433
FXUS63 KGID 300457
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1157 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Marginal to Slight risk of severe storms mainly
  after 11 PM tonight and lasting into early Mon AM. Damaging
  winds, large hail, and locally heavy rainfall will be the main
  threats.

- After Monday morning, there is a slight chance (15% to 30%) of
  storms Tuesday night into Wednesday and an even higher chance
  (around 30% to 50%) of storms Friday evening.

- Temperatures cool off into the low to mid 80s for Monday then
  warm back up into the low to mid 90s on Wednesday.
  Temperatures for Thursday and Friday will be similar to
  Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

A line of thunderstorms has developed across the Sandhills this
evening. The line will move to the southeast through the night,
bringing hail and gusty winds with it into the area. A second
line of storms has developed over Furnas County and is starting
to expand into northwestern Harlan County. These storms are
expected to move to the east over the next few hours.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for all six of our
Kansas counties and most of our counties in south central
Nebraska. The watch will be in effect until 6am.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Today and tonight...

An upper trough centered over Canada extends southward to Nebraska.
A cold front associated with this trough is positioned across/near
the Kansas/Nebraska border. Temperatures across north central Kansas
and south central and central Nebraska will range from the low 80s
to the mid 90s. This front may drop slightly southward later this
afternoon into this evening but will remain across north central
Kansas. Storms may develop (around a 20% to 30% chance) along
this front later this afternoon into this evening. High CAPE and
mid-level lapse rates will be present but wind shear will be
lacking with values getting up to around 20 knots. These
conditions may still result in some strong to severe storms
mainly across north central Kansas and far south central
Nebraska later this afternoon into this evening. The main
threats with these storms will be large hail and damaging winds.

A shortwave trough is expected to move over the area tonight.
Sufficient CAPE, mid-level lapse rates, and wind shear will be
across the area to allow for another round of severe weather.
The models are showing a complex of storms moving into the area
from the northwest although the models differ somewhat on the
arrival of this complex of storms. The models are generally
showing the storms arriving between midnight and 3 AM for
locations northwest of the Tri-Cities with the complex
continuing to move southeastward. The main threats with these
storms will be damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall;
however, some isolated hail up to around quarter size may occur
initially with these storms. Flash flooding will be possible in
areas with saturated soils from recent rainfall. Low
temperatures tonight will range from the upper 50s to upper 60s.

Monday through Saturday...

Showers and storms may still be ongoing Monday morning, especially
for areas south and east of the Tri-Cities area. This activity is
expected to mostly be out of the area by Monday afternoon. Northerly
winds will be across south central and central Nebraska and north
central Kansas on Monday with temperatures warming up into the low
to mid 80s. Temperatures are expected to cool into the mid 50s to
mid 60s Monday night with the area on the backside of the upper
trough. Upper ridging will mostly be over the area on Tuesday with
temperatures warming up into the mid 80s to low 90s. Low
temperatures Tuesday night will be in the 60s. Southerly winds will
be across the area on Wednesday with temperatures warming up into
the upper 80s to mid 90s. There is a slight chance of showers and
storms on Wednesday with a shortwave trough passing overhead.
Southerly winds will continue Wednesday night with temperatures
cooling into the mid 60s to low 70s.

High temperatures on Thursday will be similar or a degree or
two warmer than those on Wednesday. Winds will be a little
stronger out of the south on Thursday with gusts up to 20 to 30
mph. Low temperatures Thursday night will range from the upper
60s to the low to mid 70s. Winds will be gusty out of the south
to southwest on Friday with gusts up to 20 to 30 mph. High
temperatures on Friday will be similar to the previous day with
highs in the low to mid 90s. An approaching upper trough Friday
evening will result in increased chances (around 30% to 50%) of
showers and thunderstorms. Low temperatures Friday night will be
in the mid 60s to low 70s. An upper trough will pass over the
central Plains on Saturday with a cold front entering the area.
This front will result in high temperatures in the mid 80s to
low 90s on Saturday. Rain and storm chances (15% to 35%) will
linger through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
High confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility and thunderstorm-free
conditions through the majority of the period (particularly the
final 12 hours Monday afternoon-evening). However, portions of
the first 12 hours (06-18Z) feature concerns for not only a
round of potentially strong/severe thunderstorms, but also
perhaps at least a few hours of sub-VFR ceiling. Outside of any
convective outflow influences, winds will not be a major
concern with sustained speeds through most of the period at-or-
below 13KT.

- Ceiling/visibility/thunderstorm potential:
As of this writing, the leading edge of a line of thunderstorms
is still about 110-140 miles northwest of KGRI/KEAR, and is
gradually approaching. The exact timing/intensity of this
thunderstorm complex is by far the main short-term issue. For
now, have slightly adjusted TEMPO groups to 07-10Z KEAR/08-11Z
KGRI to capture the main 3-hour "window of opportunity".
Although not a certaintly, storms COULD be strong to severe,
with the main threat being outflow gusts of 45-55KT, brief heavy
rain and resultant sub-VFR visibility and possibly ceiling.

Speaking of ceiling, as is often the case in the wake of
departing convection, there are still "mixed signals" in
various models/guidance regarding the likelihood of sub-VFR
ceiling Monday morning. Although at least brief (possibly at
least a few hours?) MVFR or even IFR ceiling cannot be totally
ruled out, still don`t have enough confidence to include
prevailing MVFR in TAFS at this time, but will continue to
"hint" at it with SCT lower cloud groups. IF sub-VFR ceiling
does indeed develop, confidence is fairly high it would lift to
VFR and/or scatter out by 17Z.

- Wind details:
Overnight thunderstorms have the potential to bring a brief
blast of 45-55KT winds depending on their intensity. However,
outside of any potential convective outflow, winds will be
modestly-breezy at worst. Right out of the gate, light,
generally easterly breezes prevail. Once convection vacates,
winds will eventually re-establish from a north-northwesterly
direction through the daytime hours, with the steadiest speeds
16-00Z (sustained around 13KT/gusts up to around 20KT). Late in
the period Monday evening, a very light/variable direction
regime settles in under surface high pressure.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wekesser
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Pfannkuch