Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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072 FXUS64 KCRP 071935 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 235 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... Moderate to major risk for heat related illness Wednesday There`s a Moderate Risk for Rip currents through Wednesday morning .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 159 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 The temperature inversion will become quite shallow overnight as subsident southwesterly low level flow develops off the Sierra Madre Mts in Mexico and spreads over South Texas. The inversion will trap moisture in the boundary layer where overcast conditions are expected to persist tonight with ceilings transitioning to IFR and then LIFR late. Some patchy fog is also possible. Adiabatic mixing of the subsident airmass on Wednesday will result in hot temperatures across much of the region with highs ranging from near 90 in VCT, to upper 90s in Corpus Christi, and around 106 in Laredo. Combined with the humidity and the heat index will reach dangerous levels in excess of 110 degrees over portions of the Southern Coastal Bend. Thus we have issued a Heat Advisory for Nueces, Jim Wells and Kleberg Counties from 18z-00z Wed. Heat Indices of 105 to 109 can be expected over the remainder of the area. The rather light winds will not offer much relief from the heat, so our message is to drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 159 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Key Messages: Moderate to Major risk of heat-related impacts with near record high temperatures Thursday Weak cold front early Friday morning Low (20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday, increasing to a low to moderate (30-40%) chance Sunday and Monday Near record high temperatures are expected Thursday as near climatological max 850mb temperatures mix down and cause a moderate to major heat risk across South Texas. Laredo`s record high is 108 back in 2011 forecast to reach 107 and Corpus Christi`s record high is 100 back in 1998 forecast to reach 98. Heat index values are expected to reach the triple digits across all of South Texas with a medium chance of at least 110 over Nueces and Kleberg counties. A Heat Advisory may be needed as this level of heat affects most individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling. Thankfully, a weak cold front will pass through the area overnight Thursday night into early Friday morning, resulting in relief from the dangerous heat with highs and feels-like temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90. In addition, isentropic lift with weak condensation deficits combined with well above normal moisture (PWATs ~ 1.75") will lead to a low (20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. The boundary will retreat northwestward as a warm front Saturday afternoon into evening. Another mid-level trough will progress eastward across the Great Plains early next week and act as a reinforcing surge of high pressure, pushing the front back into South Texas and meander Sunday evening into Monday. There are model discrepancies with the mid-level flow, resulting in low confidence with the position of the front. Either way, the close proximity to the front and even higher moisture (99th percentile with PWATs near 2.0") will lead to a better (30-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. On the bright side, there is a less than 10% chance of temperatures reaching 90 degrees east of Duval County this weekend! && .MARINE... Light to moderate onshore winds can be expected Tonight through Thursday night. A cold front will move off the coast early Friday morning. Winds will shift to the northeast and strengthen to moderate levels Friday and Saturday. Winds become easterly on Sunday. There is a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday, increasing to a medium 30 to 40 percent chance Sunday through Monday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 MVFR Ceilings should eventually become VFR in the next few hours as mixing continues. Some clearing is likely across the Rio Grande and Brush Country, but VFR clouds should linger across the Coastal Plains where moisture is deeper. IFR Ceilings return this evening with tempo LIFR ceilings possible late and toward morning across much of the region (except far west) as the inversion becomes more shallow. Ceilings will slowly lift to MVFR by late Wednesday morning. Winds will be light from the southeast through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 95 77 98 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 75 91 75 93 / 0 0 0 10 Laredo 77 106 77 107 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 74 101 74 100 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 77 87 77 87 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 77 104 76 103 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 75 99 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 78 89 78 90 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ241>243. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM/75 LONG TERM....EMF/94 AVIATION...JM/75