Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 260838

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
138 AM PDT Sun May 26 2024


Temperatures will warm the rest of the Memorial Day weekend with
lighter winds both through Monday. There remains a 10-20% chance for
a few storms Monday afternoon, but otherwise plan on dry conditions.
Beyond Memorial Day, another low pressure system will keep it dry
with breezy late day winds returning.



* Evidence for the upper level ridge shows up in the balloon
  soundings with a stout stable layer around 650-675mb. This flat
  ridge will continue to produce a bit of a warm-up along with
  lights winds and dry conditions through early Monday. This ridge-
  induced mid-layer inversion won`t stick around for too long as a
  shortwave pushing through on Monday will allow for some
  destabilization. With the steepening upper level lapse rates due
  to the wave passage and the heating at the surface, there is a 10-
  20% chance for storms to develop along the Sierra from Lake Tahoe
  south on Monday. Once the afternoon westerly winds kick in, then a
  handful of the showers and storms may slide over western Nevada
  areas late afternoon into the evening. Outside of the Sierra on
  Memorial Day, conditions will be rather uneventful with
  temperatures a few degrees above normal and typical afternoon

* Rest of the work week: There aren`t any significant ECMWF EFI
  signals for winds, temperatures, or precipitation. The main
  concern will be how the southward extent of a Pacific Northwest
  low pressure system from Tuesday through the rest of the week.
  This will impact the strength of the winds on Tuesday (for now
  gusts 30-40 mph possible) and also how much of a cooldown we
  experience. Blended guidance for forecast temperatures has leveled
  out a touch, but there is still a decent amount of spread in how
  much we may cool off on Thursday/Friday due to the low pressure
  system`s approach. Even the lowest forecast daytime high
  temperatures are still within the realm of average for the Sierra
  and western Nevada.




* For Sunday and Monday: Flat ridge of high pressure brings lighter
  daytime winds and much warmer temperatures. Winds will be lightest
  Sunday afternoon with gusts 15-20 kts after 22z with a slight
  uptick Monday to 20-25 kts.

* VFR conditions prevailing through Monday. The exception will be
  a 10-20% chance of thunder along the eastern Sierra mostly
  south of Hwy 50.

* Tuesday onward: Depending on the depth and track of a Pacific
  Northwest trough, the winds in the afternoon on Tuesday may be the
  strongest with peak gusts 25 to 35 kts for northeastern CA and
  western Nevada. Temperatures will meander near average with
  continued breezes will develop each afternoon through the end of
  the week.



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