Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 281822
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1222 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
FORECAST PERIOD. THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW MORNING IS THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN.

THE MORNING FWD WEATHER BALLOON ONCE AGAIN OBSERVED A DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. DRY AIR IN PLACE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON EVEN THOUGH A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE DFW AREA AROUND 12Z...AND CONTINUE SOUTH ACROSS
WACO BY 15Z. WINDS WILL LIKELY VEER OUT OF THE WEST FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY CROSSWIND ISSUES FROM
IMPACTING AREA AIRPORTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY AT 10 TO 15
KTS BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW...AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.UPDATE...

THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR A WARM AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE
REGION IS STILL ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR
THE UPDATE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S. WACO WILL COME VERY CLOSE TO AND POSSIBLY TIE THEIR
RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY OF 81 DEGREES.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...RADAR DATA FROM KFWS AND KGRK MAY BE UNAVAILABLE
AT TIMES TODAY AS TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO TROUBLESHOOT A
COMMUNICATION ISSUE.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WE ARE
FORECASTING A HIGH OF 81 DEGREES AT WACO WHICH IF IT HAPPENS WILL
TIE THE RECORD HIGH FOR JANUARY 28TH SET IN 1970 AND 2013. WE ARE
ALSO FORECASTING A HIGH OF 81 DEGREES AT DFW WHICH IS 4 DEGREES
SHORT OF THEIR RECORD OF 85 DEGREES SET IN 1903.

A SHORTWAVE THAT ACCORDING TO SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS
OVER NORTHWESTERN WYOMING AS OF 0815Z...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AT IT
DOES...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON...TO NEAR A PARIS TO DFW TO COMANCHE LINE BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY....AND THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 25 MPH AS
THE FRONT PASSES. THURSDAY MORNING/S LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S WHICH IS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY LITTLE DIURNAL
CHANGE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE
THE FRONT WILL NOT PASS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON SOME LOWER 70S SHOULD
BE REACHED.

WE WILL SEE CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES...SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
BAJA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA CANADA ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...RAIN CHANCES WILL END ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. WITH CLEARING
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE BAJA LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS MEXICO AND OPEN UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO AND FAR SOUTH TEXAS. THUS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE DRY FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  62  39  53  41 /   0   5   5  10  40
WACO, TX              49  69  40  55  43 /   0   5   5  10  40
PARIS, TX             50  62  35  53  38 /   0   5   5  10  20
DENTON, TX            48  61  36  53  40 /   0   5   5  10  40
MCKINNEY, TX          50  62  37  53  39 /   0   5   5  10  30
DALLAS, TX            51  62  40  53  42 /   0   5   5  10  40
TERRELL, TX           51  64  38  54  41 /   0   5   5  10  30
CORSICANA, TX         51  68  40  55  42 /   0   5   5  10  30
TEMPLE, TX            50  70  42  56  45 /   0   5   5  10  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     49  62  36  52  41 /   0   5   5  20  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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