621
FXUS65 KFGZ 060915
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
215 AM MST Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Hot temperatures will continue through the end of the
week, with daily chances for showers/thunderstorms across the
higher terrain through the weekend. Afternoon highs will gradually
cool Saturday and Sunday, before another warming trend returns
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...By no surprise, the Flagstaff Airport hit a record
temperature yesterday of 89 degrees, with the previous record
being 88 degrees set back in 2010. These hot/potentially record
breaking temperatures will continue through the end of the week.
As a result, an Excessive Heat Warning begins this morning (10 AM
MST) and continues through Friday evening (8 PM MST). Areas
included in this warning: Grand Canyon, Marble/Glen Canyons, and
the valleys of Yavapai County all below 4000`.

Although high-pressure is dominating the upper-levels of the
atmosphere across the West U.S., there is a low-pressure system
sitting off the southern California Baja coast. As the high begins
to shift eastward over the next few days, this low will help
create a south-southeast flow into Arizona. This pattern will
bring just enough moisture to our CWA to have slight chances for
showers/thunderstorms across the higher terrain today, and
becoming more focused over eastern Arizona Friday through Sunday.
With the anticipated daytime heating, and current lack of moisture
at the surface, storms that do build over the next few afternoons
will likely be on the drier side. This will leave the main threats
from storm development to be dry lightning and gusty winds.

As the high-pressure slowly weakens/progresses eastward over the
weekend, temperatures will slightly cool 5-10 degrees from the
afternoon highs forecast for Thursday and Friday. At the start of
next week, temperatures will once again climb 2-10 degrees above
normal. There will also be a none-zero chance of showers/storms
across eastern Arizona through mid-week, but overall, mostly dry
conditions look to return.


&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 06/06Z through Friday 07/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions expected. Slight chance for MVFR and gusty, erratic
winds near ISO SHRA/TSRA near a KGCN-KFLG-KJTC line after 18Z.
Light and variable winds, becoming W/SW around 10 kts after 18Z.

OUTLOOK...Friday 07/06Z through Sunday 09/06Z...Mainly VFR conditions.
ISO chance for MVFR and gusty, erratic winds in vicinity of KSOW/KJTC
each afternoon. Winds W/SW 10-15 kts each day, becoming light and
variable overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Daytime temperatures continue
to run 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Isolated, high-based convection
is possible today over much of the area, with the focus shifting
east on Friday. A very dry boundary layer means wetting rain is
unlikely. The main threats will be dry lightning and gusty winds.
Afternoon RH values remain below 15 percent. Winds generally light
and southerly today, from 5 to 15 mph. Winds increase and turn
southwesterly Friday, ranging from 10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 25
mph.

Saturday through Monday...Temperatures retreat to just a few degrees
above normal. Isolated, high-based convection remains possible each
day over the eastern zones, but conditions are dry. Afternoon RH
values from 10 to 20 percent each day, along with afternoon
southwest winds 10 to 20 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ this morning
to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Friday for AZZ005-006-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff