrile by around 03Z tonight. The
biggest issue for tonight`s forecast is how fast the clouds will
clear out. The NAM indicates that the low clouds will linger
through the night over much of the region, while the GFS
aggressively clears us out this evening. Leaned hard toward the
slower NAM with the sky grids, but won`t be surprised if it ends
up clearing sooner.

Surface high pressure is expected to settle over the region Friday
morning, so gusty north winds will continue through the evening
before diminishing late. If we clear out and the winds can go
light or calm some locations from the Ozark Foothills through the
KMVN area may briefly reach freezing by daybreak Friday.
Otherwise, the consensus takes lows into the middle to upper 30s
throughout the region.

Surface high pressure will remain overhead Friday through Friday
night as the flow aloft relaxes and becomes zonal. South winds
will return Saturday as another cold front approaches the area.
The dry cold frontal passage will begin late Saturday night.

It will be sunny and cool Friday with highs 10 to 15 degrees below
normal. Stuck close to the consensus Friday night which will
result in middle 30s for most of the region. A few locations could
briefly drop to freezing. South winds Saturday will lead to a nice
warm up to the lower 60s, which is still a bit below normal.
Saturday night lows will be in the low to mid 40s with persistent
breezes on each side of the cold front.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020

Tranquil period expected with no precipitation through the long
term. Our main concern will be with freezing temperatures Sunday

On Sunday, a 500mb upper low will be moving into the northern Great
Lakes region. This feature will carve out a deep trough across the
eastern U.S. to start the new work week. A cold front will move
through the region early Sunday morning, ushering in a much cooler
airmass for Sunday and Monday. Breezy conditions are expected during
the day on Sunday with northwest winds gusting up to 25 to 30 mph

Surface high pressure will move overhead Sunday night which will
provide an ideal setup for temperatures to bottom out. Freezing
temperatures are expected across the entire area, and a hard freeze
(temps below 28) is possible across a good chunk of the region.

We will lose the influence of the eastern U.S. trough by mid week,
as upper level ridging over the western U.S. moves eastward and
positions itself overhead by Wednesday. The result will be
temperatures moderating into the 60s for highs.

There is the slightest hint at a weak shortwave moving toward the
region right beyond this period, primarily Thursday night into
Friday. This could result in a small rain chance returning to
portions of the area. However, the moisture return signal isn`t
great, so if we end up with anything it doesn`t look like much.


Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020

The last band of light rain showers has reached the Ohio River
and will move through the rest of the Quad State over the course
of the evening hours. Fog and some IFR ceilings are present ahead
of the rain band, while behind it cigs are in MVFR and vsby
issues are not a concern. Northwesterly winds this evening will
lessen overnight, becoming light and variable tomorrow. Skies will
clear up by morning leaving VFR conditions during the day




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