Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 020946
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
346 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...COLD AND WET TODAY...WARMER TUESDAY...MUCH COLDER AND WINTRY
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS WEDNESDAY...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...

TODAY...
AN UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN ON THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SPINNING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES OVER NORTH TEXAS EAST OF THE UPPER LOW. AT THE
SURFACE...SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND
40S TODAY. THETA-E SURFACES INDICATE THAT THE PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
CONTINUE ONCE AGAIN TODAY...PROVIDING LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR WHERE THE STRONGEST
LIFT RESIDES. A FEW STATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES ARE
HOVERING AROUND 32 THIS MORNING. BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
MAY PRODUCE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON ELEVATED SURFACES IN THESE
LOCATIONS...BUT ICY ROADS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...
RETURN FLOW SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY TO THE SURFACE AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...PROVIDING WARMER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH A FEW 70S POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL AREAS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAINFALL TOTALS
EXPECTED.

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS AT THIS
TIME. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...SENDING ANOTHER SOUTHWARD SURGE
OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE RED RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH
OF NORTH TEXAS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY
OVER THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY...CROSSING THE RED RIVER IN THE MORNING AND CLEARING
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW
TO OUR WEST WILL OPEN UP AND TRAVEL EAST-NORTHEAST IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...CROSSING NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS AT THIS
TIME THAT ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE STRONGEST
AFTER THE COLD AIR IS ALREADY IN PLACE...GIVING US ANOTHER CHANCE
TO SEE SOME WINTER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WE CONTINUE TO RUN INTO THE ISSUE OF THE AMOUNT OF MODEL
DISCREPANCIES BEING HIGH ENOUGH TO CAST UNCERTAINTY ON THE
SPECIFICS OF PRECIP TYPE/TIMING AND ACCUMULATIONS. EXCEPTIONALLY
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE IS BEING ADVERTISED BY
THE VAST MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL MIX WITH SLEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY TRANSITION TO ALL SLEET AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S /LATE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH
AND EVENING IN THE SOUTH/. TEMPERATURE PROFILES STILL SHOW THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW ON EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN. THOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND SNOW ARE UNCERTAIN...WE DO HAVE ENOUGH
INFORMATION TO KNOW THAT SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE A POSSIBILITY FOR
MOST OF NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MORE DETAILS
WILL BE UNCOVERED AS WE MONITOR THE APPROACHING SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

REST OF THE WEEK...
A CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING...THEN THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY. ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO ON THE HEELS OF OUR MIDWEEK
SYSTEM. LOW END CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OVER THE WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1121 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/
/06Z TAFS/

CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE THE WAA ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION
AROUND 4 KFT AND -RA/-DZ AND AFFECT ON CIGS/VSBYS.

DFW METRO CONTINUE TO BE LOW MVFR DESPITE THE ONSET OF SOME SPOTTY
-RA/-DZ. SO WILL START P6SM WITH LOW MVFR WITH TEMPO IFR CIGS
THROUGH 09Z...THEN PULL CIGS DOWN INTO LOWER IFR WITH OCCASIONAL
-DZ OR -RA. HAVE PULLED LIFR CONDS OUT OF FORECAST DESPITE THEM
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND WILL GO DOWN AS LOW AS 600 FT AND
LET MID SHIFT REASSESS...AS NORTH WINDS MAINTAINING AROUND 10 KTS
SHOULD KEEP THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER A LITTLE MORE MIXED THAN THIS
TIME 24 HRS AGO.

WACO CURRENT LIFR WITH IFR VSBYS AND WILL MAINTAIN THAT THROUGH
15Z...THEN SLOWLY BRING THEM UP TO IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS BY MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN SLIDING ESE OF THE AREA
AFTER 00Z TUES OR MONDAY EVENING...WITH WIND SPEEDS LESSONING. THE
NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL REMAIN SATURATED AND THOUGH WE COULD SEE
LIFR CIGS AND SOME FG...HAVE DECIDED TO PLAY IT CONSERVATIVE WITH
IFR CIGS/VSBY FOR THIS FAR OUT.

05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  41  40  65  39  39 /  30  30  40  60  70
WACO, TX              43  42  69  48  48 /  40  30  30  50  70
PARIS, TX             42  39  63  38  40 /  40  30  60  60  70
DENTON, TX            40  39  65  35  37 /  30  30  40  60  60
MCKINNEY, TX          40  40  64  37  38 /  30  30  50  60  70
DALLAS, TX            41  41  67  40  41 /  30  30  40  60  70
TERRELL, TX           43  41  67  42  43 /  40  30  50  60  70
CORSICANA, TX         44  43  68  46  47 /  40  30  40  60  70
TEMPLE, TX            43  42  68  50  50 /  30  30  30  40  70
MINERAL WELLS, TX     40  39  69  35  37 /  30  30  30  60  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/30



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