806
FXUS63 KFGF 120434
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1134 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible tomorrow afternoon
  in northwest Minnesota. Significant hail (2") and damaging
  wind gusts (up to 70 mph) are possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Increased POPS near the International Border for ND as we
continue to see isolated showers move across Towner, Cavalier,
and Pembina counties this evening. No lightning has been
detected as CAPE is low.

UPDATE
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

We are watching shower activity in the Turtle Mountains region
this evening and its prorogation eastward. HiRes guidance has
picked up on this trend and having it potentially continue
through the rest of the overnight period along and north of the
Highway 2 corridor. We will continue to monitor these showers as
MUCAPE ranges between 500-1000 J/kg. Otherwise, we bumped up
temperatures slightly in the southern Red River Valley for
tomorrow afternoon into the lower 90s as cloud coverage will be
limited.

UPDATE
Issued at 632 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

We are seeing mid level clouds moving into the Devils Lake
Basin this evening, with clear skies in the Red River Valley.
Winds are starting to slowly weaken this evening and should
diminish in intensity post sunset. Still looking for the
thunderstorm chances tomorrow afternoon and evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...Synopsis...

Surface analysis at 18z indicates the center of the low that
brought us rain over southern Manitoba and Ontario. A relatively
enhanced region of a stronger pressure gradient has developed on
the backside of this low as a result, and is giving us sustained
winds between 20-30 mph. Winds will diminish as this low
continues to exit the region through the day today, so headlines
are not likely (5% chance of Wind Advisory).

A progressive shortwave trough will sweep through zonal flow
aloft tomorrow afternoon, bringing the potential for severe
thunderstorm development. There are a myriad of uncertainties
outlined below, but at this point in time expect the potential
for severe thunderstorms in northwest Minnesota.

Upper air flow towards late week shifts to northwesterly as an
intensifying ridge sets in. This should keep us quiet at least
through Friday until southwesterly flow replaces it and gives
us increased chances for widespread rainfall. How much rain
falls is dependent on intensity and track of the system, of
which ensembles are significantly struggling to get a handle on.
At this point in time, NAEFS percentiles do have an enhanced
corridor of IVT in the 99th percentile across the northern
plains from South Dakota to SW Minnesota with diminishing
probabilities radially away. This gives us solid confidence in a
more widespread rain event but also the potential for more
focused moisture advection across the northern plains.

After this system, ensemble guidance falls apart and
predictability for impacts next week is low. There is a strong
signal for another wave to move through early next week,
although the potential range of outcomes is very wide and
predictability needs to increase to ascertain potential impacts.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...

A rather complex convective scenario is expected to develop
across the region tomorrow. In advance of a progressive
shortwave trough (centered over the Pacific Northwest per WV
satellite), a modest 850mb low level jet is expected to provide
meaningful moisture advection to the area overnight tonight into
tomorrow morning. Elevated convection is likely to develop with
this low level jet, but at this point in time the most likely
zone of this occurring is south of the area.

As we progress through the morning and early afternoon, strong
theta-e advection in advance of the surface low propagating
through the southern Canadian Prairie will create a surface
theta-e boundary. This will serve as the initiating boundary for
convection tomorrow afternoon. Hodographs along the initiating
boundary are effectively straight but have ample deep layer
shear (exceeding 50 knots thanks to a strong 250mb jet) to
facilitate supercell development. Both mean wind and Bunkers
right vectors are effectively parallel to the initiating
boundary so initial discrete mode should be anticipated. Within
supercells that remain discrete, strong CAPE within the hail
growth zone coupled with modest storm-relative flow will allow
for significant hail to develop. With strong vertical mixing
anticipated tomorrow as well, it is very likely we will see very
cold RFDs from any supercells so the potential for wind to 70
mph is also there.

With the cooler RFD potential and straight hodographs
facilitating splitting, there is the potential for upscale
growth/clustering to develop. If this does occur in our area,
expect the potential for significant hail to increase as updraft
width increases. An attendant stronger wind threat may develop
although confidence is low due to the potential for fast
developing surface inversions from outflow/RFD.

Lastly, the tornado threat tomorrow should remain fairly
limited. Very deep vertical mixing and drier profiles (LCLs
approaching 1500m) should make it difficult for a tornado threat
to arise. Additionally, streamwise vorticity in the lowest 1 km
is very limited except where guidance has a more zonal component
of the theta-e gradient in southern Manitoba. Here winds become
more backed at the surface, allowing for slightly better
streamwise vorticity. The potential for significant tornadoes should
be kept to a minimum thanks to very poor thermodynamics. A tornado
threat may arise in more north-central Minnesota but this will be
highly dependent upon storm-scale modification of the environment.
so there is a very low predictability horizon for this.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

VFR conditions prevail this evening and overnight, with a few
isolated showers north of DVL and remaining near the
International Border overnight. Winds have subsided and shifted
toward VRB or the south. This continues through the overnight
with LLWS appearing near sunrise and lasting through the early
morning as a frontal boundary shifts through. -RA chances
increase for FAR and GFK in the afternoon, with -TSRA chances
for TVF and BJI around 19-21z. Chances for showers and storms
through 02-04z. Winds will be breezy for GFK, DVL, FAR, and TVF
19z-02z, with gusts up to 25kts possible. Drier conditions
expected near the end of the TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Spender
DISCUSSION...Perroux
AVIATION...Spender