862
FXUS64 KAMA 040557
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1257 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The residual airmass behind an outflow boundary from morning
convection over the eastern Panhandles has since modified,
possibly enough to support thunderstorm potential this afternoon.
A broad sfc low situated over and south of the Panhandles, along
with the retrograding outflow boundary, has allowed southeast
winds to maintain upper 60s to low 70s dew pts, with MLCAPE values
around 3000+ J/kg and effective bulk shear of 30-40 kts. The
downside to this environment is the lack of better deep layer
moisture, which may cause initial attempts at storm development to
struggle despite this focused area of better fuel and forcing.
18z mesoanalysis shows ample MLCINH still in place from this
morning`s weak activity, but if any updrafts can overcome the
current capping and inhibition in place, one or two strong to
severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards may develop over the
eastern Panhandles around 4-7 PM, exiting to the southeast later
this evening. As previously alluded to, confidence in any storms
being sustained this afternoon is still low (~20%), but there
should at least be attempts at initiation as a minor perturbation
near the TX-NM border arrives and invigorates the environment.

Moisture will stick around the eastern Panhandles overnight, and
we could see some patchy dense fog develop as light winds and
clear skies help temperatures cool towards the dew point. Any
fog/low clouds should burn off through the morning, especially as
a weak cold front moves in. While temperatures won`t be
drastically different, guidance continues to come in with cooler
highs behind the front in the upper 80s to low 90s for the
northern Panhandles, while the southern Panhandles stay hot in
the mid to upper 90s. Another trend amongst guidance for tomorrow
is that better quality theta-e advection to the area behind the
front will occur, helping to initiate elevated convection over the
central to eastern Panhandles tomorrow afternoon-evening. Have
therefore introduced 10-20% POPs in case we can manage a few
storms, which could be capable of hail and strong wind gusts.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 60s the next couple of
nights with occasionally breezy winds behind the front tomorrow
morning.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Wednesday through next Monday weather pattern has a high chance of
being a ridge building over the desert SW and becoming the
dominate feature across the panhandles.

For Wednesday this ridge has a high chance of bringing drier air
to the panhandles leading to fair weather conditions. Under the
ridge the panhandles will still be hot with highs remaining in the
90s.

Then on Thursday the ridge will start to flatten to the NE as a
trough moves across the Great Lakes region. This will shift the
orientation of the ridge such that a NW flow has a high chance of
setting up across the southern plains. This would overall would be
a similar pattern to the one that caused the thunderstorms end of
May to early June. With the pattern shaping up the way it is the
winds will have better chance than not to be from a southerly to
southeasterly direction and weakly gusty. These winds will assist
in bringing moisture to the panhandles. Thursday being the first
day of the new NW flow pattern should see some limited moisture
move into the panhandles leading to a low chance of rain showers
and thunderstorms. As the pattern matures for Friday through
Monday it has better odds than not to bring abnormally high amount
of moisture to the panhandles. This would to a more extensive
amount of rain showers and thunderstorms that could occur anywhere
in the panhandles during the afternoon and evening each day.
There will even be a chance for nocturnal convection if any small
short wave trough pass through during any of the nights. There is
already indication that the thunderstorms may become strong to
severe with the passage of small short wave troughs and dry lines
setting up. Since this upcoming event reflects the current severe
weather setups the confidence that the panhandles will see severe
weather is higher than normal this far out from the event. As the
end of the week into early next week will likely be active with
ample clouds and a slighter weaker ridge the temperatures have a
moderate to high chance of decreasing. This would see the highs
fall into the 80s to 90s across much of the panhandles.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Very low ceilings and visibilities are moving in with the advent
of fog and low level clouds building in from the southeast.
Flight rules have already gone to LIFR/IFR at AMA and are also
expected to do so at DHT and GUY within the first few hours of the
TAF period. These conditions will eventually lift by sunrise,
between 12-14Z. Afterwards, breezy surface winds will be present
at all sites. The direction will be generally northerly, wind more
of a northeasterly flow be the late afternoon and evening.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                95  64  94  66 /  20  10   0   0
Beaver OK                  90  62  96  66 /  10  10   0   0
Boise City OK              88  58  94  62 /  10   0   0   0
Borger TX                  96  65  98  69 /  20  10   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              97  63  97  66 /  10   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  96  63  93  64 /  10   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               96  65  92  66 /  10  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 92  59  95  62 /  10   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  90  60  95  63 /  10   0   0   0
Hereford TX                97  63  95  65 /  10   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                91  63  96  67 /  10  10   0   0
Pampa TX                   93  64  93  67 /  20  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                95  66  94  66 /  10  20   0   0
Wellington TX              96  67  95  67 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...55