073
FXUS63 KFGF 051734
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1234 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this
  afternoon into the early evening, mainly across portions of
  the central and northern Red River Valley into adjacent areas
  of northwest and west central Minnesota.

- Winds will become very gusty from late morning through the
  early evening, with gusts to 50 mph along and west of the Red
  River Valley.

- Thursday, Friday, and Saturday afternoons all look to feature
  gusty northwest winds with a few showers.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Low chance of upgrading a few counties to a high wind warning
with a few gusts to 50 mph in upper devils lake basin though not
seeing the development of a sting jet or strong vort max moving
through and thus will continue to monitor conditions and react
as necessary.

UPDATE
Issued at 940 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Sparingly seeing these weak echos actually reach the ground so
tempered pops a bit with a blend of high res cams. Overall
forecast remains on track with low chances for severe this
afternoon which will depend on the location of the passing
trough. Currently looks to be further east into MN by the time
thermos recover enough for afternoon convection shortening the
potential window for convection in our area.

UPDATE
Issued at 559 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Seeing a few mid level echoes on radar early this morning, not
sure much is actually reaching the ground. However, went ahead
and added some isolated morning showers to the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...Synopsis...
There is more shortwave activity evident on water vapor imagery
early this morning over southeast Saskatchewan. Ensembles show
portions of this wave moving into northwest Minnesota by 18z or
so. Elongated 500/700mb low pressure will then set up from
southern Saskatchewan/southern Manitoba through the Great Lakes
through at least Saturday. Much less confidence enters the
forecast thereafter, in how this pattern may break down.

...Strong to severe thunderstorms today...
With morning sunshine and cold temperatures aloft, seeing about
500-1000J/kg of MLCAPE developing across northwest Minnesota
this afternoon. The upper jet will also be pushing into the FA
by later in the day. With very strong winds aloft, and steep mid
level lapse rates, any showers or storms that form have the
potential to mix these stronger winds to the surface. The new
SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook has portions of the central and
northern Valley into adjacent areas of northwest and west
central Minnesota in a marginal risk for severe weather, with
the main hazards being hail up to 1 inch and wind gusts up to 60
mph.

...Gusty winds today...
Unidirectional winds throughout the entire sounding are expected
today. 850mb winds by 00z Thu look to be about 35 knots along
and west of the Valley, and up to 40 across the Devils Lake
region. At 700mb, add another 5 to 10 knots to those values.
There is a decent surface pressure gradient and steady 850mb
cold advection. Think this is a good day to go with winds higher
than what the NBM shows, which will bring Wind Advisory criteria
into the Red River Valley as well. It will take a while before
the worst of the winds move in, which should be through the
afternoon into early evening.

...Thursday, Friday, and Saturday...
Overall the elongated low pressure across southern Canada to the
Great Lakes will take a while to break down, which means not
much change in the weather from Thursday through Saturday. The
upper jet continues to linger across the FA as well, holding on
the southern periphery of the low. Wind speeds may not be quite
as strong as today, but some areas could need a Wind Advisory
again Thursday. Some afternoon showers are also possible each
day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Likely a few thunderstorms in NW Minnesota this afternoon
affecting TVF and BJI. Winds 20-30 mph this afternoon gusting
35-40 mph, gusts dissipate overnight before returning tomorrow
afternoon though slightly weaker winds tomorrow. VFR conditions
for the period asides from periods of Thunder out east with
fuel alternate thresholds for winds in some locations.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>004-007-
     029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon/TT
DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...TT