628
FXUS65 KREV 120856
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
156 AM PDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Above normal temperatures are expected today with chances of Sierra
showers and storms in the afternoon. Steady warming continues
through the week with afternoon showers and storms south of the
Tahoe Basin possible on Monday and Tuesday. Cooler weather and
increased shower chances are favored for next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

An encore of overall pleasant weather is in store for Mother`s Day,
although there are a couple of items to keep in mind if you venture
outdoors today!

1) Warm daytime temperatures beneath mostly sunny skies:

Daytime highs are expected to climb into the upper 60s to 70s for
Sierra communities and upper 70s to mid 80s for much of western
Nevada. While passing clouds will allow for a brief cooldown in some
areas this afternoon, most areas will experience abundant sunshine
so be sure to stay hydrated and wear sunscreen if spending extensive
time outdoors. One final note: While the weather will be warm, area
waterways are not so avoid plunging into creeks and streams!

2) Potential for afternoon Sierra showers and isolated storms:

Effective differential heating and a slight increase in moisture
will promote a 15-25% chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms
this afternoon in the Sierra. Best potential favors the higher
terrain of Alpine and Mono County with a secondary maxima across
Lassen and far northern Washoe counties. Timing of showers and
storms may begin as early as 11 AM PDT and lasting as late 7 PM PDT,
though the most likely timeframe will be between 2-5 PM PDT per
latest HREF and CAM guidance. Any developing thunderstorm will be
capable of brief downpours, gusty winds, and occasional lightning.

The upcoming week will feature above normal temperatures with
chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday
afternoon. Monday will be the most favorable day, especially in the
Sierra from the Tahoe Basin southward and perhaps into far western
Nevada south of US-50 where chances reach 30-40%. Potential declines
a skosh to 20-30% on Tuesday and favors a similar area as Monday.

The remainder of the week will be dry and is trending towards a
warmer scenario as latest ensemble guidance converge on the robust
eastern Pacific high solution. Chances of KRNO reaching 90F now
stand around 40-50% for Thursday and Friday per blended guidance.
Cooler weather with increasing chances of showers is favored for
next weekend and beyond.

-Salas

&&

.AVIATION...

The main weather concern will be the potential for showers and
isolated thunderstorms in the vicinity of KTRK/KTVL/KMMH this
afternoon. Odds of a thunderstorm within 10 miles of these terminals
are around 10-20% with potential impacts of gusty erratic winds,
reduced CIGS/VIS, and occasional lightning. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail.

-Salas

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$