639
FXUS64 KFWD 291745
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1245 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today Through Thursday/

Showers and isolated storms have exited the region, and the
forecast has trended much drier for the remainder of the afternoon
and overnight period. The main exception will be the potential for
isolated showers and storms this afternoon and evening, generally
across Central Texas and portions of East/Southeast Texas. Severe
weather will be unlikely with this activity given lift will be
minimal in the absence of any substantial surface boundaries.
However, we can`t entirely rule out an isolated instance of
quarter size hail and/or damaging wind gusts if any overzealous
storms are able to develop.

Our attention then turns to tomorrow morning, as northwest flow
aloft will bring a complex of storms from the High Plains into
North Texas. Ahead of this system, some early morning showers and
perhaps a few storms may develop across the region. The complex
of storms should arrive at our northwestern border between 7-9 am
and will continue moving east/southeast into the afternoon, with
most of this activity remaining near and north of I-20.
Instability and deep layer shear will support the potential for
damaging wind gusts, with a lower threat for large hail. Weak low
level flow will keep the tornado threat low. Any discrete storms
that develop tomorrow, especially tomorrow afternoon, will have a
higher chance of producing large hail.

All showers and storms are expected to exit to the east mid to
late afternoon, but another storm system won`t be too far behind
(more on that in the long-term discussion below). Fortunately, the
cloud cover and rain will keep temperatures slightly below normal
tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 80s.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 318 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024/
/Thursday Night Onward/

Thunderstorms generated by a slow-moving shortwave over the
Plains will trek east across North Texas Thursday night, some of
which may pose a wind and hail threat. Activity should exit to the
east around or shortly after daybreak Friday. Additional storms
are expected to develop as the atmosphere destabilizes Friday
afternoon within the northwest flow on the back edge of the
aforementioned shortwave. It is uncertain exactly where these
storms will develop, as mesoscale boundaries may be the primary
focus for development. The most likely scenario at this time
looks like convection may initiate just northwest of the region
during peak heating, in the vicinity of a surface low associated
with a remnant front. These storms would likely grow upscale as
they work their way southeast through North Texas Friday evening.
Damaging winds would be the main threat if a good cold pool can
develop, with large hail also being possible. The tornado threat
would be low, but a spin-up tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

Northwest flow will remain overhead through the weekend as a mid
level ridge holds strong over Mexico. A weak disturbance aloft
will help ignite thunderstorms along the dryline Saturday
afternoon and evening. The dryline and convective initiation would
be well west of the region, likely somewhere near or west of a
line from Lubbock to San Angelo. These storms would not arrive
until around midnight across the western-most counties, and would
initially contain a threat for hail and damaging winds. Activity
would then weaken during the overnight hours as it crosses the
I-35 corridor. Storms may fall apart Sunday morning with the loss
of the low level jet, but additional storms would then be
possible east of I-35 Sunday afternoon in the vicinity of
residual outflow produced by the overnight activity. The Sunday
convection would dissipate fairly quickly Sunday night as a strong
capping inversion develops. A few storms may be capable of
downburst winds and hail, but the overall severe threat appears
fairly low at this time.

After a brief lull, another round of thunderstorms looks likely
Monday afternoon and evening as the next shortwave dives southeast
across the Southern Plains. By this point we will be into the
first week of June, and it is not too surprising that the
northwest flow pattern will continue to be unsettled through much
of next week with an MCS or two likely surging south across the
Red River. Will fine tune the timing and projected intensity of
these systems this weekend or early next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the remainder of the day along with
southeast winds near 10 knots or less. Isolated storms may develop
across Central Texas, so a brief window of VCTS has been included
in the KACT TAF late this afternoon. However, it`s possible this
activity will remain well south or east of the airport.

MVFR ceilings are expected early Thursday morning with scattered
showers developing across the region. A complex of storms will
approach from the northwest early in the morning, arriving in D10
around 15Z or so. Damaging wind gusts will be the main concern
with this activity, with a lesser threat for large hail.
Additional scattered storms are expected to develop across Central
Texas throughout the day, and the hail threat may be slightly
higher with this activity. Showers and storms should end from west
to east between 18-20Z, with VFR ceilings gradually scattering out
through the remainder of the afternoon. Outside of any storms,
winds will remain out of the southeast around 10-12 knots or less.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    84  71  84  71  82 /  10  20  70  50  60
Waco                84  71  82  71  84 /  30  20  40  40  70
Paris               81  67  79  67  78 /  10  10  70  40  70
Denton              82  70  83  68  81 /  10  20  70  60  70
McKinney            82  70  82  68  79 /  10  20  70  50  70
Dallas              84  71  84  70  82 /  10  20  70  50  60
Terrell             83  68  82  69  81 /  20  20  70  50  70
Corsicana           85  69  84  73  84 /  30  20  60  40  70
Temple              84  71  84  72  85 /  30  20  40  40  60
Mineral Wells       82  68  84  69  82 /  10  20  70  60  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$