Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
665 FXUS64 KFWD 101656 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1156 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Today and Friday will be hot and muggy, with afternoon heat indices of 100-105. - Isolated thunderstorms (15-25% chance) will be possible across portions of East and Northeast Texas this afternoon and evening. - Unsettled weather returns this weekend, with scattered thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. Isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Tomorrow Night/ A positively tilted upper-level shortwave continues to slowly meander to the east, drifting towards the southern Mississippi River Valley. Weak forcing for ascent ahead of the trough axis will again bring the low potential for isolated thunderstorms (15-25% chance) across portions of East and Northeast Texas. This diurnally driven convection should wane with sunset. Otherwise, the rest of the region today, and the entire region tomorrow will see high pressure dominate, paving the way for mostly clear skies, highs in the mid-90s, and lows in the low to mid-70s. With afternoon dewpoints remaining in the 70s, primarily along and east of the I-35 corridor, peak heat indices today and tomorrow will range from 100-105. Darrah && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Saturday through Wednesday/ ...Saturday and Sunday... Medium range guidance, both deterministic and ensemble, continue to show weak upper-level troughing return to the Great Plains by this weekend. Weak synoptic scale forcing for ascent in conjunction with ample boundary layer moisture (dewpoints in the mid and upper 70s) will set the stage for daily scattered thunderstorms to develop across the area. High humidity, convection and cloud cover will all contribute to below normal temperatures, with most seeing highs in the upper-80s and lower-90s. At the surface, a weak stationary front is expected to extend from West Texas into South Kansas. Rain chances will generally be higher closer to this surface front, and generally decrease with eastward extent. Current guidance suggests precipitation chances of 40-50% west of the I-35 corridor, and 20-40% along and east of the I-35 corridor. While organized severe weather is not expected owing to the lack of shear across the region, ample instability will support a low- end hail and damaging wind risk with the strongest storms, particularly west of US-281 during the late evening/early overnight hours. In addition to the potential for stronger storms, PWAT values will continue to be exceptionally high across the region, with guidance continuing to resolve PWATs in the 2.0-2.5" range. This, and anticipated slow storm motions (also owing to weak surface boundaries and weak deep layer shear) will bring the potential once again for flooding, primarily across Central and North- Central Texas. ...Monday through Wednesday... Though storm chances will generally decrease heading into next week, there will still be the daily potential for diurnally driven isolated thunderstorms (20-30% chance) across much of North and Central Texas. This seems to be attributed to the signal for troughing across the Great Plains next week to weaken, or diminish altogether. This will also allow slightly warmer temperatures to build back into the region. Highs should be closer to normal, in the mid-90s. This in conjunction with surface dewpoints in the upper-60s and low-70s will keep afternoon heat indices in the 95-105 range. Darrah && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ Sparse coverage of thunderstorms (15-25%) is expected across East and Northeast Texas. Any convection that develops should remain east of TAF sites. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions and south- southwesterly winds at 10-15 knots to prevail at all TAF sites for the duration of the forecast period. Darrah && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 96 77 94 77 93 / 5 0 0 0 20 Waco 93 73 91 74 90 / 10 0 0 0 20 Paris 94 75 94 74 94 / 20 0 0 0 10 Denton 96 75 95 75 93 / 5 0 0 0 20 McKinney 96 76 95 76 93 / 20 0 0 0 20 Dallas 96 77 95 77 95 / 5 0 0 0 20 Terrell 95 75 94 74 93 / 20 0 0 0 20 Corsicana 95 75 94 76 94 / 20 0 0 0 30 Temple 94 73 92 74 91 / 5 0 5 0 30 Mineral Wells 97 73 94 74 92 / 0 0 0 0 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$