390
FXUS61 KBTV 081649
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1249 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure will control the regions weather
through Monday with scattered to numerous diurnal showers each
day, along with a slight chance for thunderstorms. Drier
conditions return mid-week, but turn unsettled again towards
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1249 PM EDT Saturday...Afternoon forecast remains on
track with scattered to numerous shower abound. Activity is very
hit or miss so not a washout for any specific location, but the
likelihood of briefly getting wet is good, especially across
northern zones where the latest RAP analysis shows an elongated
area of PVU rotating into the region from southern Ontario.
Temps have struggled to warm though, so adjustments were made to
lower max temps a couple of degrees. Lightning threat remains
very low as well, but kept a slight chance in the forecast
through late afternoon.

Previous discussion...
Some showers have continued through the overnight as base of
upper trough and center of upper low shifts over the North
Country. We should have a break in the showers later this
morning as shortwave energy pushes out of our forecast area.
But, expect diurnally driven showers once again this afternoon
with a slight chance for thunderstorms as well. With cold pool
aloft under upper level low which will remain stationary over
our region through Sunday, there will be a chance for showers
with thunderstorms possible each afternoon. Could also see some
small hail with thunderstorms, but strong winds should not be a
concern. Showers will decrease in coverage after sunset both
this evening and Sunday evening. Surface temperatures will be
cooler than normal during the day and near normal overnight. QPF
will vary quite a bit, but some areas will have heavier rain if
they have multiple thunderstorms at one location. From today
through Sunday average rainfall will be around a quarter of an
inch to three quarters of an inch, with locally higher amounts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 344 AM EDT Saturday...Unsettled weather will continue as
a closed upper low over the region slowly meanders eastward.
Showers will be diurnally driven for the most part, with
increased areal coverage in showers during the afternoon before
dwindling during the evening hours. Temperatures during the day
on Monday will continue to be on the cooler side, with highs in
the 60s to low 70s. Overnight lows will be near seasonal, with
temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 344 AM EDT Saturday...A break in the unsettled pattern
can be expected for mid-week as the closed upper low pushes away
and a period of surface high pressure builds across the region.
Cooler temperatures will trend towards seasonal normals, with
highs on Tuesday in the mid to upper 70s before warming into the
upper 70s to lower 80s for the second half of next week.
Overnight low temperatures will largely be in the 50s for most
of next week. Unsettled conditions will return as another upper-
level trough swings through, although there is still plenty of
uncertainty regarding timing so largely stuck to NBM guidance
with some chances for precipitation starting Thursday into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...VFR conditions will largely prevail
through 09Z Sunday with scattered to numerous showers through
00Z briefly reducing vsby/cigs to MVFR. Winds will be
additionally gusty up to 22kts at KMSS/KSLK through 00Z,
otherwise WSW at 8-12kts with gusts to 16-18kts before trending
calm overnight. After 09Z Sunday, another round of more
prevailing rain moves into the region along with MVFR ceilings
and visibility, though lowest vis will be south. Winds pick up
again from the SSW at 8-10kts after 14Z.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Lahiff