374
FXUS61 KAKQ 091756
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
156 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Another weak cold front pushes through the region late today
into Monday, with the front lingering near the southeast coast
through Tuesday. High pressure settles across the area on
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 155 PM EDT Sunday...

Key message:

- A weak cold front will bring scattered showers/storms to the
  area this afternoon into this evening.

- Highs around 90 for much of the area with mid to upper 80s
  across the Eastern Shore and far northwestern portions of the
  area.

A weak cold front was located from N VA WSW into WV early this
afternoon. Aloft, an upper level low was situated to the NE of
the Great Lakes. The cold front drops S later this afternoon as
the trough aloft deepens into the eastern CONUS while the upper
level low slides E. As the front passes through, there will be
a chance for scattered showers (and isolated thunderstorms).
However, low CAPE (~500 MLCAPE) will make it difficult to get
substantial coverage of precip. That being said, the RAP
suggests enough 3CAPE with surface vorticity along the front for
at least scattered convection later this afternoon. Have PoPs
gradually increasing as the front pushes SE later this afternoon
into this evening with CAMs showing the potential for greatest
coverage in NE NC this evening. Given ~60 kt of 0-6km shear,
gusts to 25-40 mph are possible with any stronger convection.
Showers taper off tonight before another round of light showers
potentially moves into NE NC late tonight into Mon morning. QPF
looks to be light with mainly <0.10" of precip.

W winds remain gusty this afternoon with gusts 20-25 mph this
afternoon. Winds become light overnight. Temps as of 150 PM
ranged from the lower 80s NW to the upper 80s SE. Highs this
afternoon around 90 for much of the area with mid to upper 80s
across the Eastern Shore and far northwestern portions of the
area. Overnight lows in the mid-upper 50s NW to the upper 60s
SE are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Slightly cooler temps expected Monday and Tuesday with periods
  of isolated to widely scattered showers over the eastern half
  of the area on Tuesday.

A deepening trough over the eastern CONUS aloft will bring
relatively cooler temperatures and low humidity for the early week
period. Temperatures on Monday will struggle to reach 80 in far
northwestern locations. Most of the area will be in the low 80s. RHs
will drop into 35-40% range. Lows Mon night will be in the upper 50s
W of I-95 and low-mid 60s to the E. Lowest highs of the week look to
be Tues as the UL trough axis swings through the region. Highs will
be in the upper 70s for most, around 80 S of US-460. Regarding
chances for precip, models are still struggling to decide what to do
with the development of sfc low pressure offshore. The 00z
GFS/Canadian/NAM favor a weaker low that forms off the Carolina
coast and quickly moves out to sea, mostly leaving the local area
dry. The ECMWF, however, is hanging on to a slightly stronger low
closer to the FA and bringing precip to at least eastern portions of
the area Tuesday evening. Given general consensus of the former 3,
will lean more towards this solution. However, will maintain the
slight chance PoPs in the E on Tues.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Warming trend expected through the end of the week with highs
reaching the 90s by Thursday and Friday.

- Mostly dry Wednesday through Saturday with only a slight chance
for afternoon/evening showers and storms Saturday.

The UL trough will push offshore Wed and a ridge tries to fill
in behind it. Southerly sfc flow and increasing thicknesses
mean a warming trend through the end of the week. Highs on Wed
look to be in the mid- upper 80s, then getting into the low-mid
90s for Thurs/Fri. There is the potential for a cold front to
pass through on Saturday, but models disagree on the whether or
not that front actually makes it to the Mid-Atlantic. Kept the
blended guidance in there for PoPs, which yields slight chance
PoPs Saturday afternoon. Sat will probably be a few degrees
cooler than Friday, but still around 90 for most places.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Sunday...

Primarily VFR conditions prevail through the 18z TAF period. CU
continue to increase in coverage this afternoon (5000-7000 ft
CIGs) ahead of an approaching cold front. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into this
evening ahead of and along the cold front. Gusts to around 25-30
kt are possible with the front and/or convection. Given shallow
moisture, don`t expect much reduction of VIS. Nevertheless,
can`t rule out a brief drop to IFR/MVFR VIS with any stronger
showers/storms. Convection tapers off from NW to SE later this
afternoon into this evening into NE NC where it lingers into Mon
morning. Winds were generally W ~15 kt with gusts to 25 kt this
afternoon. Winds are expected to gradually diminish late this
afternoon into this evening, becoming NW 5-10 kt this evening
before becoming light and variable tonight.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions prevail through Monday afternoon.
Showers/storms are possible mainly across the Eastern Shore
(including SBY) Monday evening with additional showers/storms
possible Tuesday afternoon along the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...

Key messages:

- Southwest winds 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 knots today, shift
  to the NW this evening.

- Mainly sub-SCA conditions this week, increasing southerly flow
  late in the week ahead of the next front.

- Low rip current risk at all area beaches today and Monday.

Low pressure is located across NW PA early this morning, and
will track east today, pushing off the New England coast late in
the day. This will push a weakening cold front through the area
late this aftn through this evening. Winds are from the SW
around 10-15 kt with a few gusts to 20 kt this morning. Waves
are 1-2 ft, with 2-3 ft seas offshore. With the heat of the day,
expect the rivers to become a bit gusty from the W/SW in
advance of the cold front, while the east side of the Bay and
much of the ocean will have winds dropping off a bit by late
morning/early-mid aftn due to limited mixing. With the cold
front, winds shift to the NW and become more uniform in the
10-15 kt range with gusts to 20 kt. Locally higher winds will be
possible in any showers/storms later in the aftn through the
early evening hrs (and will be handled with SMWs as needed).
Overall, the surge later tonight looks too weak for any
headlines as pressure rises drop off from ~3 mb/6hr this
evening to 1-2 mb/6 hr overnight, along with minimal cold
advection. There may see a slightly better chance for marginal
SCA conditions late Mon night/Tuesday as the front and sfc low
pressure lingers along the SE coast as high pressure slowly
builds in from the NW. Latest wind probs are 20-30% for 18 kt
sustained winds over the Bay. At least expect to see elevated
NNE winds in the 10-15 kt range. Otherwise, high pressure builds
back in by midweek w/ sub- SCA conditions continuing. Another
weak low develops over the Southeast/Gulf of Mexico from mid-
late week with S winds increasing to 15-20 kt late Thursday
through Friday, potentially resulting in SCAs late in the week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...AM/RMM
SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...LKB