676
FXUS65 KREV 080958
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
158 AM PST Sun Feb 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Mild and dry with light winds this morning, increasing breezes
  this afternoon into tonight.

* Cooler temperatures with Sierra snow producing travel impacts from
  Monday evening through Wednesday. Western Nevada valleys will see
  light rain occasionally.

* Increasing chances for an impactful Sierra winter storm over
  Valentine`s Day Weekend into Washington`s birthday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

One last day of this period of dry, warm pattern left in the tank
before winter reminds us what month it is and who is in charge.
This afternoon we will experience the first hints of the incoming
series of systems lining up to move into the region. Winds will
climb this afternoon, with ridge gusts reaching 60-70 mph while
gusts in valleys hit 20-30 mph. These will be westerly winds
through the day today, but will become northerly by Monday,
ushering in the advertised cooler airmass.

Precipitation will arrive late Sunday to northeastern California
when snow levels will be around 7500-8500 feet. This suggests that
elevations below 7500 feet will see rain, while locations above 8500
feet will start to see snow first. As the winds shift to northerly
for Monday morning, snow levels will drop to around 4500-5500 feet
across northeastern California, but will still be above 6000 feet in
the Tahoe Basin around daybreak. We will have to wait through Monday
and Tuesday to see snow levels fall to all valley floors for
Wednesday morning. Previous ensemble runs brought the bulk of the
moisture into the region on Tuesday, however the recent solutions
are taking longer to bring the majority of the moisture in for
early Wednesday. This brings morning commute concerns into the
region for the first time since the holiday season. Make sure to
leave early for extra travel time on Tuesday and Wednesday
mornings, and take time now to stock your vehicle with winter
driving items and keep winter clothing nearby. Snow amounts have
also nudged upward a bit overnight, with 5-10 inches of snow
possible at lake level in the Tahoe Basin by midday Wednesday.
Donner and Carson passes could see 15-20 inches of new snowfall in
the same timeline. As for the Reno area, there is a 5-10% chance
to see 0.1 inches (a trace) of snow Wednesday morning, which is
more than enough to create some slick surfaces. Foothill areas are
even more likely to see travel disruptions, with Virginia City
and similar elevations checking in with a 40% chance for up to 2
inches of snow.

Thursday and Friday we anticipate a lull in the action, although
some snow showers may linger in the Sierra as the shortwave exits
the trough. Friday night will signal the arrival of the next system,
for which our confidence increases with every forecast cycle. This
next system will pack a bit more moisture and drastically colder
air, which will translate to significant Sierra snow and travel
impacts. Previous forecast shifts were looking at a much more
progressive storm, however, the system seems to have slowed a bit.
That will concentrate the accumulating snow to the Sunday-Monday
timeframe, but we are still looking for a solid understanding of
where and when the heaviest snows will fall. HRICH

&&

.AVIATION...

* VFR conditions today, with increasing winds this afternoon
  around 21z. Any valley haze remaining will begin to dissipate as
  winds increase to 20-25 kts. LLWS and turbulence will increase
  on 40-50 kt ridge winds this afternoon. HRICH

&&

.AVALANCHE...

Expect snow and wind impacts for all avalanche center terrain from
the Monday night-Wednesday storm:

* SWE totals: 1.0"-1.5" in most areas, with the northern Sierra
  crest potentially receiving up to 3 inches.

* Snow-Liquid Ratios: Higher density snow of 7-10:1 at onset Monday
  evening, then becoming lower density 11-13:1 from Tuesday morning
  onward.

* Snowfall Totals/Peak Snowfall Rates: 10-18 inches, with peak rates
  up to 1"/hour mainly from early Tuesday morning through evening.

* Peak Ridge Top Gusts: 60-70 mph.

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM Monday to 4 PM PST Wednesday
     NVZ002.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM Monday to 4 PM PST Wednesday
     CAZ072-073.

&&

$$