Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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527
FXUS64 KFWD 230855
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
255 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017


.SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/

Clear skies, light winds and the presence of a dry continental
airmass have all contributed to optimal radiational cooling
conditions last night through this morning. Several locations
across the area have dropped below freezing during the past few
hours, making for a particularly chilly start to the Thanksgiving
holiday. The surface ridge currently providing the calm to light
winds will shift southeast towards the upper Texas Coast during
the day, which will lead to the return of light south winds.
Meanwhile, subsidence will increase today as an upper ridge over
the Southwest States nudges eastward. Sunny skies, light return
flow and increasing subsidence will bring about a quick warm-up
this afternoon.

The warmest air will be west of I-35 where the best subsidence
and better return flow will exist, and the current forecast
indicates lower and mid 70s. Eastern counties will be less
influenced by the ridge and should top out on the 60s this
afternoon. Another chilly night is in store tonight, but better
low level moisture should keep tonight`s low temps in the 40s
under partly cloudy skies.

30

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Remainder Of Thanksgiving Weekend through Next Wednesday/

The deep upper trough east -- upper ridge west pattern aloft
across the CONUS will finally dampen somewhat through the rest of
the holiday weekend. Persistent, strong northerly flow aloft
will give way to slightly weaker northwest flow aloft, as subtle
mid level height rises build in from the southwest. A dry cold
frontal passage occurs on Saturday, however better cold low level
advection will remain off to the northeast of North and Central
Texas. Any change in sensible weather will be a subtle one. With
the Continental Shelf across the Northwest Gulf of Mexico
remaining scoured, no rainfall is expected with the cold front.

Friday will be the warmest day as the low level thermal ridge
will set up ahead of Saturday`s cold front. Well above normal
temperatures are expected for those out looking for Black Friday
deals as highs will be in the 70s. Areas well west of I-35 will be
closer the upper ridge and could see highs Friday rise into the
lower 80s. Saturday`s surface cold front will drop highs back
into the upper 60s and 70s, but these values still remain above
climatological normals for late November. The most noticeable
effects of the dry continental airmass will be at night, as the
dry airmass cools rapidly after nightfall with low temperatures
cooling to between 45-55 degrees on average each morning around
sunrise. Plentiful sunshine will be the rule outside of periodic
streaks of high cloudiness with shortwave disturbances moving
southeast across the area. Both Friday and Saturday will be
fairly breezy. The pressure gradient both ahead and behind the
cold front will allow for occasionally gusty south winds 15-20 mph
on Friday, shifting northeast 10 to 15 mph on Saturday. Winds
will be more relaxed by Sunday as a broad surface high pressure
ridge settles across the Southern Plains.

Warm and breezy conditions return on Monday, as surface pressure
falls along the lee of the rockies combine with an upper ridge
sliding over the region. Meanwhile, an upper level disturbance
will be organizing over the Rockies and Desert Southwest. Gusty
south winds 15 to 20 mph and high temperatures between 75 and 80
degrees west of I-35 will return. Some moisture flux will surge
north from the Gulf of Mexico, but is not expected to be overly
rich due the numerous past frontal passages that have swept across
the Northwest Gulf of Mexico. The deep latitudinal Rockies trough
will swing east over the Plains by Tuesday Night into Wednesday.
A shallow cold front arrives on Tuesday and outruns the upper
level trough. Stronger cold advection will be delayed behind this
cold front until Wednesday. I will continue low chances for rain
or showers across mainly the eastern half of the area moving into
mid week, as this is where better moisture will reside. We should
have better model handling with this system as we move through the
holiday weekend and early next week. We`ll continue to refine
rain chances and temperatures once this system is sampled better
by the upper-air network.

05/

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1124 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017/
VFR conditions will persist at all of the North and Central
Texas TAF sites through 12z Friday. A surface ridge that extended
along the I-35 corridor as 05z will continue to move east. Light
and variable winds at the TAF sites as of 05z will become
southerly at around 8 knots by 15z Thursday. Only scattered high
clouds are expected.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    68  46  78  50  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                69  42  78  47  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               62  41  71  46  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              68  43  78  47  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            66  42  75  47  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              68  47  77  50  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             65  41  75  47  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           66  43  74  48  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              69  42  78  47  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       72  43  82  47  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

05/30



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