870
FXUS64 KCRP 060449
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1149 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The line of showers and thunderstorms that pushed across the
eastern half of the CWA this morning has drifted into the coastal
waters as of writing. Strong winds have persisted behind it with
gusts to 35-40 knots currently occurring across portions of the
southern Coastal Bend and over the marine zones.

The question is...will convection redevelop later this afternoon
and evening? Well, uncertainty remains fairly high with CAMs
continuing to diverge significantly in development and progression
of additional storms. The driving factor for this afternoon and
evening`s round of convection lies primarily on the passage of a
mid-level shortwave on the eastern periphery of a ridge near the
Four Corners. To add to it, very high instability remains in place
especially across the west with CAPE values exceeding 5000 J/kg
based on LAPS analysis, along with very steep lapse rates. Given
the high uncertainty in the forecast have opted for siding with
the NBM and maintaining PoPs below 30% through tonight, but
keeping in mind that updates will be needed if convection is
allowed to fire up. DCAPE values are also very high (>1500 J/kg),
therefore strong winds will continue to be a primary hazard for
any thunderstorm that is able to form. With such high instability
large hail certainly remains a threat as well. SPC has maintained
the area under a Marginal risk for severe weather through 12Z
Thursday.

Rain and thunderstorm chances will diminish areawide Thursday into
Thurday night as the aforementioned ridge begins to build further
east. Very warm temperatures are in store again on Thursday with
another Moderate to Extreme risk of heat related impacts. However,
temperatures will run a few degrees cooler, and mostly Advisory
conditions are expected tomorrow. In regards to the coastal flood,
another Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the next high
tide cycle. Although seas, winds and swell periods will continue
to subside offshore, tides have been running over a foot above
predicted. Given this trend continues, P-ETTS indicate tide
levels reaching 1.9-2.0 MSL again tomorrow, hence the Advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Key Message:

- Dangerous heat continues with a moderate to major risk for heat-
  related impacts

As we move into the end of the work week, a high-pressure ridge will
build over the region. The resulting increased stability will
significantly reduce the chances of rain through the weekend.
However, by late Sunday, the ridge will start to weaken as a mid-
level low and attendant trough moves southward across the Midwest.
Operational guidance is hinting at indications of an unusual June
cold front arriving mid-week next week. Bringing back low chances 20-
30% for precipitation Monday with slightly lower chances 15-25%
Tuesday and around a 15% chance Wednesday. Confidence is not high as
model guidance diverges around this time so will have to monitor the
trends. Stay tuned for updates!

In the meantime, temperatures will relax a bit as slightly drier air
is expected to result in Heat indices between 105-109 degrees,
posing a moderate to major risk for heat-related impacts through the
long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

CIGs and VSBYs are expected to be predominantly VFR overnight
with periods of MVFR. ALI to VCT are the most likely to have
patchy fog and low clouds toward early Thursday morning. The SREF
probability of visibilities less than 1SM is low (<20%). Thus, IFR
conditions are not expected, but can not be ruled out. Have
included TEMPOs to address brief MVFR conditions generally after
08Z through around 13Z. VFR conditions will prevail during the day
Thursday along with light south to southeast winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A line of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across
the coastal waters this afternoon, with very strong winds possible
with this activity. Once the storms clear out, winds will become
weak to moderate in the evening, decreasing to weak levels by
early Thursday. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will
persist across the Gulf waters through this evening as seas have
been slower to subside. Weak onshore flow Friday becomes weak to
moderate flow Saturday and persists into next week. There is a low
20% chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday, increasing to
low to moderate 20 to 45% chance Monday and Tuesday next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    80  96  78  95 /  20  10   0   0
Victoria          76  98  75  97 /  20  10   0   0
Laredo            79 102  77 103 /  20  10   0   0
Alice             77 100  76  98 /  20  10   0   0
Rockport          81  93  81  92 /  20  10   0   0
Cotulla           78 103  77 103 /  20   0   0   0
Kingsville        80  98  78  96 /  20  10   0   0
Navy Corpus       82  92  81  91 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANM
LONG TERM....BF
AVIATION...TE/81