108
FXUS61 KBGM 091746
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
146 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving disturbance will bring rain to the region this
morning, with a brief lull late in the morning into the early
afternoon. Rain showers will return to Central New York this
afternoon, while Northeast Pennsylvania remains mainly dry.
Additional scattered showers are possible on Monday. Drier
conditions will arrive Monday evening, and will last through
most of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
146 PM Update:

A west-east oriented line of convective showers has developed
just south of the NYS Thruway, along a boundary likely enhanced
by winds off Lake Ontario. These showers will persist for a
little ways further SE, but with weak instability and
diminishing influence from the lake, will likely weaken.

However, a more organized batch of showers and thunderstorms
will sweep NW to SE across the area very late this afternoon
into this evening, diminishing in intensity as it heads into
NEPA. Tweaked PoPs upwards with this feature given fairly high
confidence in timing.


650 AM Update:

The forecast remains mainly on track and no significant changes
were needed with this update.

355 AM Update:

A fast-moving shortwave pushing through the area is bringing a
steady light to moderate rainfall for parts of Central NY,
particularly across the Finger Lakes Region-Mohawk Valley. While
most of the rest of Central NY and all of Northeast PA is still
dry, this rain will be dropping southward into those areas by
dawn, but still more concentrated across Central NY.

As this wave moves through, a brief lull in the rain shower
activity is expected by late morning. However, cyclonic flow,
combined with diurnally-driven instability will bring additional
rain showers and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon. Once again, these showers will be mainly concentrated
across Central NY with a lower chance for Northeast PA.
Otherwise today will be mostly cloudy, with some breaks of sun
this afternoon. Highs are expected to be in the mid 60s to mid
70s.

Coverage of showers will wane this evening with the loss of
diurnal heating. However, with continued cyclonic flow, still
cannot rule out a few isolated showers. Otherwise, skies will be
partly to mostly cloudy with lows mainly in the upper 40s to
lower 50s.

Another shortwave trough digging into the region will bring
another chance for scattered showers on Monday. With 850mb
temperatures only around +5C, it will be rather cool for June
standards with highs only in the lower 60s to near 70. Some of
the higher elevations of Central NY may not even get out of the
upper 50s for highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM Forecast...

Showers exit the region during the evening, with some lingering
chances up in Oneida and Madison counties. Mostly northerly flow
on the west side of the positively tilted trough over New
England will keep the cold Canadian airmass over the region
during the overnight hours. Temperatures will be cool for June,
falling into the mid 40s for most. Some low 50s will remain in
the Mohawk and Wyoming valleys.

Tuesday will be warmer and dry for most. A mid-level ridge
builds in from the SW, but the exiting trough will have enough
influence to allow some pop up afternoon showers across the
Catskills and Poconos. Temps will climb into the mid 60s to low
70s across the region.

The upper level wind pattern will continue to be northerly over
the area Tuesday night, and with the mid-level ridge building in
and winds becoming light and skies clearing out, the cool
airmass will stick around. Lows will be slightly warmer, but
temps will still be in the mid 40s to low 50s.

Winds slowly shift to WSW during the day Wednesday as the ridge
continues to build into the region. A very lovely spring day is
in store for the region with seasonable highs in the mid to
upper 70s, partly cloudy skies and dry conditions. Wednesday
night will warmer than the past few nights as the ridge
continues to bring warm air into the region. Lows will be in the
mid to upper 50s with dry conditions expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
320 AM Forecast...

As the axis of the ridge slides east of the region on Wednesday
night and Thursday, SW flow will pump warm and moist air into
the CWA, pushing temps into the mid to upper 80s on Thursday.
Guidance begins to diverge here with the timing and positioning
of the next trough that will move in from Canada. A cold front
and rain showers/thunderstorms should push through the region
sometime Friday to Friday night. The GFS has a quicker solution
with a much more amplified trough while the Euro has a flatter
trough and slower solution. Given the uncertainty, NBM guidance
was used.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ceilings have finally lifted to VFR across the area, and will be
predominate through the afternoon. A few isolated convective
showers, which could become thunderstorms, have developed across
north-central NY along a lake breeze-enhanced boundary. These
will be sliding off SE of SYR shortly.

Otherwise, a more organized band of showers and embedded
(isolated) thunderstorms is expected to push NW to SE across the
area this evening. Expect brief MVFR ceilings and visibilities
close to IFR as they push through the region, and diminish in
intensity as they move into NE PA.

MVFR ceilings behind the organized showers will slowly drop into
fuel alt range, with IFR possible before dawn at BGM and perhaps
ITH, the latter favored by wind direction. Ceilings will be
rather slow to rise on Monday.

Outlook...

Monday Afternoon...Ceilings will be slow to lift into MVFR
range, then VFR by mid to late afternoon. Another round of
showers is also possible.

Monday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...Restrictions possible in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...BJG/MPH