Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 210511 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1111 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

LITTLE CHANGE FROM TRENDS EXPECTED EARLIER AT 00Z. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY COME DOWN INTO IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS TEMPS SLOWLY
COOL TOWARD THE DEW POINT VALUES. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS
EXPECTED AS WELL AS THIS OCCURS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND CONTINUING AT
LEAST THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...A SLOW RISE BACK INTO MVFR
AFTER MIDDAY IS EXPECTED. LIGHT E/SE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS WILL VEER
SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

05/

&&

.UPDATE...
THE EVENING SOUNDING INDICATES THAT MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
BENEATH 850MB...LIKELY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT WINDS. WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING TO
THE EAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EAST. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT...WHICH MEANS THAT THE LOW CLOUD COVER SHOULD HANG ON
THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY SUNDAY. GRADUAL COOLING/INCREASING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WE WILL ADD THESE ELEMENTS TO THE
OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING GRIDS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
MIX OUT THE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

QUITE VARIABLE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT
PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITIES WILL BE HARD TO COME BY.

CLOUDS HAVE HUNG ON TENACIOUSLY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH PERSISTING FROM
ARKANSAS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.  AS THE GRADIENT OF THE
QUASI-ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN INTENSIFIES...HOWEVER...BETTER
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING SHOULD DEVELOP TO OUR WEST SUNDAY...ALLOWING
SOUTH WINDS TO PICK UP AND BEGIN ERODING THE CLOUDINESS BY
AFTERNOON. SOME LATE DAY SUN...COUPLED WITH A MODEST LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESS INCREASE SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 50S AREA-WIDE.

WITH EVEN MORE SUN AND A STEPPED UP SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO REBOUND NICELY ON MONDAY AS WELL. THIS BRIEF
WARM UP WILL PRECEDE ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WILL
AFFECT NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY. A FAIRLY STOUT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD SET UP ACROSS
THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE VALUES
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE
40S...WHILE READINGS CLOSER TO A KILLEEN-PALESTINE LINE SHOULD
REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S.

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE PLAINS STATES BY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH A SMALLER-SCALE SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO JUSTIFY SMALL POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SOME WINTER PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY...BUT LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES JUST DON`T SEEM TO GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY OF
THIS SURVIVING TO THE SURFACE. IN GENERAL...THE BULK OF THE LIFT
AND MOISTURE APPEARS THAT IT WILL DEPART THE REGION BEFORE ANY
SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR CAN ARRIVE TO CAUSE ISSUES.

THE ROLLER-COASTER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WEDNESDAY AND PARTICULARLY CHRISTMAS
DAY. ANOTHER FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING HIGHS BACK TO NEAR OR
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. RIGHT
NOW...CONDITIONS LOOK DRY FROM TUESDAY ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

BRADSHAW

66/25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  54  46  65  44 /   5  10  10   5  20
WACO, TX              42  56  47  67  45 /   5  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             41  52  43  61  44 /   5  10  10  10  30
DENTON, TX            41  54  45  62  43 /   5  10  10   5  30
MCKINNEY, TX          42  52  44  62  44 /   5  10  10   5  30
DALLAS, TX            42  54  47  65  45 /   5  10  10   5  20
TERRELL, TX           43  55  46  63  45 /   5  10  10  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         43  57  47  65  47 /   5  10  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            43  57  46  68  46 /   5  10  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  55  43  67  43 /   5  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/30




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