217
FXUS64 KFWD 061905
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
205 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1232 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024/
/Through Friday/

Quiet weather will close out the work week as a mid-level ridge
gradually builds over the region. Warm afternoon temperatures and
mostly sunny skies are expected both today and Friday. There is a
very low (10%) chance that an isolated shower or storm will skirt
our northwestern zones this evening. Otherwise, rain chances will
remain near zero over the next couple of days. High temperatures
will be in the 90s both days, but slightly lower humidity than
we`ve seen recently will keep heat index values near actual
temperatures.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Saturday through Thursday/

The weekend weather will feature rain-free and warm conditions
across North Central Texas, as an upper level ridge of high
pressure builds across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi
Valley. Daytime temperatures will rise well into the 90s areawide
Saturday, which represents above normal conditions for early June.
However, with slightly restrained humidity, heat indices at most
locales should only top out in the upper 90s. The ridge will shift
just a bit east on Sunday, inhibiting the highs from climbing much
beyond the lower to middle 90s. However, slightly higher dewpoints
should result in similar heat index vales to those seen Saturday.

A pattern evolution will commence Sunday night as the upper ridge
begins to flatten, and the first of multiple subtle shortwaves
approaches the region from the northwest. The arrival of this weak
forcing for ascent will create an opportunity for the development
of scattered showers and thunderstorms to our immediate northwest
late Sunday night into Monday. Maintained low chance PoPs across
our northwest counties Sunday night, spreading area wide on
Monday. Substantial cloudiness, coupled with areas of rain and the
arrival of a weak cold front, will help limit high temperatures
Monday to the 80s. Apart from the likely presence of the weak
boundary loitering across our southern zones, overall synoptic
scale forcing will be a bit more nebulous on Tuesday. As a result,
kept PoPs Tuesday in the slight chance/low chance range, with low
PoPs persisting into Wednesday due to widely separated diurnal
convection. Highs in the 80s will continue Tuesday and Wednesday,
due to residual cloudcover and an absence of large scale
subsidence.

Unfortunately, an upper ridge will reassert itself across
northern Mexico and Texas from Thursday into Friday, sending
daytime highs back into the upper 90s by the end of the week.

Bradshaw

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1232 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period. Winds will remain variable
out of the east/southeast for the remainder of the afternoon with
wind speeds below 10 knots. Winds may briefly shift out of the
south between 05-08Z tonight, but wind speeds will be below 5
knots during this time. Southerly winds near 10 knots are expected
Friday afternoon.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  94  76  96  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                70  93  74  94  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               69  90  71  91  73 /   5   5   0   0   5
Denton              70  94  75  94  74 /   5   5   0   0   0
McKinney            70  93  74  94  74 /   5   5   0   0   0
Dallas              73  94  76  96  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             69  92  73  93  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           71  94  74  92  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              70  94  73  95  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       70  96  73  96  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$