Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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130 FXUS64 KFWD 041940 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 240 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 210 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024/ /Through Wednesday/ This morning`s showers and thunderstorms have finally exited to the east. While we`ll have a break from showers and storms for the remainder of the afternoon and evening, hot and humid conditions will make for a rather uncomfortable afternoon across the region. High temperatures will peak in the upper 80s and 90s across most of the area, with a few spots across western North Texas potentially reaching the 100 degree mark. High humidity will result in heat index values above 100 degrees across quite a few locations. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through this evening for portions of Central Texas where heat index values between 105-110 degrees are expected this afternoon. Fortunately, breezy winds should provide a small amount of relief, but it`ll still feel quite balmy outside today. Sometime this evening, another MCS is expected to develop in Oklahoma and will move south through the overnight hours. We are fairly confident this complex of storms will clip areas east and northeast of the Metroplex late tonight into Wednesday morning. However, the western extent of these storms is highly uncertain. While it`s likely these storms will remain east of the I-35/I-45 corridors, we can`t rule out a few storms further west. Heavy rainfall is expected with this system, and a Flood Watch has been issued for areas that have the highest likelihood of seeing renewed flooding. The current area covered by the Flood Watch may need to be adjusted if models trend further west, but this will be reassessed through the evening. As for the severe threat, we are fairly confident these storms will maintain at least some of their intensity as they cross the Red River. Damaging winds will be the greatest threat, with a lower threat for large hail. However, if discrete storms are able to develop along any outflow boundaries, they would inherently have a higher threat for large hail. Confidence is low in how much and how quickly these storms will weaken as they move south, but all storms should exit to our east sometime late Wednesday morning. The rest of the day Wednesday won`t be quite as hot as today, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Heat index values will reach between 100-105 degrees for a few locations, particularly across Central Texas, but are too marginal to warrant an extension of the current Heat Advisory for now. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Wednesday Night and Beyond/ Mid-level high pressure will push overhead from the west Wednesday night into Thursday, allowing for our first day without any rain chances over our forecast area Thursday. With sunny skies region- wide and rain-free conditions, expect afternoon highs to peak in the mid- to upper 90s across much of North and Central Texas Thursday afternoon. Surface low pressure transiting east across Ontario and the Great Lakes region will drag a weak cold front south across the Plains toward North Texas Thursday night into Friday. Confidence is highest in the frontal boundary stalling near or just north of the Red River early Friday. High-resolution guidance over the next few days will help increase our confidence in a more precise placement of this boundary. Although mid-level ridging and a subtle capping inversion will likely inhibit widespread convection from developing during peak heating Friday afternoon, convergence in the vicinity of the surface trough may offer enough lift to get an isolated thunderstorm or two (~15-20% chance) going across portions of North Texas Friday afternoon/evening. Weak flow aloft will limit the severe threat, but a strong storm or two capable of producing small hail and gusty downburst winds remains possible. If any storms develop, they will quickly diminish late Friday evening with the loss of daytime heating. An upper trough looks to dig south over the Northern Great Plains by the weekend shunting the overhead ridge back to the south and west. This will put portions of the Southern Plains back under active northwest flow aloft. Periodic chances for MCS activity will persist through the remainder of the weekend into early next week, with the greatest chances for additional rainfall residing north of the I-20 corridor into Oklahoma. Slightly above-average temperatures in the low to mid-90s are expected over the weekend. Long-range guidance is in decent agreement that a stronger cold front will push into North Texas in the Sunday-Monday time frame, increasing chances for at least isolated to scattered convection across the region. North-northeasterly winds, increased cloudiness, and potential rainfall may help nudge temperatures back down into the mid- to upper 80s early next week. Langfeld && .AVIATION... /Issued 210 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024/ /18Z TAFs/ MVFR ceilings are finally lifting, with VFR and breezy/gusty winds expected for the remainder of the afternoon. Winds will be out of the south near 15-20 knots with gusts around 25 knots. Wind speeds should decrease this evening, remaining near 10 knots or less through the end of the period. A complex of storms is expected to develop in Oklahoma this evening and move south through portions of North Texas late tonight into Wednesday morning. VCTS was introduced to the D10 TAFs with this issuance, but how far west storms will develop remains highly uncertain at this time. It`s possible storms will remain east of the terminals, but this will be reassessed through the evening. Even if storms do remain to the east, we`ll have to monitor for another outflow boundary to bring a northeast wind shift to D10 very similar to this morning. MVFR ceilings are expected at all terminals early Wednesday morning through midday. Barnes && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 91 73 95 76 / 20 20 0 0 5 Waco 76 91 73 92 74 / 10 20 5 0 0 Paris 69 87 68 92 70 / 60 20 0 0 5 Denton 74 90 71 93 72 / 20 5 0 0 5 McKinney 73 89 70 93 72 / 30 20 0 0 5 Dallas 75 91 73 95 75 / 20 20 0 0 5 Terrell 73 89 70 92 73 / 20 30 0 0 0 Corsicana 75 90 73 92 75 / 20 30 5 0 0 Temple 76 93 74 93 74 / 10 20 5 0 0 Mineral Wells 74 92 71 95 73 / 10 0 0 0 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday morning for TXZ093>095-104>107-120>123-135-148. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ142-156>160-174- 175. && $$