Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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322 FXUS63 KAPX 020201 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1001 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers this evening into the overnight. - Chances for showers/storms late Monday night through Tuesday. - Cooler temperatures and occasionally wet weather late this week into next weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1001 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Synopsis: 00z surface/composite analysis shows a somewhat disorganized pattern across the Great Lakes and Midwest...1011mb surface low over Illinois associated with a short wave trough. A cold front stretched from northern Ontario into northeast Minnesota attached to a stronger short wave trough spinning over northwest Ontario. There is also a weak PV anomaly whose upward vertical motion field was crossing Upper Michigan per WV imagery. The short wave trough over the mid Mississippi Valley has spread an area of rain northeast into Lower Michigan...aided by some right entrance region jet forcing and a surge of 1.25-1.50+ inch precipitable water values getting transported into Lower Michigan. Low level frontogenesis/deformation has enhanced rainfall rates over the southwest corner of the forecast area during the late afternoon/ early evening...LDM picked up nearly 0.80 inch of rain from 20z-00z and CAD nearly 0.25 inch with 0.25+ inch/hour rainfall rates. To the northwest spotty rain showers occurring over central Upper with some isolated convection moving into far western Upper. Earlier showers over the Arrowhead of Minnesota dissipated over western Lake Superior but pushing an undular bore across the Keweenaw Peninsula. Forecast Update: Bumped up QPF a bit over the southwest given what has occurred so far though expect that rainfall rates will taper off as forcing weakens later this evening. Even as back edge of rain shield pushes east fairly deep layer of moisture moves into tonight and with some low level convergence may continue to squeeze out some drizzle or misty light rain overnight and into Sunday morning over far northeast Lower. Clouds should be persistent across most of the area into Sunday morning and should tend to mix out into a Cu deck. Suspect that clouds over northeast Lower may be more intransigent and have been a little more pessimistic there through the morning. Should be a good lake breeze day with some hints for some convection developing along colliding lake breezes in central/eastern Upper Sunday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 227 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Short wave trough and weak low pressure system currently across IL is producing showers downstream, but largely virga across the Northwoods. This feature will continue to move northeast into this evening and overnight slowly moistening the atmosphere and thus spreading showery activity across the region. By Sunday midday, system ejects east with zonal flow and or slight height rises engulfing the region. Primary Forecast Concerns: Quick moving upper level and coupled weak sfc system will move from Illinois area into Michigan this evening and overnight. At first the low levels of the atmosphere will be a little too dry to produce precipitation, as shown in progged soundings, but eventually a good chunk of northern lower will see rain showers, and steady rain for some. Could see some modest rain amounts along and east of US-127 and south of M-72. The farther north the less precipitation with just a few rain showers near and in the vicinity of the tip of the mitt. Overall not all that impactful with temperatures in the 50s tonight and light winds. Some showers activity may linger near Alpena during the morning hours on Sunday, but generally the upper level system ejects to the east thus ending precipitation chances. Zonal flow/slight height rises and thus drier conditions are expected on Sunday with seasonable temperatures as well. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 227 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Pattern Forecast: Shortwave troughing is expected to be east of the area by early Sunday morning with shortwave ridging likely to build across the western Great Lakes during the day Sunday. Ridging amplifies through early this week as troughing digs upstream across southwest Canada into the northwest third of the CONUS. By midweek, that troughing slides overhead, potentially cutting off over the Great Lakes region and remaining nearly stationary all the way through next weekend. At the surface, high pressure largely expected to be in control Sunday through Monday. Effects from upstream low pressure perhaps felt as early as late Monday night/Tuesday with additional periodic chances for unsettled weather through the remainder of the forecast period as low pressure tied to the aforementioned upper-level cutoff plagues the region. Forecast Details: Mainly clear skies Monday night with low temperatures largely in the upper 40s to mid-50s. Low-level southeasterly flow aids to boost temperatures to near 80/low 80s away from the immediate lakeshores on Monday. By Monday afternoon, scattered convection is expected to be ongoing upstream across eastern MN, WI and the western/central U.P. This activity will at least initially have trouble with eastward extent given sufficiently dry air locally; however, moisture fields to gradually increase Monday evening, and more so Monday night - Tuesday. While uncertainty remains with coverage of potential precip locally (latest trends support coverage remaining pretty low), there remains enough support to continue inherited PoPs through this time frame. Some rumbles of thunder possible as well, especially as we get into Tuesday afternoon. High temps Tuesday back into the 80s for many areas with dew points creeping into the low 60s -- likely resulting in a fairly sticky/humid day by northern MI standards. Mid-week and onward, guidance remains fairly consistent with troughing trekking into the region, cutting off and stalling overhead through much of the upcoming weekend. This ultimately would support a rather lengthy stretch of cooler temperatures and periodic shower chances. Coolest temperatures (60s and low 70s for highs) progged to be Thursday through next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 752 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Rain band across Lower Michigan early this evening will shift east across the state tonight and should be out of northeast Lower prior to 12z. Rain chances should be minimal at KCIU/KPLN and probably not much more than sprinkles at KAPN. Even as back edge of rain shield passes moist layer remains fairly deep with some convergence may squeeze out some drizzle at KMBL/KTVC/KAPN. Bigger question is potential for IFR ceilings overnight with indication of low level moistening and low clouds likely advecting northward. Some reasonable probabilities for ceilings dropping below 1000ft at KMBL/KTVC/KAPN (40-50 percent) in the 04z-12z window at KMBL/KTVC and after 09z at KAPN. Clouds should mix into a Cu deck and thin out during the day Sunday though am suspicious of how long it may take KAPN to get back to VFR conditions (may take most of the morning under MVFR ceilings). && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JPB SHORT TERM...JLD LONG TERM...MJG AVIATION...JPB