048
FXUS64 KAMA 081727
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1227 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 857 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Not too much to update with the forecast at this time. Have bumped
up high temperatures a degree or two across the south, in
particular for Palo Duro Canyon where the high temperature today
should easily reach Heat Advisory criteria. Mid level cloud cover
this morning is quickly eroding from southwest to northeast and
plenty of daytime heating should result in hot temperatures for
the Panhandles. Be sure to practice heat safety and stay hydrated
if planning to be outside this afternoon!

Muscha

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Saturday will be another hot day as the ridge continues to sit
across the southern plains. This will see the highs in the upper
90s to mid 100s across the panhandles. Palo Duro Canyon is likely
to be the hottest area with a Heat Advisory in effect for this
afternoon and evening. This doesn`t mean only that area poses a
heat risk as areas like the Canadian River Valley will also be
very toasty but just not quite that hot. So it is best to practice
heat safety and drink plenty of fluids and take appropriate
breaks to avoid heat illness today. Moisture will continue to
linger across the panhandles for Saturday which will lead to
another round of afternoon and evening rain showers and
thunderstorms. The environment is supportive of these being high
based with a deep dry layer below the cloud level. This is an
ideal setup for dry micro burst to occur with any rain shower and
thunderstorms. The most likely severe threat will be powerful
winds from the downbursts however there is a chance that large
hail may also occur with the strongest storms. A cold front is
then likely to pass across the panhandles late on Saturday
bringing much cooler air. The passage of the front may bring a
thunderstorm complex to the southern plains with the OK panhandle
having a low chance of being impacted directly during the late
evening hours. This could cause secondary storms to form from any
outflow that the MCS produces even if it stays to the north of the
panhandles. If the MCS doesn occur then it more likely that the
overnight hours will be on the calmer side.

Sunday will be much cooler following the passage of the cold front
with highs in the 70s to 80s being generally cooler in the north
compared to the southern panhandles. Moisture will be increasing
in the panhandles on Sunday which will allow for a further round
of rain showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. The ridge on
Sunday will weaken which should allow for a small trough to
transit the flow and pass across the panhandles during the later
afternoon and evening. This trough will increase the rain shower
and thunderstorm activity for the later afternoon and evening
across the panhandles. The higher moisture amounts will allow
these to be fairly wet storms which coupled with slow storm motion
will open the panhandles up for flooding. The additional lift
provided by the trough will also allow some storms to become
strong to severe with wind and hail being the main threats.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Active weather is expected to hold for the Panhandles as we move
into the work week thanks to a trough holding a stalled frontal
boundary over the area and good moisture flow present at the lower
level. As it stand, latest model runs continue to see this trough
keep a 500mb high over the Gulf coast, which in turn will work
with the trough to set up good southeasterly flow at the lower
levels. This flow, will allow good amounts of moisture to advect
into the Panhandles with many models calling for PWAT values
ranging from 1 to 1.5 inches for Monday. This high amount amount
of moisture will find an easy lifting mechanism in the present
stalled boundary which will allow for showers to be present
throughout the day and overnight. As for severe concerns, lasted
model runs are not that excited with MLCAPE values barley nearing
500mb and effective bulk shear peaking at 25kt at best. Rather
concerns may be more focused on the flooding potential with many
models seeing the potential for an inch or more in accumulation in
the form of continued status rain showers throughout the day. Of
course this will also be on top of any precipitation that fell on
Sunday, which could see the Panhandles well saturated by the time
Monday rolls around. Regardless, expect showers to slowly dwindle
off as we move into Tuesday with models expecting the upper-level
trough finally pushing off.

Once the trough does move off, model do expect a brief dry period
to follow as the stationary high that set up in the Southwestern
United States expands over the Panhandles. As this expansion
occurs, look for temperatures to quickly be on the rise with many
locations going from the upper 70s Monday back into the 90s by
Wednesday. Of course, this dry period wont last long as many
models expect a new trough to move through just to our north by
the end of the week. While there is still some uncertainty
present, this passage will allow for a break down of the upper-
level high pressure system and more opportunities for active
weather clear into the weekend. Otherwise, look for the hot
temperature to stay with many locations reaching the high 90s to
triple digits as early as Thursday.

Scoleri

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Main aviation concern during this TAF cycle will be thunderstorm
chances at all sites. Have included TEMPO groups for KAMA/KGUY as
they have the higher potential to see thunderstorms over the
terminals. Sporadic gusty winds are expected if thunderstorms move
over the terminals. Winds will become easterly overnight and low
clouds are forecast to move in across the area. Higher potential
for low clouds will be at KGUY followed by KDHT and then KAMA.
Have not included MVFR ceilings at KDHT or KAMA for now as
confidence is not high enough at this time.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                66  87  62  77 /  40  30  80  60
Beaver OK                  64  80  60  76 /  60  30  60  40
Boise City OK              59  78  57  72 /  50  40  70  60
Borger TX                  66  87  63  79 /  40  30  80  60
Boys Ranch TX              65  87  62  79 /  40  30  80  60
Canyon TX                  66  88  60  77 /  40  30  80  60
Clarendon TX               68  89  62  75 /  30  30  70  60
Dalhart TX                 61  81  58  75 /  40  30  80  60
Guymon OK                  61  80  59  74 /  60  30  70  50
Hereford TX                66  90  61  79 /  30  30  80  60
Lipscomb TX                65  82  61  77 /  50  30  60  50
Pampa TX                   65  84  61  76 /  40  30  70  60
Shamrock TX                69  89  62  77 /  20  30  70  60
Wellington TX              71  93  63  79 /  10  20  60  60

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...05