690
FXUS64 KAMA 200517
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1217 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the
northeast Panhandles through 10 PM this evening.

Afternoon showers and storms will be possible today. See the
Mesoscale Update above for details regarding today`s severe
potential. Tonight, the dryline will attempt to retreat to the
east, but another surface low is expected to track across the
Panhandles and hold it in place. Tomorrow, we`ll still have warm
southwest flow aloft over the Panhandles and with another lee
surface low setting up in southeast CO we can expect very dry
conditions with RH values in the 5 to 10 percent range. Winds
expected to be in the 15-25 mph range, which will support
elevated to maybe some brief critical Fire Weather conditions.
Mild overnight lows on Monday night with lows in the upper 50s to
mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Tuesday will be similar to Monday as we`ll still be under
Southwest flow, but there will be a weak frontal system from the
upper trough that`s expected to push through. Overall, the main
front is expected to come overnight Tuesday night and will cool
the Panhandles down into the 80s on Wednesday. Given that the
trough is pretty quick to eject to the northeast as another upper
trough swings down front he Pacific Northwest, we can expect
Thursday to be under a more zonal to southwest flow, with a
potential dryline setup again in the eastern Panhandles. Models
area back and forth regarding where storms would initiate on
Thursday, but the potential is still there for the eastern
Panhandles. While confidence is low, if storms develop they have
a decent chance to be severe, but again it`s still uncertain if
things will even materialize in our area this far out. Upper
trough axis is still well displaced to the north and quickly exits
to the east with zonal flow returning on Friday and Saturday
leaving the area with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Possible
shortwave that could trigger another round of storms in the
extended, but no confidence at this time for the forecast.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR conditions are currently anticipated through the next 24
hours. Low ceilings are favored at KGUY later tonight along with
possible visibility restrictions, but uncertainty about extent of
cloud coverage precludes forecasting MVFR or IFR ceilings.
Amendments may be needed if cloud cover comes in more extensive.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX               100  63  90  52 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  99  62  92  51 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              93  57  85  45 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                 103  65  94  54 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX             100  61  91  52 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  99  62  90  51 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               98  64  91  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 94  55  87  46 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  96  59  89  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX               101  60  91  51 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                97  64  93  53 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                  100  64  91  52 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                98  65  93  56 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              98  66  96  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...52