Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 010230 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
830 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Some adjustments to tonight`s convective trends were in order per
latest high-resolution guidance of the HRRR, TTU WRF, NAM12, and
WRF East models. Latest 01Z LAPS soundings were indicating a
strengthening EML south of I-20/I-30 corridors, with lesser
inhibition further north, especially north of HWY 380 and
particularly the immediate Red River counties. High-res models are
much drier than the standard synoptic models, especially across
Central TX.

I have adjusted for lower chances of initiation from near Decatur
to Gainesville just before midnight, as the triple point of the
dryline and approaching strong cold front arrive in tandem with
stronger large-scale ascent. The HRRR seems to be most aggressive
here, but has been consistent with its forecast the past several
hours. Looking at thermodynamic analysis, it looks quite
reasonable. TTU WRF keeps most discrete activity north of the Red
River and toward the Ozarks. If a few storms do develop as the
HRRR suggests, then 0-6km bulk shear near 50 knots, strong but
veered 15-20 knot 0-1km shear, and very steep lapse rates all
suggest storms growing upscale very quickly to strong and severe
levels. We`ll be monitoring trends closely as we approach
midnight. Main threats appear to be large hail to ping pong ball
size and potentially damaging winds if storms can get rooted into
the boundary layer.

The severe threat will likely shift east of our NE counties by
3-4 am CST with a few showers and elevated, non-severe storms
potentially lingering across our southern counties along and east
of I-45 with the strong cold front.



/ISSUED 704 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail. Shift to north flow early Wednesday.

Low clouds are now confined to areas east of the I-35 corridor.
Although winds near the top of the boundary layer may approach
50 knots later this evening, veering flow should focus much of the
moist advection and any MVFR ceilings into East Texas.

The 00Z RAOB from Fort Worth shows a capping inversion remains
around 850mb, preventing the 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE from being
realized. Forcing for ascent will spread across the region this
evening, but this will occur as the boundary layer cools. However,
as a cold front approaches the Red River around midnight, it may
impart sufficient lift for thunderstorms to develop. This activity
would potentially impact the Bonham cornerpost, but storms are
unlikely to affect Metroplex TAF sites. Any storms would race
eastward, and surface winds will veer during the predawn hours.
The cold front will arrive before daybreak, and north flow will
prevail Wednesday and Wednesday night.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017/
A strong capping inversion has held across the region today. The
dry line has moved just to east of a Wichita Falls to Junction
line as of 3 PM while a cold front extended from northwestern
Missouri to southeastern Colorado. We will likely need the cold
front and an approaching shortwave to weaken the cap sufficiently
for surface based storms tonight. Have kept a 20-30 percent POPs
in for areas along and northeast of a Bowie to Palestine line
through this evening and 20-30 percent POPs overnight along and
east of a Sherman to Lampasas line. With steep lapse rates and
strong shear, if the cap were to break, some severe storms would
be possible.

The cold front will move into the Graham to Bowie areas shortly
after midnight and sweep rapidly southeast through all but the
southeastern-most zones by daybreak Wednesday. Winds will shift to
the west at 10 to 15 mph as the front approaches and then become
northwest to north at 15 to 20 mph and some higher gusts with
frontal passage. Lows tonight will range from the mid 40s
northwest to lower 60s southeast.

Winds will be north at 15 to 20 mph Wednesday with some gusts
over 25 mph. The combination of the winds and relative humidities
in the upper teens to mid 20s, elevated to critical fire weather
conditions are expected mainly along and west of the Interstate 35
corridor. Dry weather is expected across the North and Central
Texas Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures will be cooler but
will be near or slightly above normal through this period except
for Wednesday night. Lows Wednesday night will be mostly in the
30s...except near 40 southeast.

Southerly winds will return Friday. As a surface trough deepens
to our west, expect gusty southerly winds Saturday to advect gulf
moisture northward. Low rain chances will start to return by
Saturday afternoon and continue Saturday night through Sunday
night. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Tuesday until a cold front pushes through and brings in drier



Dallas-Ft. Worth    53  65  38  64  41 /  10   5   0   0   0
Waco                53  67  36  65  37 /  10  10   0   0   0
Paris               52  63  35  63  39 /  40  10   0   0   0
Denton              49  63  33  64  37 /  20   5   0   0   0
McKinney            52  65  35  64  38 /  20   5   0   0   0
Dallas              52  65  40  65  42 /  20   5   0   0   0
Terrell             54  66  37  64  38 /  20  10   0   0   0
Corsicana           56  68  39  65  40 /  20  10   0   0   0
Temple              55  68  37  65  37 /  10  10   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       49  64  32  65  36 /   5   5   0   0   0




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