128
FXUS61 KAKQ 310746
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
346 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in today through Saturday with cool and dry
conditions expected. Unsettled and warmer weather returns next week
with multiple shortwaves moving through, allowing for the potential
for scattered showers and storms through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Pleasantly cool and dry today as high pressure builds in.

A shortwave trough continues to push through early this morning with
scattered showers and isolated storms moving SE out of the area. As
convection moves SE, clouds clear with mostly sunny skies expected
by sunrise. Temps as of 300 AM ranged from the upper 40s to lower
50s NW (under clear skies) to the upper 50s to lower 60s SE (where
cloud cover is thickest). As clouds thin, winds become light/calm.
As such, expect temps to become chilly as they drop into the mid-
upper 40s W to the mid 50s E (upper 50s to around 60F along the
coast) by sunrise.

Today is about as good weather as one can hope for in late May with
low humidity, sunny skies, and highs in the mid 70s as high pressure
builds in. With high pressure overhead tonight and low dewpoints,
expect efficient radiational cooling with lows in the mid-upper 40s
inland (lower 50s for urban areas) and 50s closer to the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Near normal temperatures this weekend.

- There is a chance for showers and storms Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night.

High pressure moves offshore Sat with winds becoming S/SSW. This
will allow for temps to rise back into the lower 80s on Sat and Sun
with mid 80s along the coast Sun. Dry and pleasant weather continues
Sat with dewpoints in the mid 40s to lower 50s. A shortwave and
surface low approach the area Sun into Sun night with a chance for
some scattered showers and storms, especially Sunday night. However,
models are in disagreement with the Euro keeping most of the
precip N whereas the GFS/NAM keep most of the precip over the
local area. CONSALL also supports the idea of chance PoPs across
the area. As such, have gone with a blend of CONSALL and NBM
(which seems too low) in order to get chance PoPs across most of
the area Sun night (30-40% PoPs). That being said, most of the
day Sun should be dry apart from isolated showers/storms in the
Piedmont. Lows in the mid- upper 50s W to the lower 60s E Sat
night and lower 60s W to the mid- upper 60s E Sun night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled weather persists through the week with multiple chances
for showers and storms.

- A warmup is expected with above normal temperatures.

Aloft, a ridge briefly builds across the East Coast through midweek
before a trough takes it`s place by late week. As this pattern
change occurs, models show the potential for multiple shortwaves
moving through the area. Therefore, daily chances for showers/storms
exists. That being said, generally low PoPs are expected Mon/Tue
(<30%) with higher chances Wed-Fri (30-50%). Temps will also rebound
with highs in the mid 80s Mon, mid-upper 80s Tue, low-mid 80s Wed,
upper 80s Thu, and mid-upper 80s Fri. Lows in the 60s continue
through the week with most nights in the mid-upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 135 AM EDT Friday...

A shortwave trough continues to push through tonight with
scattered showers and isolated storms across SE VA/NE NC. These
showers and storms will continue to push SE over the next
several hours with clearing conditions expected by sunrise. CIGs
remain mainly VFR with the CU (generally 4000-6000 ft). However,
VIS may briefly drop to IFR/MVFR at ECG over the next hour or so
as a storm moves through. A few gusts to 20 kt will also be
possible with this convection. Outside of convection, winds were
generally N 3-7 kt. Clouds clear by sunrise with sunny skies
expected through the day Fri apart from a few high-based CU near
the coast. N winds increase to 5-10 kt Fri morning, increasing
again to ~10 kt with gusts 15-20 kt from late morning into the
afternoon. High pressure builds in Fri night with calm winds and
clear skies expected.

High pressure spreads across the region Friday night through
Saturday, before sliding offshore Sunday through Tuesday.
Primarily dry and VFR conditions are expected to prevail
Thursday night through Tuesday. The only exception is a slight
chc of showers/tstms Sunday as a weakening system tracks N of
the area.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

-Rip current risk for the southern beaches today has been upgraded
to moderate. It is expected to return to low for all local coastal
waters this weekend.

-A brief northerly surge of 15 to 20 knots is expected today as high
pressure builds in from the northwest.

High pressure will continue to build in from the northwest today,
creating a weak surge of northerly winds across the waters during
the daytime hours. As of this writing, hi-res guidance has sustained
winds remaining around 16-19kt, with wind probs stay at or below 20%
for sustained 18kt winds at all sites. Decided to not issue a SCA
due to it being such a borderline event. Will continue to
monitor for any changes. Otherwise, expect seas of 2-3ft north
with 3-4ft seas across the south today. Waves in the Bay will be
2-3ft, becoming 1- 2ft later this evening as the wind subsides.
Winds will become west/northwesterly briefly tonight into early
Saturday, then turn south/southeasterly during the afternoon.
Seas will remain around 2- 3ft for the weekend. Next chance of
rain looks to come later Sunday into Monday, with daily chances
potentially sticking around after that.

The rip current risk for the southern beaches has been upgraded to a
moderate risk due to a northerly surge of wind expected to bring
waves up to 3ft nearshore. The risk should remain low for the
weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...JKP