Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 260000
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
600 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH PERIOD. WINDS BACK SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN VEER BACK TO
THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING BEHIND A WEAK DRY FRONT. 84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM MISSOURI TO
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE
SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE STATE. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST
OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING...AND THIS REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
COOL FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...REINFORCING THE COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE. PLEASANT DAYS AND CLEAR CHILLY NIGHTS WILL BE THE RESULTING
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ALOFT FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND....WITH A BROAD FLAT RIDGE IN PLACE OVERHEAD AND A DEEP
UPPER LOW SLOWLY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THE APPROACHING LOW
WILL INDUCE LEE ROCKIES SURFACE TROUGHING ON SATURDAY. NORTH TEXAS
WILL SIT BETWEEN THE LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A SURFACE RIDGE TO
THE EAST...CREATING GOOD RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. WE LEANED TOWARDS THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO BROAD RIDGING ALOFT AND
SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE. MEANWHILE...AN ARCTIC FRONT WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME DISLODGED BY A SHORTWAVE OVER CANADA LATER THIS
WEEK WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE PUSH OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE HINDERED BY RETURN FLOW AT
THE SURFACE...IMPEDING THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS SEEM TO INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE RED RIVER INTO NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES ON MONDAY...AND
POSSIBLY BECOME STATIONARY BRIEFLY BEFORE RETREATING TO THE NORTH
IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST.

LOW POPS WILL BE CARRIED OVER EASTERN COUNTIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK WHERE DECENT MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHEN
THE WEST COAST UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
LATEST ECMWF INDICATES A DEEPER SYSTEM...WITH BETTER INSTABILITY
AND MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS...WHICH
INDICATES A MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. EITHER WAY...WE WILL
LIKELY SEE DECENT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN TO THE REGION
JUST BEYOND THE DAY 7 PERIOD IN THE FORECAST...OR AROUND WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  40  64  38  61  43 /   5   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              39  68  36  63  40 /   5   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             36  63  34  58  38 /   5   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            37  64  32  61  39 /   5   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          36  64  34  60  39 /   5   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            41  64  39  61  44 /   5   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           39  64  36  61  38 /   5   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         40  66  37  63  41 /   5   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            38  69  37  64  41 /   5   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     35  63  32  62  39 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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