Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 272023
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
323 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS QUICKLY INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AFTER THE AREA WAS LEFT SCOURED OUT BEHIND
THE CONVECTION THAT PUSHED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. AS A RESULT...CAPE
VALUES HAVE SOARED ABOVE 2000 J/KG ACROSS AREAS SOUTHWEST OF A
BOWIE TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. HOWEVER...THE CAP STILL REMAINS IN
TACT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO
DEVELOP. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE TRIED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BUT MOST HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET GOING. THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER...EXPECT
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING BECAUSE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT VERY STRONG
RIGHT NOW. STORM MOTION WOULD LIKELY BE SLOW AS WELL...SO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL
RIDE ALONG THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MAKE IT INTO
TEXAS LATE TOMORROW. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL PROVIDE LARGE
SCALE LIFT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY.
BECAUSE THE SOILS...RIVERS/CREEKS..AND LAKES ARE NEARLY ALL
SATURATED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...IT WOULD ONLY TAKE AN
INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS. HIGH
RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN SOLID AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
TIMING...STRENGTH AND/OR COVERAGE OF STORMS ON THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. HOWEVER...A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE NEAR
FUTURE FOR PARTS OF THE AREA AS NEW GUIDANCE COMES IN.

THE BROAD LARGE SCALE TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO TURN OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS IS PROGGED TO PUSH EASTWARD EARLY THIS WEEKEND. AS
IT TRAVERSES THE PLAINS...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY.
THIS SOURCE OF LIFT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS RIDGING TO OCCUR TO OUR WEST. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WOULD
SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...IT MAY PUT US IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND IF
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS/FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES IN SUCH A PATTERN...IT COULD
BRING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TO NORTH TEXAS. AT THIS TIME...WILL
KEEP A SUNNY DISPOSITION AND SIDE WITH THE GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH TEXAS AND LEAVE US WITH SUBSIDENCE.

AJS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1235 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/
VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
EVENING (23-02Z)...SO VCTS WAS KEPT FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. MODELS
INDICATE THERE WILL BE MORE STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING...MVFR CIGS
9-15Z.

78


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  85  70  84  69 /  40  40  50  50  40
WACO, TX              71  86  71  85  68 /  40  40  40  50  30
PARIS, TX             68  82  70  82  68 /  30  40  50  60  50
DENTON, TX            68  84  70  82  68 /  30  40  60  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          70  84  69  83  68 /  30  40  50  50  50
DALLAS, TX            70  85  71  84  70 /  40  40  50  50  40
TERRELL, TX           72  84  71  85  69 /  40  40  40  50  40
CORSICANA, TX         72  84  71  85  69 /  40  40  40  50  30
TEMPLE, TX            69  87  71  86  68 /  40  40  40  40  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  83  68  83  67 /  40  40  60  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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