000
FXUS63 KAPX 111003
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
603 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST...MAINTAINING DRY
CONDITIONS TODAY UNDER SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING AND PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL BRING THE
RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT...
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE START OF NEXT WORK
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

OVERVIEW: SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THIS MORNING. SOMEWHAT ZONAL MID LEVEL
FLOW STRETCHES FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A
STRONGER CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL CANADA. ANOTHER
PIECE OF JET ENERGY PUSHING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH MINNESOTA INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN GREAT
LAKES. RETURN FLOW LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. INTERACTION OF THE SHORT WAVE
WITH THAT INSTABILITY AXIS PRODUCING A BATCH OF SHOWERS (AND SOME
THUNDER) OVER MINNESOTA...PUSHING INTO THE FAR NW GREAT LAKES. HERE
AT HOME...HAVE ENJOYED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM THE UPSTREAM PRECIP IS ALREADY
NOSING INTO THE CWA ALONG WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUD EDGING INTO THE
REGION OUT OF WISCONSIN.

TODAY...AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WILL MAKE IT/S WAY ACROSS THE NRN
GREAT LAKES AND BRING INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE
REGION. PRECIP CHANCES HOWEVER ARE A BIT MORE NEBULOUS. ONGOING
UPSTREAM PRECIP IN THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING LOOKING TO OUTRUN
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS...WHICH WILL ONLY SLOWLY EDGE INTO THE FAR
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. THUS...ANTICIPATE
CURRENT BATCH OF SHOWERS/THUNDER TO FALL APART AS IT ADVANCES
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES. PERHAPS A FEW BLIPS WILL MAKE IT
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CANADA ADVANCES INTO THE
HUDSON BAY REGION WHILE ATTENDING SFC COLD FRONT GETS STRETCHED AND
SLOWLY FOLDS INTO THE FAR NW GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY MORNING.
UPSTREAM MOISTURE/THETA-E AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALSO GETS
STRETCHED INTO THE NRN/WRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH IN
TURN RAISES THE POSSIBILITIES OF PRECIP CHANCES AS WE GO THROUGH THE
NIGHT. BUT LIKE SO MANY EVENTS THIS SUMMER THUS FAR...FORCING
(LLJ...SYNOPTIC...ETC) ALONG THE ADVANCING INSTABILITY AXIS LOOKS
MEAGER AT BEST AND ONCE AGAIN ITS A MUCH BETTER SET-UP FOR
CONVECTION/MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
MIDWEST. SO...I/M JUST NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES FOR
NRN MICHIGAN. THE "BEST" CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER LOOK
TO BE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN/LAKE SUPERIOR REGION OVERNIGHT WHERE THE
LOW LEVEL JET AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER.
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN MAY SEE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP OTHER THAN SOME
REMNANT SHOWERS TRYING TO SQUEEZE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

...SOME WET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND/WITH SIGNIFICANT MID SUMMER COOLDOWN
LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO START NEXT WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. GENERIC THUNDERSTORM
CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND (LIGHTNING/BRIEF HEAVY RAIN). PERHAPS RECORD
SETTING COLD CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: HEMISPHERIC 5-WAVE H5
HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWS ALL-TO-FAMILIAR PATTERN OF EASTERN NOAM
TROUGHING DOWNSTREAM OF TROUGH/RIDGE CONFIGURATION ACROSS EAST
PACIFIC/WESTERN NOAM. WHILE ABOVE BACKGROUND FIELD REMAINS
ROCK-STEADY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AMPLIFICATION OF
RIDGE/TROUGH FEATURES WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK...NO DOUBT SPURRED ALONG BY FAR WEST PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN
EXCITEMENT VIA DECAYING TROPICAL SYSTEM NEOGURI. ABOVE NOT ONLY
SUPPORTS SOME PERIODIC WET WEATHER FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN...BUT ALSO
OPENS THE DOOR FOR SOME POTENTIAL RECORD SETTING COLD MID-SUMMER
CONDITIONS AS ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGHING DIVES OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GOOD NEWS IS SUCH RIDICULOUS AMPLIFICATION LOOKS RELATIVELY
BRIEF...WITH A RETURN TO SOMEWHAT A MORE ZONAL FLOW FLAVOR BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. AH...THE JOYS OF A NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUMMER.
FANTASTIC!

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: FULL PERIOD TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AND SHOWER/STORM EVOLUTION.

DETAILS: A CHALLENGING..."MESSY" SHOWER AND STORM FORECAST HEADING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS MENTIONED...OVERALL BACKGROUND LARGE SCALE
FEATURES ESSENTIALLY REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED
MUCH OF THIS "WARM" SEASON. WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON RECENT TRENDS WITH
REGARDS TO FORECASTING SHOWER/STORM EVOLUTION THIS WEEKEND. RATHER
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES
HEADING INTO SATURDAY WITH PIPELINE OF CURRENT SOUTHWEST CONUS
MONSOON MOISTURE EXPANDING NORTHEAST BETWEEN DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH
AND DECAYING NORTHWEST LAKES COLD FRONT. PWATS SURGE TO NEAR 1.5
INCH LEVELS EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING OFF LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. NOW...ABOUT DYNAMICS TO WORK ON SUCH. NOT
IMPRESSED..WITH LOW LEVEL SURFACE CONVERGENCE LESSENING WITH
TIME...AND REALLY NO SIGNIFICANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
PATTERN REMAINS RIPE FOR ADDITIONAL MCS DEVELOPMENT (PART OF THAT
WHOLE PERSISTENT PATTERN THING TALKED ABOUT EARLIER) BACK ACROSS THE
CORN BELT AND LOWER LAKES...LIKELY FURTHER NEGATING A MORE
WIDESPREAD NORTHERN MICHIGAN RAIN EVENT. INHERITED FORECAST
DEMONSTRATES THIS WELL...FEATURING LOW END POPS TO INDICATE MORE OF
A SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM EVOLUTION FOR THE NORTHERN LAKES. WILL ONLY
MASSAGE SUCH...LEAVING IDEA THAT NO WASHOUT IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND. LACK OF DEEPER INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

REAL INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST TAKES SHAPE HEADING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK AS PATTERN
AMPLIFICATION KICKS INTO OVERDRIVE. HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL...AN ANOMALOUS SUMMERTIME EVENT FOR SURE AS DEEP CLOSED
LOW PLOWS OVERHEAD BY TUESDAY. SIMPLY MAGNITUDE OF MID LEVEL COOLING
(H5 TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEGATIVE LOWER 20S BY EARLY TUESDAY) AND
SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH PARENT TROUGH SUPPORTS PERIODIC
BOUTS OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW/LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO KEEP THINGS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH H8 TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...
SUPPORTS HIGHS BY TUESDAY STUCK MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S. RECENT
OVER-PERFORMING COOL EVENTS/ANTICIPATED THERMAL PROGS DEFINITELY
SUPPORTS SOME OF THE NORTHERN LOWER INTERIOR HIGHLANDS AND PARTS OF
EASTERN UPPER LIKELY NOT EVEN REACHING 60 DEGREES. PERUSAL OF
WEATHER RECORDS CONCURS WITH JUST HOW SUBSTANTIAL THIS COOL DOWN
COULD BE...AS ANTICIPATED HIGHS ON TUESDAY WOULD NEAR...OR
BREAK...COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON RECORD FOR JULY 15TH AT MANY
NORTHERN MICHIGAN LOCATIONS!

WHILE SUCH DEEP SYSTEMS ARE OFTEN SLOWER TO YIELD THAN GUIDANCE WOULD
SUGGEST...HAVE TO BELIEVE SIMPLE AIRMASS MODIFICATION WOULD SUPPORT
HIGHS GRADUALLY WARMING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WILL KEEP THINGS DRY
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO REEVALUATE
SPEED OF SYSTEM DEPARTURE TO SEE IF MORE SHOWER CHANCES ARE
WARRANTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
SCT-BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SSW WINDS UP AROUND 10 KNOTS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING AGAIN THIS EVENING.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIP
THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. BUT ANY PRECIP SHOULD LARGELY HOLD
OFF AT ALL TERMINAL SITES UNTIL AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...AND HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN ANY TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

INCREASING S/SW FLOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT... PARTICULARLY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WHITEFISH BAY
WHERE SOME THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE. BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG WITH STRONGER WINDS COME LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM