Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 231723 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1123 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...STRONG W-NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CROSSWIND ISSUES IN THE METROPLEX...IN
PARTICULAR ON N-S RUNWAYS. SPEEDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER AT KACT.

DFW TAF SITES...A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS OKLAHOMA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST
THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INVADE
THE REGION AND THEN BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES THIS EVENING. TO START THE TAF...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL FOR A FEW HOURS WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. BY 22Z...EXPECT WNW WINDS SUSTAINED
20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE AROUND
24/00-24/01Z RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY MORE NW WINDS. WIND SPEEDS AND
GUSTS WILL START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND THEN SPEEDS WILL
EVENTUALLY DROP BELOW 12 KTS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
CROSSWIND ISSUES BETWEEN 22-03Z.

WACO...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH OKLAHOMA...WIND
SPEEDS AT KACT WILL BE LOWER THAN THE METROPLEX. SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 15-20 KTS AND THEN
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 24/01Z AS THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KTS RANGE FOR
A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30
KTS. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN EVENTUALLY
DROP BELOW 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS YESTERDAY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
AREA ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. ALL OF THE RAINFALL HAS MOVED EAST OF
NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH SOME REMNANT CLOUD COVER PERSISTING.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO OCCURRING IN AREAS WHERE WINDS HAVE GONE
CALM AND WHERE THERE IS A LACK OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. OTHERWISE...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WHICH IS
MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE
HAS ALREADY INDUCED A LEE SIDE CYCLONE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. THIS IS IMPORTANT FOR TODAYS WEATHER IN NORTH TEXAS
BECAUSE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. AS IT DOES...SURFACE PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...RESULTING IN A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE WESTERLY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
NORTH TEXAS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONCERN TODAY WILL BE EXACTLY
HOW HIGH THE WINDS GET. WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...ANY DEEP MIXING COULD RESULT IN GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH. THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THIS MIGHT HAPPEN...FORECASTING WINDS OF 30G40KT AT DFW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD CAUSE SOME ISSUES AT AREA AIRPORTS IF IT
PANS OUT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE
ON WINDS...SO WILL TONE THINGS DOWN JUST A BIT. THINKING IS THAT
THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS IS WHEN LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST AND THERE
IS A GOOD PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST
WILL SHOW GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH BUT THIS SHOULD BE OF SHORT
DURATION AS A SURFACE INVERSION STARTS TO DEVELOP AFTER DARK. WE
WILL HAVE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS
STARTING AT 2 PM AND CONTINUING UNTIL 8 PM.

WITH WESTERLY WINDS INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO WARM CONSIDERABLY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WILL HAVE
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS. TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE RED RIVER.

COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING...SO HIGHS
ON MONDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER. A SECONDARY FRONT MOVES
IN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 60 DEGREES WHICH IS A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DRY WEEK AHEAD
AND THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT WE WILL WARM UP RATHER NICELY BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES THE WESTERN U.S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO ABOUT 700MB.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. GFS MOS NUMBERS SHOW HIGHS REACHING THE MID 70S
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WE WONT GO QUITE THAT WARM YET BUT WILL
SHOW HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR THANKSGIVING INTO FRIDAY.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  41  63  39  62 /   5   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              77  43  64  35  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             74  40  59  34  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            75  38  61  35  60 /   5   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          75  38  61  34  60 /   5   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            77  41  63  39  62 /   5   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           74  41  62  35  62 /   5   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         77  42  64  37  63 /   5   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            78  41  64  35  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  37  62  35  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>120-129>132-141.


&&

$$

82/05




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