895
FXUS61 KAKQ 070717
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
317 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front pushes across the region this evening, with
scattered strong to severe storms possible. Behind the front,
cooler, drier conditions push into the region for Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 800 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Severe T-Storm Watch 394 continues until 9pm for locations
  along the coast and in SE VA. Strong wind gusts remain the
  primary threat from any storm through this evening.

- Clearing late tonight, with drier air moving into the region.

Showers and thunderstorms have gradually progressed E this
evening. For the most part, storms have remained sub-severe.
However, have noted a few storms capable of producing marginally
severe winds (55-60 mph). With the loss of heating, expect a
downward trend in convection over the next few hrs. The severe
tstm watch has been cancelled for most of the VA Piedmont, but
continues for counties/cities closer to coasts of the bay and
ocean. This is where 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE still resides per
SPC mesoanalysis. Effective shear values remain on the weak
side, on the order of ~20 kt. Locally damaging winds, heavy
rainfall, and lightning remain the primary threats from any
stronger storm.

The majority of the shower/storm activity should exit the area
after midnight tonight. However, a few CAMs (primarily the HRRR)
suggest storms may linger or redevelop over NE NC into early Fri
morning. Have therefore kept some higher PoPs here into this
time period. Clouds eventually scatter out and winds diminish
as the front passes through late tonight. Early morning lows in
the low 60s inland and in the upper 60s-around 70 closer to the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Drier weather returns for Friday and Saturday.

- Another weak front pushes through the area Sunday, but should
  remain mostly dry

Drier weather moves into the region Friday behind the departing
cold front, with dewpoints drop into the 50s. Aloft, an upper
level low moves into the Great Lakes on Fri, lingering into
early next week. Guidance continues to trend toward pushing the
weakening front though the region on Sunday night, but it still
appears the upper level low is too close to the local area for
enough instability for much in the way of widespread showers
and/or storms on Sunday. Have stuck with slight to low- end Chc
PoPs across far northern counties in the afternoon with slight
chc PoPs everywhere else except the SE. May see slightly higher
coverage by later in the evening.

Thicknesses change only slightly tomorrow, so expect highs again
in the low 80s in the NW and on the Eastern Shore, mid-upper 80s
elsewhere. A few degrees cooler (and drier) on Saturday with
highs mostly in the low to mid 80s. Warmer on Sunday with highs
mid to upper 80s to near 90 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Near to below normal temps expected in the early week period
  with warmer temps returning mid-week

- Mostly dry through the early week, but isolated showers
  possible

A bit cooler in the early week period as a fairly deep UL trough
lingers over the northeast. This feature will keep us near to
just below normal for highs, with maxima expected to remain in
the upper 70s in the far N/NW and low 80s elsewhere Mon/Tue.
Temps warm up into the mid- upper 80s again mid- week once the
trough is offshore and a ridge builds in behind it. Precip in
the early week period is a bit uncertain and likely to be
isolated at best with the trough in the area, but we should
remain mainly dry. Kept PoPs to slight to low-end Chc with
mainly diurnal timing.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 135 AM EDT Friday...

Precip has largely come to an end with only light showers near
ECG, which should push out of the area shortly. A cold front is
crossing through the forecast area, scattering out clouds behind
it. BKN skies at SE terminals to start the 06z TAF period, but
should go SCT by the morning. Winds are turning to the W behind
the front at 5-10kt. Expect mostly clear skies through Friday
with FEW- SCT afternoon Cu possible. Westerly wind will gust
15-20kt in the afternoon. VFR persists into Saturday.

Outlook: Dry and VFR Friday night into Saturday behind the cold
front. Another cold front will bring a slight chc of
showers/tstms later Sunday. A slight chc of showers/tstms
lingers in to Monday, but overall VFR conditions should prevail
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 AM EDT Friday...

Key messages:

- No headlines in effect for the waters, a few brief surges of
  wind are expected, the first late tonight/early Saturday, and
  another late Sunday night/early Monday.

- Low rip current risk at all area beaches expected today into
  the weekend.

A weak cold front is currently approaching the waters early this
morning, and will cross the area through sunrise. There is no
cold air with this initial boundary, so aside from modest
pressure rises and a slightly drier airmass, winds will remain
below SCA criteria, averaging around 10 kt today from the WNW in
the wake of the front. Waves in the bay are 1-2 ft with seas
offshore running 2-3 ft. By tonight, there is a somewhat more significant
surge of cooler/drier air, allowing winds to turn more to the
NNW and increase to around 15 kt with gusts to ~20kt for a few
hrs. Pressure rises are still rather minimal (4mb/6hr) between
00-06Z tonight so overall this looks too weak to raise SCA
headlines and will more likely just need a short-fused MWS to
highlight about a 2 hr period with gusts to 20 kt+ in the Bay.

Thereafter, expect mostly quiet marine conditions for the rest
of the weekend, the flow becomes SW once again on Sunday ahead
of the next cold front which should cross the waters Sunday
evening. SW winds on Sunday could gust to around 20 kt over the
rivers w/ better mixing, but overall this looks to remain below
SCA criteria. Another marginal surge of northerly winds is then
expected Sunday night/early Monday, again probably falling just
short of SCA criteria across the Bay (and well below criteria on
the ocean). Waves/seas will average 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft,
respectively, into early next week.

Low rip current risk is forecast for all area beaches Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

Will allow the current crest of high tide at Bishop`s Head to
occur (staying below Minor Flood threshold), then will cancel
the Coastal Flood Statement for bay- facing portions of the MD
Eastern Shore.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SW
SHORT TERM...AM/MAM
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ