Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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241
FXUS64 KFWD 121832 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1232 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS ON SATURDAY.

NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL RETURN MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY. THE MORNING FOG ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS HAS DISSIPATED...LEAVING FEW CLOUDS...BUT SOME
OF THE HIGHEST DEW POINTS IN RECENT WEEKS SHOW THAT PLENTY OF
GULF MOISTURE REMAINS. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN FILTERING
INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY...AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE IN WACO AROUND MIDDAY. ALTHOUGH STRATOCU CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY IN THE METROPLEX...AT THAT
POINT...CEILINGS WOULD BE VFR.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/
THE COLD FRONTAL THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING 5 OR SO DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY...RANGING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. WITH MORE COLD AIR ADVECTION THE HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE
IN MORE OF THE NORMAL RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RANGING IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND THE RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST...WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO
THE REGION. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME. MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE RED RIVER...WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S.

78.JG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  40  59  48  65  48 /   0   0   5  20  30
WACO, TX              40  64  48  69  51 /   0   0  10  20  20
PARIS, TX             36  52  38  54  43 /   0   0   5  20  50
DENTON, TX            36  58  46  64  46 /   0   0   5  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          38  56  44  62  46 /   0   0   5  20  40
DALLAS, TX            42  58  48  65  49 /   0   0  10  20  30
TERRELL, TX           40  58  45  62  49 /   0   0   5  20  50
CORSICANA, TX         43  61  48  66  51 /   5   0  10  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            42  65  50  70  51 /   5   0  10  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     36  61  47  69  45 /   0   0   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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