Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 220004
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
604 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...

CONCERNS THIS TAF CYCLE...CIGS AND WIND SHIFT

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDDAY MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
BENEATH AN INVERSION. ACCORDING TO THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING...THIS INVERSION
LAYER WAS BETWEEN 4000 AND 6000 FT...WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE
ABOVE SAID INVERSION. ADDITIONALLY...THE CLEARING LINE TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT INTO THE DFW OR ACT TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM MOISTURE INTO THE AREA UNTIL FROPA...WHICH IS
EXPECTED BY MID-AFTERNOON ON MONDAY IN THE DFW METRO AND BY EARLY
EVENING FOR WACO. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT IFR CIGS AND VSBY
OVERNIGHT...BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 10 AND 15
KTS...WHICH WOULD HINDER SUCH DEVELOPMENT. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO
THE FORECAST AFTER 06Z ON TUESDAY...BUT IS CURRENTLY BEYOND THIS
TAF PERIOD.

AJS

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AS TWO VIGOROUS LARGE-SCALE
TROUGHS AFFECT THE REGION. APPRECIABLE RAINFALL...HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HARD TO COME BY.

IN THE NEAR-TERM...THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD FIELD OVER MOST OF OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS HAS PARTIALLY ERODED ALONG ITS WESTERN
FLANKS TODAY. THIS GRADUAL WEST TO EAST CLEARING TREND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...PERHAPS APPROACHING I-35
BEFORE CALLING IT A NIGHT. WHERE CLEARING DOES OCCUR AROUND
SUNSET...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...BUT THINK
SURFACE WINDS MAY STAY UP ENOUGH TO LIMIT AREAL EXTENT AND
INTENSITY. VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AND DRY
ADVECTION ON MONDAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MIX OUT MOST OF THE
REST OF THE STRATO-CU FIELD...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE MUCH OF
THE DAY (ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35) TO ACCOMPLISH THIS TASK. HIGHER
THICKNESSES AND SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE (THRU INCREASED CIRRUS AND
RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS) SHOULD ENABLE TEMPERATURES TO FINALLY
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S EVERYWHERE.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST...AND THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK...WILL BE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR
INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL ALSO ROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. ALL MODELS...AND NOTABLY
THE EUROPEAN AND TTU WRF...EVOLVE ENOUGH UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND
MOISTURE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. MUCH OF
THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE CONFINED ALONG/SOUTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF
I-35...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT SCATTERED POPS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE
IN NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST OF THE RAIN THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD EXIT
THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER STEADY WARMUP SHOULD OCCUR ON THE HEELS OF THE TUESDAY
SYSTEM...WITH CHRISTMAS STILL LOOKING LIKE A WARM...BREEZY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. ANOTHER LONG-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD SET UP SHOP BY
NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER...BRINGING ANOTHER FRONT AND A NEW ROUND OF
NORMAL TO SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS.

BRADSHAW

66/25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  47  66  45  51  35 /  10   5  30  30   5
WACO, TX              48  69  46  52  34 /   5   5  20  30   5
PARIS, TX             46  61  45  50  34 /  10  10  30  40  10
DENTON, TX            46  65  42  49  34 /  10   5  30  30   5
MCKINNEY, TX          46  65  43  49  34 /  10   5  30  30   5
DALLAS, TX            48  66  46  51  36 /  10   5  30  30   5
TERRELL, TX           48  65  46  51  35 /  10  10  30  30   5
CORSICANA, TX         49  67  47  52  35 /  10   5  20  30   5
TEMPLE, TX            47  70  46  52  34 /  10   5  10  20   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     44  67  41  51  33 /   5   5  30  30   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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