Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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793 FXUS64 KFWD 281653 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1153 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /This afternoon through Wednesday/ A complex of severe storms that moved through North Texas early this morning continues to push into Central and East Texas at this time. A large area of lighter rain and embedded, non-severe storms will gradually clear from northwest to southeast through early afternoon, leaving many areas rain-free this afternoon and evening. However, we will maintain some low PoPs (10%-30%) pretty much everywhere to account for lingering moisture, stray outflows, and some afternoon heating. The better storm chances will arrive across the western counties this evening with storms moving off the dryline. TTU WRF and HRRR are in decent agreement on storms timing with an organized line reaching the I-35 corridor around midnight and exiting into East Texas by sunrise. This solution seems reasonable and we will based our forecast around it. The good news is that the atmosphere behind the Wednesday morning storms should be very worked over, so we will keep storm chances low on Wednesday for most areas. High temperatures today will be very tricky since rain-cooled outflow has knocked temps into the 60s in most locations. There will be afternoon sun in many spots so we should recover at least into the 70s to the lower 80s. Lows tonight will fall into the middle and upper 60s behind the overnight complex of storms. Wednesday temperatures should be slightly higher than today due to a bit more daytime sun. 79 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 312 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ Update: The forecast trends discussed below generally remain on track, therefore no significant changes were made to the previous forecast. The first in a series of weak shortwaves/perturbations embedded in the W/NW flow aloft will shift over a High Plains dryline on Tuesday. The resulting thunderstorm complex will carry primarily a damaging wind threat as these storms progress east/southeast into our area during the late afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday. There will also be a threat for isolated instances of large hail, particularly south I-20 and west of I-35. This repetitive pattern of passing disturbances and daily storm chances will continue through the end of the week. Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall will likely lead to an increasing flood threat, especially given vulnerable soils due to recent rainfall. This unsettled pattern is likely to continue through the upcoming weekend as the weakening upper ridge shifts to the east late week. In its wake, a series of shortwave troughs riding around the upper low over the Gulf of Alaska will eject across the northern Rockies keeping our pattern somewhat amplified. 12 Previous Discussion: /Tuesday Evening and Beyond/ An active northwest flow pattern will set up over North and Central Texas by midweek as the region becomes sandwiched between a developing ridge over portions of the Desert Southwest/northern Mexico and troughing over the Great Lakes region. An initial shortwave perturbation looks to shift over a sharpening dryline late Tuesday afternoon/evening, initiating isolated to scattered convection over portions of West Texas and the Big Country. This activity will likely develop initially as supercells before growing upscale into a cluster of cells or possibly an MCS. With a northwesterly mean cloud-layer wind and a 25-35 southeasterly LLJ, this complex of thunderstorms will rapidly shift southeast toward our forecast area late Tuesday evening into the overnight. Where the initial convection occurs will play a large part in determining where this complex tracks Tuesday evening/night. However, there are several signals that our western Central Texas counties could witness the brunt of this complex`s impact. These convective systems tend to track along instability gradients, and most guidance right now places that SBCAPE gradient/weak, stalled frontal boundary generally along/south of the I-20 corridor Tuesday night. This track over western Central Texas and the Hill Country may also be reinforced by outflow from thunderstorms near the Red River Valley earlier in the day. Damaging wind gusts along the leading edge of this complex and isolated hail will be the primary hazards. Latest high-resolution guidance currently places an area along/southwest of a Breckenridge- Hillsboro line in the track of this potentially severe line of storms. The portion of this complex north of the instability gradient will likely be sub-severe with a lack of surface-based instability present. PWATs approaching 1.9-2.1" and warm cloud depths greater than 15,000ft will make these thunderstorms very efficient rainfall producers and several locations beneath these storms could pick up a quick 2-3" of rain. Continue to monitor the forecast over the next couple of days as we further refine location and timing details. This active pattern will continue through the rest of the work week with daily chances for thunderstorms over portions of North and Central Texas through at least Saturday. Coverage Wednesday may be more isolated, but the next chance for more widespread rainfall looks to arrive late Thursday into Friday as another compact shortwave progresses overhead through the northwesterly flow aloft and the aforementioned stalled frontal boundary lifts north toward the Red River enveloping most of the region in moderate surface-based instability. Severe weather will be possible at times. Additionally, multiple rounds of heavy rainfall will increase the flooding threat, especially over already saturated areas. Otherwise, temperatures will be slightly tempered by clouds and precipitation with widespread afternoon highs in the 80s and low 90s and overnight lows in the mid-60s to low 70s. Langfeld && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFS/ The complex of severe storms that blow through the TAF sites this morning will continue to exit to the east and southeast. Very strong wake low winds remain across the Metroplex TAF sites but they will likely decrease as the cirrus shield exits to the east. We anticipate VFR conditions at all TAF sites this afternoon and most of the evening with a few lingering clouds between 5000 and 8000 ft and scattered to broken high clouds. Another line of storms is expected to form on the dryline this afternoon across West Texas. These storms should begin impacting all terminals, including Waco, between 05Z and 10Z. Storms will exit to the east after sunrise Wednesday. Strong and gusty east to southeast winds will decrease in the next couple of hours. The wind will remain from the east to southeast this afternoon through Wednesday morning at speeds between 8 and 14 knots along with some higher gusts. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 86 69 83 71 85 / 100 60 50 30 30 Waco 90 70 82 71 85 / 50 80 60 20 30 Paris 81 67 81 67 80 / 100 80 70 30 40 Denton 84 67 82 69 83 / 100 60 50 30 30 McKinney 83 68 82 69 82 / 100 70 60 30 30 Dallas 87 69 83 72 85 / 100 60 50 30 30 Terrell 85 68 82 69 84 / 100 60 60 30 30 Corsicana 87 69 84 71 86 / 80 60 60 20 30 Temple 90 70 83 71 86 / 50 70 50 20 20 Mineral Wells 86 68 81 69 84 / 90 70 50 20 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$