514
FXUS64 KEPZ 100911
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
311 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

We will see one more day of near normal temperatures along with a
few thunderstorms, mainly north and east of Las Cruces. A sub-
tropical high pressure then builds in over the Borderland Tuesday
through Thursday. This will eliminate most any chance for rain and
induce near record temperatures. Thus dangerous heat conditions
likely from Wednesday into the coming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Weak upper low over NE Arizona continues to lift out to the east
and north over northern New Mexico along deformation zone. Dry
slot south of this low is now over the CWA. At the surface
numerous outflows are pushing west and south through the area,
generally increasing dewpoints back into 40s and lower 50s much of
the area east of the Cont Divide. Thus despite the dry-slot, a few
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, mainly from the
Gila/Black Range across Sierra County and over most of Otero and
Hudspeth Counties. Decent DCAPE values and large dewpoint
depressions once again point to strong wind gusts as the main
threat.

Sub-tropical high begins building over much of the Desert
Southwest Tuesday ahead of the next Pacific trough. Much of the
higher dewpoints will be eroded down from the west, though these
higher dewpoints could persist along the far eastern margins of
the CWA. Combined with a weak short wave tracking southeast over
the eastern CWA, a slight chance of a thunderstorm still on
Tuesday, mainly over the Sac Mtns. Temperatures will begin to rise
Tuesday, but should remain just below advisory criteria. The real
heat looks to develop Wednesday and likely last into at least the
weekend. Advisories/Warnings for much of the lowlands likely
during this period. Will let dayshift look once more at this
situation. GFS has been showing some outflow/storm possibilities
Thursday and a non-zero chance of slight cooling but for now will
not give this much play. Upper high does recede southward Friday
and Saturday as the Pacific trough lifts out over Colorado. Any
slight cooling aloft though not likely to effect the heat built up
near the surface. Thus expect near record high temperatures
Thursday and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

We have generally light winds across the region, but a few outflow
boundaries are wandering around which could give us some low end
gusty winds in the next few hours for KELP and KTCS. The gusty winds
will drop off after a few hours, but those low end gusty winds will
return Monday afternoon and stick around for a few hours. We have a
mix of clouds across the region this evening, but the general trend
should be for less and less clouds, so our ceilings should stay
unlimited not only tonight but through the day on Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Elevated to near-critical fire conditions to continue into this
weekend as dry airmass continues despite brief increase in
dewpoints this morning. A few mountain thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon. Strong gusty winds and some dry lightning also
possible with these storms. Fortunately non-thunderstorm winds
look to remain tame for most of the forecast period. Near record
high temperatures will develop by Thursday into the weekend. Will
have to watch Friday as upper level trough passes across the
area. Winds overall don`t look too significant but winds over the
Gila/Black Range will increase and we could see RFW conditions
develop over that zone.

Min RHs: Lowlands 6-12% through Saturday. Mountains-Gila 9-14%
through Saturday; Sacramentos 20-30% today and Tuesday decreasing
to 10-20% Wednesday through Saturday. Vent rates very good to
excellent through Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  99  73 103  76 /  10   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            93  64  96  68 /  10  10  10   0
Las Cruces               97  66 102  70 /  10   0   0   0
Alamogordo               93  62  98  67 /  20  10   0   0
Cloudcroft               70  48  75  48 /  40  10  20   0
Truth or Consequences    90  66  98  70 /  20  10  10   0
Silver City              88  60  91  63 /  10   0  10   0
Deming                   95  61 101  65 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                95  61  99  65 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       96  69 101  74 /  10   0   0   0
Dell City                95  62 100  64 /  20  10  10   0
Fort Hancock             99  64 103  67 /  10  10   0   0
Loma Linda               90  63  94  67 /  10  10  10   0
Fabens                   98  66 103  70 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             96  64 100  68 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           95  72 100  76 /  10  10  10   0
Jornada Range            94  61  99  64 /  10  10   0   0
Hatch                    95  61 101  65 /  10  10  10   0
Columbus                 95  66 100  70 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                93  64  98  70 /  20  10   0   0
Mayhill                  80  52  86  50 /  50  10  20   0
Mescalero                80  51  86  50 /  40  10  20   0
Timberon                 79  50  84  50 /  40  10  10   0
Winston                  83  55  91  57 /  30  10  10  10
Hillsboro                90  63  96  66 /  20   0  10   0
Spaceport                92  60  98  62 /  20  10   0   0
Lake Roberts             88  56  94  57 /  10   0  10   0
Hurley                   90  58  96  62 /  10   0   0   0
Cliff                    95  54 101  57 /  10   0   0   0
Mule Creek               90  51  95  53 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  89  61  95  65 /  10   0   0   0
Animas                   95  61 100  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  95  61  99  66 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           94  62  99  67 /   0   0   0  10
Cloverdale               89  62  95  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner