Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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956 FXUS61 KAKQ 090138 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 938 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains centered across the southeast through Sunday. Another weak cold front pushes through the region late Sunday into Monday, with the front lingering along the southeast coast through Tuesday. High pressure settles across the area on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 935 PM EDT Saturday... Late this evening, sfc high pressure was centered well off the SE coast, while a cold front was dropping into the OH Valley. Also, a weak sfc trough was over the CWA. Dry weather is expected overnight, with SCT-BKN CI and AC clouds passing through the area. Lows will range through the 60s to near 70, as dewpoints increase into the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Another weak front pushes through the area Sunday evening, with widely scattered showers and storms. - Slightly cooler temps expected Monday and Tuesday with periods of isolated showers Monday night, potentially increasing over the eastern half of the area on Tuesday. Stacked low pressure over eastern Canada will allow a weak front to approach/cross the region Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours. Relatively meager moisture will result in isolated to scattered shower/storm coverage during the afternoon with somewhat greater moisture across the SE third of the area allowing for more numerous convection into the evening. High temps Sunday rise into the mid to upper 80s over much of the area with a few low 90s expected for the SE where clouds and showers will hold off longer. Overnight low temps range from the upper 50s NW to the mid and upper 60s SE. The front should move offshore by sunrise Monday. Removed the mention of isolated showers from the forecast given dry air aloft and lack of lift in the post-frontal airmass. Highs Monday in the upper 70s to low 80s. Some forcing for ascent moves in Monday night as a trough aloft digs to our west. Will limit PoPs to just a slight chance overnight with the eastern half of the area favored. 12z guidance has come into somewhat better agreement regarding the development and evolution of surface low pressure across the region on Tuesday. The ECMWF remains the most bullish while the GFS and Canadian continue to show a mostly dry forecast for the region. Will maintain slight chance to chance PoPs across the eastern half of the area on Tuesday into the overnight. Regardless of the specifics, increased cloud cover will tend to limit daytime heating with highs in the 70s to low 80s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Warming trend expected through the end of the week with highs reaching the 90s by Thursday and Friday. - Mostly dry Wednesday through Saturday with only a slight chance for afternoon/evening showers and storms. Upper ridging over the central Gulf Coast expands NE into the Mid- Atlantic region mid to late week with Bermuda high pressure taking shape as well, resulting in mostly dry conditions and building heat. Highs Wednesday will rise back into the mid and upper 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. A few degrees warmer on Thursday with potentially some isolated showers and storms moving into the Piedmont from the west. Highs near 90 degrees with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. The heat peaks on Friday with widespread low to mid 90s away from the coast. Remaining mostly in the 90s on Saturday with a slightly higher probability of afternoon showers and storms. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 755 PM EDT Saturday... Mainly VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites from this evening into Sun evening. Expect SCT-BKN CI and higher AC clouds this evening into Sun morning with light SSW winds. SW winds will increase to 10-14 kt by mid morning Sun, with some gusts in the lower 20s possible through the aftn hours. Another cold front will bring a slight chc of showers/tstms later Sun into Sun evening. A slight chc of showers/tstms lingers into Mon, but overall VFR conditions should prevail Sun evening through Mon. && .MARINE... As of 250 PM EDT Saturday... Key messages: - Southwest winds increase to 15-17 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots tonight. - South winds increase to 15-20 knots late Friday into Friday night with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible. - Low rip current risk at all area beaches Sunday and Monday. High pressure remains centered across the Southeast into tonight. A weak surface trough approaches the local waters overnight. As such, winds shift from variable ~5-7 kt this afternoon to S/SE 10-15 kt this evening, becoming SW 15-17 kt with gusts 20-25 kt (highest across the coastal waters). Marginal SCA conditions are possible overnight, however, conditions appear marginal (wind probs for 18 kt sustained winds were 50-60% for the bay but only for 3 hours). Given marginal wind probs and SW winds over warm waters leading to potentially less effective mixing, will hold off on SCAs at this time. SW winds diminish to 10-15 kt by Sun morning, becoming W with a few gusts to 20 kt across the rivers Sun afternoon, then becoming N/NNW 10-15 kt Sun night behind a cold front. High pressure builds back in from the W with a weak coastal low moving along the coast late Mon through Tue night. However, winds appear to remain below SCA criteria. Another weak low develops over the Southeast/Gulf of Mexico from mid-late week with S winds increasing to 15-20 kt Fri into Fri night. SCAs are possible for this surge. Waves and seas were ~1 ft and ~2 ft respectively this afternoon. Waves and seas build to 2-3 ft and 3-4 ft respectively overnight, subsiding to 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft by Sun afternoon. Additionally, there is a low rip current risk Sun and Mon. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...RHR/TMG SHORT TERM...RHR LONG TERM...RHR AVIATION...TMG MARINE...ESS/RMM