599
FXUS61 KBTV 090801
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
401 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will continue to control the regions
weather through Monday with scattered to numerous diurnal
showers each day, along with a slight chance for thunderstorms.
Drier conditions return mid-week along with more seasonally warm
temperatures, but the threat for showers returns for the end of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...Cool weather will prevail for today
through tomorrow, along with continued chances for showers as we
remain under upper level trough through the period. Upper level
trough will be over the region today, with strong vorticity
advection passing overhead this morning. This will bring fairly
widespread rain to the region, and it will be heavy at times.
Area of rain crosses the area from about 4 am till 4 pm. Part of
the forecast area most likely to see heavy rain is along a line
from Lake Placid to Montpelier to St Johnsbury and points south
of there. Rainfall totals in that area will be around a half to
three quarters of an inch. The rest of our area will have
totals closer to a quarter to four tenths of an inch of
rainfall. There will also be a chance for some thunderstorms
this afternoon, though surface based instability will be pretty
limited, there is a cold pool aloft associated with upper low
very near to the area. Soundings continue to show some steep low
level lapse rates and just a little CAPE, so we can`t rule out
thunder this afternoon. Small hail will be possible from any
stronger cores with pretty low freezing levels in place also.
Maximum temperatures today will range through the 60s. Looks
like we`ll have a bit of a break in the shower activity
overnight, though the region will remain cloudy. Minimum
temperatures will be mild, ranging from the upper 40s to mid
50s. Chance for showers will increase again during the day
Monday as more shortwave energy passes through base of upper
level trough which will still remain overhead. Surface based
instability will be even more limited on Monday, and have
continued to leave out mention of thunder for now. Maximum
temperatures on Monday will range from the lower 60s to lower
70s, coolest in Northern New York.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...Conditions trend drier for Tuesday as
the closed upper low finally pushes to the east and high
pressure begins to build overhead. Some diurnally driven showers
may still be possible during the afternoon, especially across
the Northeast Kingdom which is closer to the periphery of the
departing upper low, although they will be less widespread than
previous days. Temperatures on Tuesday will seasonable, with
high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. Any showers that
do develop during the afternoon will quickly taper off towards
the evening, with dry conditions overnight and seasonable
overnight low temperatures in the mid 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...The break in the unsettled pattern
can be expected for mid-week as high pressure builds overhead.
Temperatures will warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s for the
second half of the week, which is a few degrees above normal for
this time of year. Overnight low temperatures will largely be
in the 50s to low 60s for most of next week. Chances for
precipitation return before the end of the week, generally
Thursday or Friday depending on the guidance. Despite the
chances for precipitation, showers look to be very diurnally
driven and scattered rather than a complete wash out. There is
still a lot of uncertainty as to how long the unsettled weather
lingers, with several of the deterministic global models showing
the precipitation through Saturday. Given the high uncertainty
at this point, continued with a chance to slight chance of
showers through Saturday before more dry weather makes a return.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Rain showers are expected to return around
09Z-15Z, which could lower visibilities at times to MVFR
levels. Steadiest rain will occur for southern sites, like RUT,
MPV, and even SLK, likely just scraping northern most sites MSS
and EFK. Ceilings will lower with this bout of precipitation,
dropping to MVFR and occasional IFR levels around the same time
precipitation moves through. Ceilings should begin to improve
around 15Z-19Z, though rain and rain showers could continue
through 00z. Showers should die down from 00z-06z but some of
the lower ceilings will remain.

Outlook...

Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Neiles