321
FXUS63 KGID 021147
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
647 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Sunday evening and
  overnight. Initially, hail as large as golfballs, and winds
  gusting to 70MPH will be possible with early storms. Storms
  are expected to become a line with winds to 80MPH possible and
  the hail threat going down.

- Additional chances for showers and storms are expected through
  Tuesday night.

- We will experience a drying out period Wednesday and
  Thursday. Our first 90s of Meteorological Summer will be
  possible Wednesday afternoon across portions of north central
  Kansas and south central Nebraska.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 442 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

A few thunderstorms remain early this morning east of Highway 81.
These storms may produce small hail and winds gusting to around
40mph.  There are storms currently moving through portions of Dodge
City`s area that may eventually make their way into north central
Kansas.  There is still some uncertainty over what impact this may
have for those in our Kansas counties.  A boundary currently
extending from Wakeeney (KS) to Oberlin (KS) to north of Benkelman
(NE) could do one of two things to those storms.  Interacting with
the boundary could have an intensification effect, resulting in some
stronger storms moving into the southern part of the Hastings CWA
later this morning.  The other scenario would be a weakening effect
with storms struggling to reach our southern border.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible once again late this
evening and into the overnight hours for the area.  The Storm
Prediction Center has put the majority of the area into an Enhanced
Risk area for today.  Storms are expected to kick off across the
Nebraska Panhandle and the Colorado Plains later today.  Storms are
expected to be discrete at first, congealing into a line as they
move across the Hastings CWA.  Initially, the main threats will be
hail up to the size of golfballs, and winds up to 70mph.  As storms
become linear, the hail threat will go down and the wind threat will
go up.  A few areas may experience winds gusting to around 80mph. An
isolated tornado cannot be entirely ruled out during this event.
Heavy rain will also be a concern, especially for areas that have
had heavy rain and flooding concerns already this week.  The main
timeframe for severe weather concerns appears to be from around 8PM
to 1AM.

Monday and Tuesday, an upper trough over the PACNW will progress
east-southeast across the Dakotas and into Nebraska.  There will be
a 20-30% chance of showers and storms during the daytime hours on
Monday.  Tuesday brings additional chances for thunderstorms in the
afternoon.  Areas along and west of Hwy 281 will have a 20-40%
chance of precipitation, while areas east will have a 40-60% chance.
 Although we are not currently outlooked for excessive rainfall,
there remains concerns that any thunderstorms moving over areas that
have recently had flooding issues may encounter additional problems.
 This will need to be monitored over the coming days.

Wednesday and Thursday, northwest flow sets up over the region. This
will allow for a needed period of drying out.  Warmer air will move
in, with possibly the first 90s of Meteorological Summer (June 1st-
August 31st) on tap for north central Kansas and portions of south
central Nebraska.  Thursday`s highs will be slightly cooler, with
temperatures in the 80s.  Lows each morning will range from the mid-
50s to mid-60s.

The remainder of the extended forecast brings back low confidence
chances for a few showers and storms.  Models are struggling to nail
down details on the track and timing of a disturbance or series of
disturbances moving through the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 639 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

At KGRI: MVFR conditions are ongoing at the terminal, with
southwest winds around 10-15kts. Expected winds to turn to the
south later this morning, increasing to 13-18kts. Ceilings are
expected to lower ahead of a system advancing in from the west.
Thunderstorms will be possible beginning around 23Z and
continuing through early morning. A few storms may become strong
to severe with hail, damaging wind, and torrential rainfall
possible. Additionally, expect wind shifts and rapid increases
in wind speeds in the vicinity of thunderstorms due to outflow.
heading into the latter part of the morning, winds become light
and variable.

At KEAR: IFR conditions are currently impacting the terminal
with BKN around 800ft. There has been some slight reductions to
visibility due to fog around HDE this morning. Fog may be
possible in the distance of the terminal; however, impacts are
not expected to be significant. Winds will become southerly
around mid-morning, increasing to around 13-18kts. Ceilings are
also supposed to improve to VFR during this timeframe. Heading
into the evening hours, winds become southeasterly. A system
will arrive from the west, with chances for strong to severe
thunderstorms expected through the evening and into the
nighttime hours. Storms that develop may become capable of
producing hail, damaging wind, and torrential rainfall. Wind
shifts and rapid increases in wind speed will be possible in the
vicinity of any thunderstorms due to outflow. Thunderstorms are
expected to clear out after midnight, with winds becoming light
and variable.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wekesser
AVIATION...Wekesser