Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 221730
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1230 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.AVIATION...
Lingering MVFR ceilings will scatter out at all TAF sites between
18Z and 20Z as drier air mixes through the boundary layer. VFR
will prevail this afternoon and this evening. Low clouds will once
again develop over the Hill Country late this evening as a 35 knot
low level jet sets up. Ceilings should remain above 1000 ft but
could briefly fall just below 1000 ft around sunrise. ALL low
ceilings should quickly lift and scatter out Thursday morning
with vigorous daytime mixing.

We do not expect any showers or storms at the terminals through
this forecast cycle due to a stout cap of warm air in place
between 800mb and 700mb. A few elevated showers or storms could
develop closer to the Red River due to decent mid level
instability.

Southerly flow will prevail through the TAF cycle. Wind speeds
today and tonight will range between 10 and 14 knots along with
some higher gusts. Wind speeds will increase between 15 and 20
knots by mid morning Thursday due to mixing down of higher
momentum air and a tightening pressure gradient.

79

&&

.UPDATE...
A southwestward propagating gravity wave which likely originated
near a convective complex over Arkansas seems to be enhancing the
low cloud deck across the northeastern counties. This and the
presence of a stationary front should limit surface heating, and
have lowered temperatures a few degrees in this area. Otherwise,
slight chance POPs have been added to the northern 2 rows of
counties where some modest instability will exist along the front.
Upper ridging should keep a lid on most convection.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017/
A very progressive spring pattern is expected the remainder of
the month of March as a train of 3 mid level systems and
associated surface features affect the area into next week.
Currently, a stationary surface front was just off our northwest
CWA edge and though it could briefly drift southeast early this
morning, increasing surface lee cyclogenesis should help mix the
old front readily northward late today. I have removed any mention
of patchy drizzle this morning as most areas should remain mixed
with south-southeast winds near 10 mph most areas. A shortwave
aloft was noted moving east-southeast across western Oklahoma
early this morning and well behind the cold front. Regional radar
was showing some scattered very light shower activity associated
with this feature. A quick look at environmental analysis does
show fairly steep lapse rates aloft. Though activity should
diminish in areal coverage by sunrise today and after, I went
ahead and introduced low chances for isolated showers and
thunderstorms north of Highway 380/I-30 corridors, with the best
chance for a few early morning lightning strikes occurring along
the immediate Red River Valley. No strong or severe storms are
expected, but you may want to take an umbrella with you across
these areas and be wary of an occasional lightning strike here and
there. Due to the high-based and possibly elevated nature of the
expected convection, rainfall amounts are expected to be
negligible.

Once today`s shortwave disturbance passes quickly northeast of
the area, a shortwave ridge will amplify ahead of a deepening
system currently moving into the West Coast. The aforementioned
lee cyclogenesis ahead of this system should continue breezy and
warm conditions with increasing humidity tonight through Thursday
evening. The deep, lumbering system out west should begin to
impinge the Central and Southern High Plains/Texas Panhandle
region Thursday evening. Increasing height falls across those
areas will hold a surface dryline back well west of our area with
discrete convection developing on this boundary just before
midnight Friday. As the system continues its track eastward over
the High Plains through Friday morning, the dryline (or surface
trough) will slide east into our far western counties by daybreak
Friday morning. Have maintained chances for what could be mostly
elevated convection as surface dew points remain in the 50s.
Can`t rule out a strong storm, but the bigger show will be along
and east of I-35/35W on Friday as the surface dryline, Pacific
cold front, and large-scale ascent move east across the area.
There will remain a risk for strong to severe storms, especially
within our eastern counties Friday afternoon and evening. The
main threat would be large hail and a localized damaging wind
threat. It must be stressed that the late Friday severe weather
potential will be conditional on two things: 1. if the
environment in the east can remain uncorrupted from morning
activity and destabilize quickly and 2. if rich enough surface
dew points in the lower 60s can help create updrafts rooted in
the boundary layer. As of now, the potential is high enough to
keep a mention of this possibility for later on Friday.

Showers and thunderstorms will transition quickly east out of the
area later Friday evening with a quick end to any severe weather
risk. The core of the mid level low will track east across
southern Oklahoma on Friday night and have maintained some low,
non-severe convective chances across the Red River and northeast
counties overnight. Afterward, a pleasant, cooler, and less humid
day will occur Saturday before the transition back to south winds
and warmer temperatures occurs by Sunday morning as the surface
front shoots back north as a warm front and out of Texas.
Increasing surface cyclogenesis over the High Plains in advance
of yet another strong but more progressive mid level shortwave
trough will move out across the Southern Plains later on Sunday
into Monday morning. This system will track a little further north
where better ascent will occur. Regardless, rich surface dew
points in the 60s will surge north, with warming high
temperatures. The combination of increasing instability both
surface-based and aloft, along with strong deep layer shear,
could make for a higher severe weather risk though lower coverage.
Outdoor enthusiasts should keep an eye to the sky Sunday and
Sunday night. The highest threat for severe storms appears to be
north of I-20 Sunday afternoon and evening.

The second shortwave system will be even more progressive and
exit our area Monday morning. A strengthening upper ridge will
slide overhead late Monday into Tuesday though this is where
medium range models begin to show higher spreads on system track,
speed, and resulting weather. After collaboration with
neighboring NWS offices, it was agreed upon to lean toward the
slower GFS solution versus the more progressive ECMWF with a
stout upper ridge expected to continue through Tuesday/Tuesday
night. Have dropped storm chances from the forecast during this
period though certainly we`ll know more when this system is
better sampled by the upper-air network through this weekend. We
do bring this third system in for the middle of next week (namely
Wednesday/Wednesday evening) with what could be another severe
weather episode across the area. Temperatures will remain above
climatological norms for late March with highs mostly in the 70s
to lower 80s just before these systems arrive.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    82  64  85  65  82 /  10   0   5  30  90
Waco                80  65  83  65  81 /   0   0   5  20  90
Paris               71  58  82  60  72 /  20   5  10   5  90
Denton              81  63  84  63  81 /  20   0   5  30  80
McKinney            75  62  83  62  75 /  20   0   5  20  90
Dallas              80  64  85  65  79 /  10   0   5  20  90
Terrell             78  62  84  63  74 /   5   5  10  10  80
Corsicana           81  63  85  63  75 /   0   5   5  10  80
Temple              82  64  84  63  81 /   0   5   5  20  80
Mineral Wells       84  62  85  60  83 /   5   0   5  40  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

79/30



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