


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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513 FXUS63 KPAH 240443 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1143 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms possible through early this evening. A few storms may be severe with large hail and damaging wind the main threats. - Mainly dry and mild weather expected through most of the work week. Temperatures will be about five to ten degrees above normal values. - The next chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms will arrive late this week into next weekend along with even warmer temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 A trough/frontal boundary sagging through the area this afternoon may touch off some scattered showers and storms, mainly over southern portions of western KY and southeast MO. That is where temperatures have warmed into the 60s with dewpoints sneaking up into the mid to upper 50s. Farther north temperatures have struggled to warm out of the upper 40s or low 50s today. SB CAPE is analyzed to push up close to 1000-1500 J/kg into western KY over the next few hours. Mid level lapse rates are still favorable for stronger updrafts (around 7C/km) over western KY and SEMO with shear values around 40-50kts. This would allow for a few strong to severe storms along the boundary this afternoon. CAMs develop a broken line over SEMO before quickly shifting the line through west Kentucky by 6 pm. This is in line with the SPCs slight risk expansion this afternoon. The main window for severe weather will be between 3 pm and roughly 6 pm before quickly moving out of the CWA. Northwest flow will be in place across much of the central CONUS through much of this week before gradually flattening by Thursday. Upper-level disturbances will pass through the area on the northwest flow allowing for increased cloud cover at times along with a few chances of showers and storms. The first chance will be Tuesday with potentially a stronger system late in the week. The system seems to have slowed a bit, moving most of the precipitation and impactful weather to Friday into Saturday. WAA showers will develop Friday as moisture flow increases into the area with a better chance for showers and storms on Saturday as an upper level low deepens and a cold front pushes through the area. That system will be one to keep an eye on if temperatures warm enough ahead of it and enough moisture is dragged northward. That could potentially be the next risk of severe weather even though it is too early to say for sure at this time. Stay tuned for updates on that! && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 A cold front has cleared the area leaving northwesterly winds filtering drier air into the region. Where it rained a little bit of ground fog is possible but it should be very limited. VFR conditions with relatively light winds are forecast for tomorrow. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KC AVIATION...JGG