Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 212106
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
406 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

Strong convection continues to sink se across wrn KY this
afternoon ahead of a cold front approaching our nw counties. May
need to contend with another round of storms moving northeast
along the front out of north central AR, but this is looking to
be mainly a locally heavy rain producer, as much of
air/instability has been worked over north of the AR/TN borders
due to previous convection.

After tonight, most of the rest of the short term looks to be
generally rain-free as surface high pressure now over the Plains
moves east into the Midwest and Great Lakes region. This will
bring a break in the unseasonably warm temperatures that we have
been experiencing as of late. High temps Sunday under residual
clouds and northerly breezes will likely be held in the mid 60s to
near 70 at most locations. Highs Monday are expected to make it
into the lower half of the 70s with some return of sunshine, still
5 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

The main concern during the period will be the potential for heavy
rainfall and perhaps a few strong to severe storms as the rest of
the week will be quite active.

A warm front will move through the FA on Tuesday causing winds to
shift southeasterly. 700-mb moisture and Theta-E will advect
northward during the day causing PWAT values to rise in excess of
1.50." It is worth noting that the NAEFS ESAT mean shows these
values falling in the 90th percentile. This will set the stage for
periods of heavy rainfall. The first of two windows looks to be
Tuesday night as a 500-mb shortwave will cause an increase in PVA. A
sfc low develops along a frontal boundary over AR/MO and moves NE
causing showers and storms to increase in coverage, especially
across SEMO and the Purchase Region of western Kentucky. While the
greatest concern will be for torrential downpours that can cause
some flooding, a few strong to severe storms are not ruled out if
enough CAPE is available. High temps will range from the upper 70s
to lower 80s.

As a 500-mb longwave trough associated with the aformentioned
boundary slowly move closer to the FA on Wednesday, sfc winds will
turn southwesterly parallel to the sfc front causing greater concern
for flooding. As a result, WPC now includes southeast MO and western
KY in a slight risk for excessive rainfall where FFG is around 2"
for 1-hour rainfall. While deterministic models still differ a bit
with timing, showers and storms will remain likely during the day.
At this moment, it appears the second window for heavy rainfall will
be Wednesday afternoon into the night when another sfc low develops
along the front below the right entrance region of a 250-mb jet
streak. This is when the potential for training storms will be the
greatest that can cause flooding, especially in urbanized locations.
If the front were to slow down, there would be greater concern for
strong storms as the warm sector with the greatest CAPE looks to be
SE of the CWA at this time. Total rainfall from Tuesday night
through Wednesday night looks to average between 2-3." High temps
will be slightly cooler in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees.

During the Thursday-Friday time frame, pcpn will turn more scattered
as the upper level trough moves through. While Friday will be the
drier day of the two, would not be surprised to see some lingering
low level moisture with the upper level trough still nearby,
especially across NE areas. This will not last long as high pressure
builds across the area in time for the weekend. High temps will be
cooler on Thursday/Friday in the low to mid 70s while Saturday temps
look to return to the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

A cold front on our northwest doorstep will slowly move across the
region through tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
become more numerous this afternoon and evening, before tapering
off from northwest to southeast later tonight. Timing of best
chances for TSRA at any one terminal is challenging, but any storm
will likely reduce vsbys into at least IFR range for brief
periods. Cigs will primarily be VFR through the afternoon,
although a period of MVFR is possible at KMVN. Cloud bases will
lower this evening and overnight behind the cold front, dropping
to low MVFR and perhaps brief bouts of IFR. Winds will be SSW 8-13
kts for most of today before switching to the NW around 7-10 kts
tonight behind the fropa.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ILZ087-090-
     091-094.

MO...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MOZ112-114.

IN...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...SP


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