221
FXUS64 KFWD 041910
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
210 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday/

This morning`s showers and thunderstorms have finally exited to
the east. While we`ll have a break from showers and storms for the
remainder of the afternoon and evening, hot and humid conditions
will make for a rather uncomfortable afternoon across the region.
High temperatures will peak in the upper 80s and 90s across most
of the area, with a few spots across western North Texas
potentially reaching the 100 degree mark. High humidity will
result in heat index values above 100 degrees across quite a few
locations. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through this evening
for portions of Central Texas where heat index values between
105-110 degrees are expected this afternoon. Fortunately, breezy
winds should provide a small amount of relief, but it`ll still
feel quite balmy outside today.

Sometime this evening, another MCS is expected to develop in
Oklahoma and will move south through the overnight hours. We are
fairly confident this complex of storms will clip areas east and
northeast of the Metroplex late tonight into Wednesday morning.
However, the western extent of these storms is highly uncertain.
While it`s likely these storms will remain east of the I-35/I-45
corridors, we can`t rule out a few storms further west. Heavy
rainfall is expected with this system, and a Flood Watch has been
issued for areas that have the highest likelihood of seeing
renewed flooding. The current area covered by the Flood Watch may
need to be adjusted if models trend further west, but this will
be reassessed through the evening.

As for the severe threat, we are fairly confident these storms
will maintain at least some of their intensity as they cross the
Red River. Damaging winds will be the greatest threat, with a
lower threat for large hail. However, if discrete storms are able
to develop along any outflow boundaries, they would inherently
have a higher threat for large hail. Confidence is low in how much
and how quickly these storms will weaken as they move south, but
all storms should exit to our east sometime late Wednesday
morning. The rest of the day Wednesday won`t be quite as hot as
today, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Heat
index values will reach between 100-105 degrees for a few
locations, particularly across Central Texas, but are too marginal
to warrant an extension of the current Heat Advisory for now.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 321 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024/
/Thursday Onward/

High pressure should build into the region Wednesday night as a
mid-level ridge noses in from the west. Our forecast area should
finally experience a thunderstorm-free day Thursday, which would
be the first since May 20th. Unfortunately, the lack of rain also
means temperatures will rebound into the mid-upper 90s Thursday
afternoon. Heat index values will be higher, but generally below
our Heat Advisory criteria.

The high pressure will be short-lived as a backdoor cold front
moves into North Texas Friday. Another MCS should develop along
the front in Oklahoma late Thursday, but subtle mid-level ridging
over our area only allows for a 20% chance of it moving south of
the Red River Friday morning. As the front sags into our forecast
area Friday, it should provide enough lift to develop isolated to
scattered thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Coarse global ensemble
data struggled to resolve the location of the front and/or failed
to initiate convection along the boundary, therefore QPF guidance
is resulting in anomalously low PoPs from the NBM. We have added
30% PoPs across the central part of our forecast area, or about 50
miles north and south of where we think the front will be during
peak heating Friday. It appears to be a high CAPE, low shear day
with a low-end severe risk. Our main concern is damaging wind
gusts from collapsing storms, but mid-level moisture advection
would weaken downdrafts and lower the wind potential.

The front will linger somewhere across the Southern Plains through
the weekend before another backdoor cold front brings seasonally
warm weather to the area early next week. Similar to Friday,
isolated to scattered storms are expected near the fronts each
afternoon. Since the placement of the fronts are still highly
uncertain, we have broad 20-30% PoPs from Sunday onward.

Bonnette

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

MVFR ceilings are finally lifting, with VFR and breezy/gusty
winds expected for the remainder of the afternoon. Winds will be
out of the south near 15-20 knots with gusts around 25 knots. Wind
speeds should decrease this evening, remaining near 10 knots or
less through the end of the period.

A complex of storms is expected to develop in Oklahoma this
evening and move south through portions of North Texas late
tonight into Wednesday morning. VCTS was introduced to the D10
TAFs with this issuance, but how far west storms will develop
remains highly uncertain at this time. It`s possible storms will
remain east of the terminals, but this will be reassessed through
the evening. Even if storms do remain to the east, we`ll have to
monitor for another outflow boundary to bring a northeast wind
shift to D10 very similar to this morning. MVFR ceilings are
expected at all terminals early Wednesday morning through midday.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    92  74  91  74  95 /   5  20  20   5   0
Waco                94  76  91  74  93 /   5  10  20   5   5
Paris               85  69  87  69  92 /  50  60  20   5   5
Denton              92  74  90  71  94 /   5  20   5   5   5
McKinney            89  73  89  71  93 /   5  30  20   5   5
Dallas              91  75  91  74  96 /   5  20  20   5   0
Terrell             89  73  89  71  92 /  20  20  30   5   0
Corsicana           91  75  90  74  93 /  20  20  30  10   5
Temple              95  76  93  74  93 /   5  10  20   5   5
Mineral Wells       98  74  92  71  96 /   5  10   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
morning for TXZ093>095-104>107-120>123-135-148.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ142-156>160-174-
175.

&&

$$