Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 230930
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS YESTERDAY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
AREA ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. ALL OF THE RAINFALL HAS MOVED EAST OF
NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH SOME REMNANT CLOUD COVER PERSISTING.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO OCCURRING IN AREAS WHERE WINDS HAVE GONE
CALM AND WHERE THERE IS A LACK OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. OTHERWISE...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WHICH IS
MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE
HAS ALREADY INDUCED A LEE SIDE CYCLONE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. THIS IS IMPORTANT FOR TODAYS WEATHER IN NORTH TEXAS
BECAUSE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. AS IT DOES...SURFACE PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...RESULTING IN A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE WESTERLY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
NORTH TEXAS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONCERN TODAY WILL BE EXACTLY
HOW HIGH THE WINDS GET. WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...ANY DEEP MIXING COULD RESULT IN GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH. THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THIS MIGHT HAPPEN...FORECASTING WINDS OF 30G40KT AT DFW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD CAUSE SOME ISSUES AT AREA AIRPORTS IF IT
PANS OUT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE
ON WINDS...SO WILL TONE THINGS DOWN JUST A BIT. THINKING IS THAT
THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS IS WHEN LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST AND THERE
IS A GOOD PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST
WILL SHOW GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH BUT THIS SHOULD BE OF SHORT
DURATION AS A SURFACE INVERSION STARTS TO DEVELOP AFTER DARK. WE
WILL HAVE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS
STARTING AT 2 PM AND CONTINUING UNTIL 8 PM.

WITH WESTERLY WINDS INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO WARM CONSIDERABLY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WILL HAVE
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS. TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE RED RIVER.

COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING...SO HIGHS
ON MONDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER. A SECONDARY FRONT MOVES
IN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 60 DEGREES WHICH IS A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DRY WEEK AHEAD
AND THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT WE WILL WARM UP RATHER NICELY BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES THE WESTERN U.S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO ABOUT 700MB.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. GFS MOS NUMBERS SHOW HIGHS REACHING THE MID 70S
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WE WONT GO QUITE THAT WARM YET BUT WILL
SHOW HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR THANKSGIVING INTO FRIDAY.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1214 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/
PRIMARY CONCERN IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS/VSBY THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND STRONG CROSSWINDS SUNDAY.

CIGS/VSBY TONIGHT...
RAIN HAS ENDED AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE REGION RIGHT
NOW. THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED WHICH RAISES CONCERN
THAT FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
DRYING OCCURS ALOFT AND ENHANCES RADIATIONAL COOLING ABOVE THE
MOIST LAYER. WILL BRING MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN AT 9Z/3AM WITH A TEMPO
FOR IFR CIGS. HOWEVER WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST...IT SHOULD PREVENT DENSE FOG FROM FORMING. THE SHALLOW
MOISTURE MEANS THAT ANY CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE. VFR AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.

CROSSWINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH WINDS. THUS WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT
FOR LAPSE RATES TO BECOME STEEP ENOUGH FOR THIS TRANSFER TO OCCUR.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE NEARLY DRY
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES NOT OCCURRING UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN A SHOT OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH WITH A COLD
FRONT. THUS THE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER
22Z/4PM AND PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN THEY SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 2Z/8PM. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD ALSO BE
FROM ABOUT 300 DEGREES WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FULL USE OF RUNWAYS 31R/L AND AT LEAST SOME USE OF THE N-S
RUNWAYS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONGEST WITH THE WINDS AND
LAMP GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SUSTAINED 32G41KT AT 0Z. SINCE ALL OF
THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS LOWER THAN THIS...HAVE INSTEAD FORECAST
24G34KT...BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY...HAVE
LOWERED WIND SPEEDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TO 17KT DUE TO LESS
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MORE LIMITED MIXING. WIND DIRECTION DURING
THIS TIME WILL BE W/SW BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE JUST LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT FLOW DISRUPTION DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  41  63  39  62 /   5   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              77  43  64  35  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             74  40  59  34  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            75  38  61  35  60 /   5   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          75  38  61  34  60 /   5   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            77  41  63  39  62 /   5   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           74  41  62  35  62 /   5   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         77  42  64  37  63 /   5   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            78  41  64  35  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  37  62  35  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>120-129>132-141.

&&

$$





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