Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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899
FXUS64 KFWD 120532 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1132 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/

NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAF FORECAST. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 10 KT BY MORNING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LGT/VAR WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AT WACO BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

DUNN

&&

.UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH OF I-20 CURRENTLY.
THE FRONT WILL NOT PICK UP FORWARD SPEED UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE...AS
IT GETS SUPPORT FROM A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND STRONGER CAA
SUPPORT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. RUC/LAV DATA SEEMS TO BE HANDING
THE DEW PTS...TEMPS AND FRONTAL MOVEMENT THE BEST. WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEW PTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES COULD LEND TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM THE
PREDAWN HOURS THROUGH MID MORNING. SUPER SATURATION DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE...AND THUS DO NOT EXPECT ANY DENSE AREAS.

OTHERWISE...CAA THAT WAS DELAYED DOES ARRIVE FINALLY TOMORROW WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S...OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED 70 DEGREE READING
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL A
LITTLE CHILLY BY LATE MORNING.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/
THE WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD SINCE THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
AREAWIDE WITH AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
REGION. AS OF 2PM WACO HAS RECORDED A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 81
DEGREES...WHICH WILL TIE THEIR RECORD HIGH FOR THE DAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE PLAINS WILL PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. RETURN FLOW WILL REDEVELOP BY
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. A DEVELOPING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH
THIS LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. INSTABILITY LOOKS
RATHER MEAGER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE PULLED MENTION OF THUNDER
FOR ALL BUT OUR FAR EAST COUNTIES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING PLEASANT CONDITIONS AND A SLOW RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 99



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  66  39  59  46 /   0   0   0   0   5
WACO, TX              42  69  39  64  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
PARIS, TX             38  63  35  52  37 /   0   0   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            38  65  35  57  44 /   0   0   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          38  65  37  55  42 /   0   0   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            43  65  41  58  46 /   0   0   0   0  10
TERRELL, TX           41  67  39  57  43 /   0   0   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         46  68  42  61  46 /   0   0   5   0  10
TEMPLE, TX            45  70  41  65  49 /   0   0   5   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     38  68  35  61  45 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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