Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 230149 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
849 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS INTO AND OVER THE REGION AS IT MOVES EAST
TONIGHT. THUS...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL SUFFICE
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO SEEM REASONABLE
CONSIDERING SOME HIGH CLOUDS...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND DEWPOINTS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES TO THE MID
60S OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

HAVE UPDATED THE HOURLY GRIDS AND SENT THEM OUT. WILL LEAVE THE
WRITTEN FORECAST AS IS.     75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 615 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE
VALID FORECAST PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...COMBINED WITH A LONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS TO THE WEST...WILL KEEP EASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST NORTH
OF EAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...BEFORE VEERING A BIT TO THE
SOUTH OF DUE EAST AFTER A FEW HOURS OF HEATING TOMORROW.

EASTERLY WINDS ARE ACTUALLY QUITE RARE FOR THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. HOWEVER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY OUT OF THE EAST FOR A FEW DAYS UNDER
THIS RELATIVELY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN. AT ANY RATE...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH NO RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.     CAVANAUGH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAS NOW MOVED THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AND
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR
INTO THE REGION. JUST A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING TODAY WITHIN THE AXIS OF
HIGHER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AND MOVE OUT OF THE CWA BY SUNSET.

THE DRY AIR...LIGHT WINDS...AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES MEANS THAT
THERE WILL BE LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 80S...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BENEFIT FROM GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S.    TR.92

&&

.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED OVER THE ROCKIES AND A WEAK
CUTOFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE OVER TEXAS AND ONLY MODEST MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S. DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE MIDDLE TO LOWER 50S
DURING THE AFTERNOONS WILL RESULT IN PLEASANT CONDITIONS.

BY SATURDAY EVENING EXTENDED MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW A WEAK LOW LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO OFF THE COAST OF LA.
THIS DISTURBANCE MAY USHER IN SOME MOISTURE OVER EASTERN TEXAS...SO
HAVE INCREASED DEWPOINTS AND CLOUDS PRIMARILY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES FOR THE WEEKEND. THE GFS BRINGS THIS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER
FARTHER WESTWARD WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT EAST OF THE CWA. DUE TO
THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING...HAVE KEPT THE
FCST DRY FOR NOW.    STALLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  62  85  61  87  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              60  87  58  88  60 /   5   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             58  82  55  83  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            57  84  57  87  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          56  83  54  84  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            63  85  61  87  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           58  84  57  86  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         60  85  58  86  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            62  87  59  87  60 /   5   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     60  85  58  86  58 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /75




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