Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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289
FXUS64 KFWD 010439 AAC
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1139 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through 12z Tuesday with mostly clear
skies. As a strong surface low that was over extreme northwestern
Missouri as of 04z Monday moves northeast, west winds at 5 to 10
knots will back around to the southwest by late Monday morning and
then come around to the east by 00z Tuesday.

58

&&

.UPDATE...
Sunday was quite a windy day across North Texas with wind gusts
of 40 mph or greater common across areas along and northwest of a
line from Cisco to Waxahachie to Sherman. Winds gusted over 50 mph
at Breckenridge (54 mph) and Mineral Wells (53 mph). Wind speeds
started to decrease as sunset approached. Thus, the Wind Advisory
was allowed to expire at 8 PM CDT. With clear skies and wind
speeds decreasing to 5 to 10 mph overnight, temperatures will fall
mostly into the 40s...though some spots across the west may reach
the upper 30s.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/
Much quieter weather across North Texas this evening with the
exception of strong westerly winds. The powerful upper low is
located across the Southern Plains with 40-50 kt of westerly mid
level flow, much of this mixing down to the surface. Over the last
few hours there have been numerous wind gusts in excess of 40 mph
including a 58 mph gust at Wichita Falls. The winds are expected
to diminish later this evening as the upper low moves off to the
northeast and the current wind advisory will be allowed to expire.

There is some remnant mid level cloud cover associated with
moisture wrapping around the back side of the upper low. This
cloud deck is primarily across the northern two rows of counties
up to the Red River. Clouds are expected to thin later tonight
with the departure of the upper low. It will be a cool night
across North Texas with lows dropping into the lower 40s in many
areas. If winds can diminish completely in outlying rural areas,
we may see some upper 30s.

Tomorrow looks like a nice day across the region with light
southerly flow returning and warmer temperatures expected under
sunny skies. Highs areawide should climb into the upper 70s and
lower 80s.

On Tuesday, the upper pattern will amplify just off the west coast
of the U.S. allowing a trough to deepen over the Rockies. At the
surface, pressures are expected to fall across the Texas Panhandle
allowing southerly flow to strengthen across our area and
transporting moisture northward.

On Wednesday a warm front will spread northward ahead of the upper
trough which is expected to swing right across North Texas. This
should allow at least parts of the region to become unstable by
midday. As the upper trough progresses eastward, another strong
cold front is expected to swing through North Texas. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to accompany the front and
much of North Texas should see at least some precipitation during
the day on Wednesday. As of right now the threat for severe
weather appears pretty low, although lapse rates will be steep to
at least be concerned with a hail threat. Precipitation should end
from north to south rather quickly Wednesday evening.

Beyond Wednesday, the weather looks pretty quiet through next
weekend with cooler temperatures behind the cold front on
Thursday. Highs will generally be in the 70s and lower 80s
through the weekend with little chance for precipitation.

Dunn



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    46  79  59  84  66 /   0   0   0   0  20
Waco                45  83  57  85  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
Paris               45  73  54  81  61 /   0   0   0   0  20
Denton              42  77  54  83  63 /   0   0   0   0  20
McKinney            44  76  55  83  64 /   0   0   0   0  20
Dallas              47  80  61  85  68 /   0   0   0   0  20
Terrell             46  77  56  83  62 /   0   0   0   0  20
Corsicana           47  80  58  85  64 /   0   0   0   0  20
Temple              47  83  58  86  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
Mineral Wells       40  81  52  86  63 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

58/24



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