614
FXUS63 KGLD 080833
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
233 AM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather is possible this afternoon and evening with
  hail up to two inches, and wind gusts up to 70 mph. Overall
  storm chances are around 65%. Severe weather is expected to be
  more isolated to scattered, not widespread across the area.

- Another round of severe weather looks likely with 1.5-2 inch
  hail, 60-70 MPH winds, and excessive rain leading to flooding
  concerns.

- Active weather pattern continues Sunday through Tuesday with
  similar trend of storms moving in from the west during the
  afternoon/evening.

- Potential break in the active weather pattern mid week with
  near triple digit temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 904 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Severe thunderstorm watch #396 has been allowed to expire on
time as the severe threat has ended; although continued
potential for showers and storms continues throughout the night.

Good signal for fog has presented itself as a moist airmass
will remain in place across the area; confidence isn`t high
enough in coverage to issue a DFA but is possible especially
given light winds and the recently saturated boundary layer.

Have also increased pops for the majority of the area for
tomorrow as confidence has increased in severe weather potential
(perhaps significant severe)

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 106 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

This afternoon, there is a 500mb high pressure system sitting in New
Mexico/Texas with a low pressure system over the Great Lakes. A
shortwave is forming in northeastern Colorado and will move over the
CWA over the next few hours, allowing an 850mb lee low to form in
eastern Colorado. The lee low will move on east, bringing a weak
cold front with it. The FROPA will be leaving eastern Colorado
around 20-21Z, convection is expected to form in its wake.

The convection will continue to fire along/behind the FROPA in
clusters and are generally expected to be elevated across most of
the CWA, as evident with inverted-V soundings. There will be plenty
of instability, around 2,500-3,500 J/kg of MUCAPE and shear will be
plentiful with 40-50 kts of effective wind shear. Hail will be the
primary threat throughout most of the CWA, but winds up to 70-80 MPH
could be possible in the far eastern CWA as storms collapse with
over 1,500 J/kg of DCAPE, potentially as a downburst.

The storms most likely to produce severe weather will be in Kansas,
and along and north of I-70. Storm motion looks to be fairly quick
north of I-70, with 40-60 kts of downshear velocities. Storms look
to leave the area around 6-9Z to the east/northeast.

Overnight temperatures will be kept fairly warm due to lingering
cloud cover, only allowing temperatures to cool down to the lower
60s. The cloud cover will stunt warming up tomorrow, too. However
high temperatures tomorrow look to warm into the upper 70s to mid
80s. Temperatures will be the warmest in the southern CWA tomorrow,
which will aid in convective storms.

In the upper and mid levels, tomorrow`s setup looks very similar to
today`s; a shortwave creating a lee low. The biggest difference will
be the convection looks to occur a couple hours later in the day and
we will have northeasterly moisture return during the day ahead of
the storms. The convective parameters are noticeably different for
tomorrow though. Instabilty is reduced tomorrow, with "only" 2,000-
2,750 J/kg MUCAPE, with a long, skinny CAPE profile, and PWATS over
1.3 inches. Although the instability is a little high for ideal
parameters, the soundings look primed for excessive rainfall and
flooding. Downshear velocity is still around 50 kts, however CAMs
are suggesting this event will turn into a large cluster or MCS
event. These storms could produce hail around 1.5 inches and wind
gusts around 60-70 MPH.

Over the past 12 hours, the models are showing the lee low has
shifted north into the GLD CWA. My confidence is not high (~35%) it
will remain this far north, but will instead shift back south where
it has been showing. With the northern track, Wallace county looks
to be at the highest risk for excessive rainfall, but with the
southern track, Wichita county is the focus. Either way, there is a
risk for excessive rainfall leading to flooding tomorrow. Storms
look to move in around 21Z and last until 9-12Z. Tomorrow`s low
temperatures will cool into the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 232 AM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

At the start of the long term period, looking at another shortwave
moving through the flow, which continues the stormy pattern for the
region; however, currently not anticipating severe weather for the
CWA. Going into Tuesday morning, upper low pressure will move
through the OK/TX Panhandle region, followed by high pressure
building in over the Four Corners region through mid-week all the
while low pressure meanders off the West Coast. It`s during the
latter part of the work week this upper low begins its inland
progression, breaking down the ridge, and allowing a return of more
active weather to the area. Details at this range are uncertain, so
continue to monitor the forecast.

Cloud cover and showers/storms on Monday will keep temperatures
below normal for this time of year - currently forecast in the 70s
to low 80s. Tuesday will begin a warming trend with highs forecast
in the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows Monday-Tuesday will be in the
middle 50s to low 60s. With ridging really getting underway mid-
week, will be looking at afternoon highs in the 90s and overnight
lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s. Regarding shower/storm chances
for the period, Monday`s chances will linger into Tuesday morning-
afternoon before a drying trend thereafter - at least until Thursday
evening-night when we`ll see daily chances return through the
remainder of the long term period as the next system nears and
subsequently moves through the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1023 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Scattered hit and miss showers/storms continue across portions
of the area overnight. Main focus will be on developing stratus
and fog as a moist airmass remains in place along with a
recently saturated boundary layer and light winds. Periods of
IFR and localized LIFR conditions are forecast; keeping
terminals out of LIFR due to forecasted limited coverage at this
time. Fog should end mid morning but stratus looks to continue
for the majority of the day especially for KMCK. Another round
of storms; perhaps severe moves across the area around 23Z.After
this exits; more stratus looks to develop in its wake.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...Trigg