Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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468
FXUS64 KFWD 232020
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
320 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The current upper level pattern is defined mainly by an upper
level ridge near the MS Valley and an upper trough over the Four-
Corners region. At the surface, a strengthening lee-side cyclone
will keep the tight pressure gradient going, and the resulting
strong south winds should persist well into the evening. The wind
advisory will remain valid through 06Z tonight, and the evening
and overnight shifts can take a look at the possibility of
issuing another advisory if conditions look right tomorrow. At
this time, things look a little too borderline to issue this
early.

The strong south winds are advecting moisture northward across the
forecast area in advance of the storm system to our west. Surface
heating and strong dynamic forcing will generate convection later this
afternoon over the TX Panhandle and West-Central Texas. Activity
will likely be focused along a dryline, which will be forced
eastward as the upper trough moves east. Storms may initially
become severe, but will likely lose some of their intensity while
entering our west counties due to the lack of any appreciable
instability (mainly the result of the time of day). Still, some
gusty winds may occur (probably not any gustier than our Wind
Advisory winds from today) along with some occasional cloud to
ground lightning.

Showers and storms will cross the I-35 corridor pretty close to
Friday morning rush hour, and then begin to intensify while
moving into a more favorable convective environment across the
eastern third of the area. Damaging winds and hail will be the
primary threat Friday afternoon, mainly for areas along and east
of I-45/HWY 75.

Precipitation will work its way east of the forecast area Friday
evening, with cooler and drier air spreading in behind the dryline
and Pacific cold front. The primary concern across the western
portion of the forecast area will again be fire danger, which
will be near critical levels due to the warm, dry and windy
conditions. The Fire Weather Watch has been expanded to include
areas generally along and west of a line from Gainesville to
Granbury to Comanche. If conditions continue to look ideal for
rapidly spreading wildfires, a Red Flag Warning may eventually be
issued.

A fast-moving shortwave trough will cross the Southern Plains on
Sunday, bringing a quick round of convection to parts of the
region. The best mid-level lapse rates and moisture will exist
over the northeastern counties, which is where POPs will be
highest. Rain chances will be mainly Sunday Night, and will
decrease the farther southwest you go.

A brief period of shortwave ridging aloft will bring nice weather
to the area late Monday and Tuesday. A slower-moving and deeper
upper low is then progged to cross the Desert Southwest Wednesday
and into West-Central Texas Wednesday night. This system has the
potential to bring some much needed and more widespread rainfall
as it taps into deep Gulf moisture. Depending on how much
instability and shear we can muster, there may also be some
windows for severe weather. But it`s still a bit too early to rely
on convective parameters which may change from model run to model
run. Either way it looks like we are in for a fairly active and
progressive pattern for the next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1244 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/
VFR through this evening with only a few CU expected this
afternoon. A deep surface low centered over eastern Colorado will
result in a strong and gusty south wind through the afternoon at
speeds between 20 and 25 knots sustained along with gusts around
30 knots. The wind will decrease a bit after sunset but remain
gusty.

MVFR ceilings will develop overnight ahead of an approaching low
pressure system. The low ceilings should reach Waco around 06Z and
the Metroplex TAF sites around 08Z.

An upper level low and associated dryline will move east across
the state tonight and reach the Interstate 35 corridor between 12
and 16Z. MVFR ceilings will lift and scatter quickly behind the
dryline. A few showers will accompany the dryline, but the
atmosphere should be sufficiently capped to limit/prevent
thunderstorm development until later in the day Friday. By the
time storms do develop, the dryline will be east of the TAF sites
and will only have impacts to the eastern cornerposts.

VFR conditions are expected from mid morning Friday through Friday
afternoon with a southwest wind between 15 and 20 knots along with
some higher gusts.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    63  81  55  76  55 /  30  50   5   0   0
Waco                65  80  52  78  54 /  30  60   5   0   0
Paris               61  72  52  72  51 /  10  70  20   5   0
Denton              63  81  51  75  52 /  40  40   5   0   0
McKinney            64  76  52  73  51 /  30  60   5   0   0
Dallas              65  79  55  75  55 /  30  60   5   0   0
Terrell             63  74  53  74  53 /  20  60  10   0   0
Corsicana           64  74  55  75  54 /  20  70  10   0   0
Temple              63  79  52  79  55 /  30  60   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       59  82  49  75  53 /  40  20   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon
for TXZ091-092-100>102-115>117-129>131-141.

Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for TXZ091>094-100>104-
115>120-129>134-141>145-156>160-174.

&&

$$

79/30



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