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000
FXUS64 KCRP 280837
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
337 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Key Messages:

- Marginal risk of severe weather today (Victoria Crossroads) and
  Monday (all CWA).

- Coastal Flood Advisory and High risk of rip currents through
  this evening.

A strong shortwave trough will continue to transition from the
Central Plains into the Great Lakes region through the period with
some associated energy making its way across the state. A line of
showers and thunderstorms currently crossing the Edwards Plateau
is expected to extend southeastward through the day today into
our CWA leading to a medium chance (30-60%) of showers/thunderstorms.
Although the current activity is forecast to weaken as it drifts
southward into our area, there will still be enough instability
(SBCAPE over 2500 J/kg) and little capping at the surface for some
of these storms to become strong to severe at times. The main
hazards associated to any strong storm that does develop will be
damaging winds (DCAPE over 1000 J/kg) and hail. Convection is
expected to start across the northwestern tier of the CWA closer
to daybreak, and transition eastward reaching the Victoria
Crossroads by mid to late morning. Although CAMs are only showing
isolated convection over the Crossroads by the afternoon,
deterministic models are indicating a very unstable airmass and no
capping in place. SPC has maintained a Marginal risk of severe
weather that clips into Victoria County through tonight.

Convective chances will decrease overnight as we lose forcing,
with only a slight chance remaining across the east. However,
chances will increase again on Monday areawide mainly due to the
combination of enough available moisture (PWATs 1.5-1.7") and a
moderately unstable airmass in place (SBCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg). On
Monday the cap will also be weak to non, therefore SPC has
maintained the entire CWA under a Marginal Risk for severe
weather. Again, the main threats will be for damaging winds and
hail. But, having said that, models have been trending drier
probably due to not enough forcing.

Aside from all of that, there are still some coastal and marine
hazards that will persist today, including a Coastal Flood
Advisory and a High risk of rip currents. Conditions though are
expected to improve by later this evening, as winds weaken
offshore and the seas subside. Nonetheless, a Moderate risk of
rip currents will remain in effect across area beaches through
Monday evening.

Expect warm temperatures with highs in the low 80s to mid 90s
today and tomorrow, although tomorrow will be a degree or so
warmer. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Key Messages:

- Low chance of showers and thunderstorms expected this week

- Minor coastal flooding possible through midweek

A more zonal flow will develop Monday night and persist into the
week. Moisture and warm air will continue to stream into the area
with southeast flow which could lead to diurnal showers and
thunderstorms for Tuesday. A brief break in convection is still
expected Tuesday night and Wednesday as high pressure noses into the
area. A series of shortwaves will move across South Texas beginning
Wednesday evening , leading to a 15-30% chance of showers and
thunderstorms through the work week.

The persistent southeasterly flow will continue to help push long
period swell ashore through the middle of this week. Minor coastal
flooding and a high rip current risk will be possible through
Wednesday, when swell periods should diminish.

Temperatures will be warm through the upcoming week, with highs in
the mid 80s to upper 90s daily across South Texas. I hate to bring
it up this early, but it looks as though heat index values will
reach 100-105 across the Rio Grande Plains through early this week.
Some relief may be in sight as a weak cold front approaches the area
over the weekend. Model guidance isn`t giving us much hope for much
cooler conditions, but drier air may filter in as the cold front
fizzles out over or just north of the area leading to cooler
apparent temperatures. We will have to wait and see how this front
actually behaves.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

MVFR CIGs are spreading west with LRD and COT expected to lower
to MVFR between 06-09Z. VFR conditions are expected to resume for
COT and LRD by 20-22Z Sunday with MVFR conditions continuing
across the eastern areas through Sunday afternoon and evening.
There is a medium chance (30-50%) of showers and thunderstorms
moving into COT and LRD some time after 10-12Z, then moves east
toward ALI, CRP and VCT between 16-18Z and tapers by late
afternoon. The best chance of storms will be from COT to VCT with
less activity expected farther south away from the more favorable
conditions. Strong southeast winds this evening are expected to
decrease, but remain moderate with gusts up to 25kt remaining
possible overnight, especially for the CRP TAF site. Farther west,
winds have increased with gusts 25-30 knots, but are expected to
also decrease through 08-11Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 219 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Strong onshore flow with occasional gusts to 35 knots will be
possible through this morning. Seas will remain elevated through
Monday morning, therefore, the Small Craft Advisory will remain in
effect. Onshore flow becomes weak to moderate tonight, persisting
at these levels through the end of the week. There is a 15-40%
chance of showers and thunderstorms daily across the waters
through mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    87  75  89  75 /  30  10  30  20
Victoria          85  72  87  72 /  50  30  30  20
Laredo            94  73  95  75 /  30   0  20  10
Alice             88  73  91  73 /  40  10  30  20
Rockport          84  74  85  75 /  40  30  30  30
Cotulla           91  72  95  75 /  60   0  20  10
Kingsville        89  75  90  75 /  40  10  30  20
Navy Corpus       86  76  87  75 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ345-
     442-443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ231-232-236-
     237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANM/88
LONG TERM....LS/77
AVIATION...TE