Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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028
FXUS64 KFWD 220537
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1137 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.AVIATION...
Other than a few lingering showers, quiet weather is expected
through sunrise with scattered to broken middle and upper level
clouds. A southwest to west wind will steadily increase through
the night as the pressure gradient tightens in response to surface
low pressure moving across southwest Oklahoma. The wind will turn
to the northwest shortly after sunrise Sunday with the passage of
a Pacific cold front. Wind speeds through the day Sunday will
range from 18 to 24 knots sustained with gusts around 35 knots.
Wind speeds will decrease after sunset Sunday but remain in the 13
to 17 knot range. These winds will result in some crosswind issues
on North/South runways.

The passage of the cold front will also bring some MVFR ceilings
to the Metroplex terminals Sunday morning but all low clouds will
scatter before midday.

79

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/
A surface low that was over the Oklahoma Panhandle at 3 PM
continues to deepen this afternoon in response to an approaching
upper level low. The surface and upper level lows will move east
or east-southeast across southern Oklahoma tonight and into
Arkansas by late Sunday morning. The tightening pressure gradient
will result in gusty southwest to west winds across the western-
most parts of the forecast area tonight. Thus, a Wind Advisory is
in effect through 6 PM Sunday for areas along and west of a Graham
to Hamilton to Lampasas. As a Pacific cold front moves through
late tonight and Sunday morning, winds will shift to the
northwest. Expect northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph across all of
the forecast area on Sunday and some gusts to 40 mph are likely. A
Wind Advisory will be needed for all of the forecast area for
Sunday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have already developed west
of the I-35 corridor. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms
to move east across the region through this evening. Forecast
soundings show an "inverted-V" profile which is indicative of the
potential for strong gusty winds with these showers and
thunderstorms. Storms should be mostly sub-severe with some gusts
to around 50 mph but will keep an eye on them. Rain chances will
end before midnight across all but areas north of a Jacksboro to
Emory line. Lows tonight will be in the 40s to lower 50s and highs
Sunday will be mostly in the 60s.

Winds speeds will drop off nicely after sunset Sunday and will
become light westerly by daybreak Monday. With clear skies, lows
Monday morning will range from the mid 30s to lower 40s. As a
surface high moves off the east, southerly winds will return
Monday and a warm up will begin. Highs Monday will be in the lower
60s northeast to lower 70s southwest. Lows Monday night will be
in the 40s to around 50 and highs Tuesday will be in the 70s.

Another cold front will move through the region Tuesday night.
This system will move through dry but will bring temperatures down
to near seasonal normals for the rest of the work week. Lows
Tuesday night will be in the mid 30s northwest to upper 40s
southeast. Lows will be mostly in the 30s Wednesday night through
Friday night. Highs will be in the 50s to lower 60s Wednesday and
mostly in the 50s Thursday and Friday.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    49  63  42  67  49 /  20  10   0   0   0
Waco                49  65  40  70  48 /  30   5   0   0   0
Paris               46  60  38  62  44 /  40  20   0   0   0
Denton              46  62  39  66  46 /  20  10   0   0   0
McKinney            46  61  40  64  46 /  30  10   0   0   0
Dallas              50  63  43  67  50 /  20  10   0   0   0
Terrell             47  63  41  65  48 /  30  10   0   0   0
Corsicana           49  65  42  68  50 /  30  10   0   0   0
Temple              50  65  40  71  49 /  30   5   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       47  62  37  71  47 /  20   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for TXZ100-115-129-141>143-
156.

&&

$$

79/25



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