


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
343 FXUS65 KGGW 112000 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 200 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: 1) A cooler and dry day is expected today. Then a return to 90s Saturday and Sunday as a ridge builds back in. 2) Smoke from central Saskatchewan is expected to arrive in the late afternoon hours today from Plentywood through Sidney, and will remain in place tonight. Smoke will disperse and move away early on Saturday. 3) A cool down with scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected early next week associated with the next storm system. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Relief, in the form of cooler air is expected briefly today with highs in the 70s. Smoke from up in central Saskatchewan is moving through the eastern edge of Montana this afternoon. This smoke plume could dilute partially as it arrives, but HRRR model particle concentrations currently make it look even worse across our area from Plentywood to Sidney. This evening, winds stagnate, keeping the smoke in place and plunging the overnight hours into potentially unhealthy air. Smoke does look to leave the area on Saturday morning. Not thinking a Dense Smoke Advisory is necessary, but will keep an eye on it. Heat will return under another dome of high pressure on Saturday and Sunday with highs reaching the 90s. This heat dome is expected to exit with another cold front through Monday and Tuesday. While conditions do cool off mid-week, confidence in the forecast from about Tuesday onward does drop off rapidly as ensembles split apart quickly there after. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Deviations included wind and sky cover grid adjustments to get match current conditions better. Confidence in smoke arrival today and staying overnight is high. However intensity including air quality and Visibility along with placement is LOW. This will need one or two more runs to check consistency for these items. Confidence in the Monday to Tuesday cold frontal passage timing is low and spread out over nearly 24 hours across the ensembles. Heat relief for Saturday and Sunday may take longer than initially expected. && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: 1958Z FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR. DISCUSSION: HRRR smoke model is pointing toward SMOKE over central Saskatchewan making it into the eastern terminals including KSDY around 22-01Z. The extent of visibility obstruction is in question when it arrives. This may partially dissipate to MVFR by the time it arrives but confidence is very shaky. Once it arrives it is not likely to exit the KSDY till roughly 12Z tonight/Saturday morning. WINDS: NW around 15 to 20 kts, reducing to 10 to 15 kts later in the afternoon and evening. The, becoming light and variable or calm tonight. Then gaining a S component mid morning Saturday. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow