Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 291750

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
150 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Issued at 1119 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Current radar shows very sporadic light rain showers south of M-72
along with mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures under the cloud
coverage are only a few degrees cooler than the rest of the
forecast area...still near 70 to 75 degrees, with the warmer areas
near or under breaks in the cloud cover. Have trended cloud cover
farther south than what was in the inherited forecast, along with
taking thunder out for the morning and early afternoon hours as
the morning sounding showed a pretty good cap around 750-800mb,
which would take a good deal of heating to overcome.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Broad low-amplitude upper level troughing remains over the Great
Lakes region early this morning. Surface pattern is rather diffuse
and weak across he entire Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Short wave
riding very slowly thru the upper level trough continues to produce
a broken area of weak convection across portions of Wisconsin and
Lower Michigan...fueled by 250-500 J/kg of MUCAPE and the northern
fringe of 850 mb theta E ridging. Areal coverage of this convection
has increased over the past few hours as suggested by a few of the
short term models. Some thunder continues along the southern edge of
the convection within the area of best instability.

NAM12...RAP13 and latest HRRR all show this area of convection
steadily diminishing toward daybreak and thru the morning hours.
Focus for convective development will shift further south into
Illinois... Indiana and the Ohio Valley where MUCAPES increase to
2000-3000 J/kg by afternoon and strong 850 mb theta E ridging will
reside. Our far southern CWA will remain just along the northern
fringe of weak instability and moisture...with weak upper level
troughing remaining in place. This could be just enough to give
locations along and south of M-55 continued small chances of showers
and possibly an isold thunderstorm today and into tonight. POPs will
quickly taper off north of this area...with dry wx and skies
becoming mostly sunny today.

Temps will be right around normal today and tonight. Afternoon highs
will warm into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Overnight lows
will cool back into the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 355 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

...Sun north/some more clouds south Saturday...

High Impact Weather Potential (Saturday-Sunday): Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast (Through Sunday): Large scale pattern
features broad long wave troughing across eastern North America...
with a closed upper anticyclone over the Great Basin/southwest/
California.  General "bagginess" to the upper level pattern will
persist into the weekend...though main conduit for upper level
disturbances will be mostly south of the forecast area so one of the
issues for the weekend is how close to northern Michigan with the
more active weather get.

A wavy slow-moving front snakes its way from New England through the
Ohio valley and back into the central high plains early this
morning. Large swath of 1.50+ in precipitable water values along and
south of this boundary from Texas into southern New England.  A
broad area of high pressure was centered over the southern Prairie
provinces/North Dakota and stretched east into the Upper Peninsula.
This ridge will try and build into northern Lower Michigan for the
weekend...allowing for a drier low level easterly trajectory to try
and help keep the bulk of the precipitation south of the area
through Sunday though it will be close along the M-55 corridor.

Primary Forecast Concerns (Through Sunday): Looks like a bit of a
north-south "sunshine gradient" this weekend...and how far north
will rain threat get?

Saturday...Axis of deeper moisture will be hanging around across
southern Lower Michigan along a weak mid level shear axis aided by a
short wave trough swinging into southern Lower during the afternoon.
Not going to be able to totally rule out some rain sneaking across
the M-55 corridor...will carry more clouds to the south with
increasing sunshine farther north.  Some attempt at a lake breeze
will try to develop along the northwest Lower shoreline...but will
probably be too dry to prevent any development along it.  Afternoon
highs upper 70s-lower 80s expected.  Still some lingering clouds
along the M-55 corridor and especially around Saginaw Bay Saturday

Sunday...Looking like a pretty nice Sunday with lake breezes
abounding and temperatures within a few degrees either side of 80
for afternoon highs.

Extended Forecast (Monday through Thursday)...Looks like the start
of next week should be dry with rain chances increasing toward
midweek and particularly on Thursday.  Temperatures will be on the
rise as well next week with highs getting back toward 90 degrees
once again by Wednesday along with increasing humidity.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 127 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Fairly benign weather pattern continues. A broad upper-level
trough with surface high pressure will continue to persist
throughout the TAF period, with only slight chances of
precipitation for mainly MBL, where deeper moisture will continue
to linger. Chances of MBL seeing precipitation tomorrow afternoon
is less than 20 percent, so with the low confidence, opted to keep
it out of the TAF for now. Northeast winds will continue through
the afternoon hours and become light during the overnight hours.
After diurnal heating tomorrow, expect winds to become easterly
during the early afternoon hours, and then the more traditional
lake breeze directions for APN and TVC during the middle to late
afternoon hours.


Issued at 355 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru Saturday night
thanks to a rather weak pressure and wind pattern remaining
overhead. Chances of showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm
will continue for locations south of M-72 thru tonight as a weak
wave interacts with limited instability and moisture.


.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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