Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
614 FXUS63 KGLD 080833 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 233 AM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe weather is possible this afternoon and evening with hail up to two inches, and wind gusts up to 70 mph. Overall storm chances are around 65%. Severe weather is expected to be more isolated to scattered, not widespread across the area. - Another round of severe weather looks likely with 1.5-2 inch hail, 60-70 MPH winds, and excessive rain leading to flooding concerns. - Active weather pattern continues Sunday through Tuesday with similar trend of storms moving in from the west during the afternoon/evening. - Potential break in the active weather pattern mid week with near triple digit temperatures. && .UPDATE... Issued at 904 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Severe thunderstorm watch #396 has been allowed to expire on time as the severe threat has ended; although continued potential for showers and storms continues throughout the night. Good signal for fog has presented itself as a moist airmass will remain in place across the area; confidence isn`t high enough in coverage to issue a DFA but is possible especially given light winds and the recently saturated boundary layer. Have also increased pops for the majority of the area for tomorrow as confidence has increased in severe weather potential (perhaps significant severe) && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 106 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 This afternoon, there is a 500mb high pressure system sitting in New Mexico/Texas with a low pressure system over the Great Lakes. A shortwave is forming in northeastern Colorado and will move over the CWA over the next few hours, allowing an 850mb lee low to form in eastern Colorado. The lee low will move on east, bringing a weak cold front with it. The FROPA will be leaving eastern Colorado around 20-21Z, convection is expected to form in its wake. The convection will continue to fire along/behind the FROPA in clusters and are generally expected to be elevated across most of the CWA, as evident with inverted-V soundings. There will be plenty of instability, around 2,500-3,500 J/kg of MUCAPE and shear will be plentiful with 40-50 kts of effective wind shear. Hail will be the primary threat throughout most of the CWA, but winds up to 70-80 MPH could be possible in the far eastern CWA as storms collapse with over 1,500 J/kg of DCAPE, potentially as a downburst. The storms most likely to produce severe weather will be in Kansas, and along and north of I-70. Storm motion looks to be fairly quick north of I-70, with 40-60 kts of downshear velocities. Storms look to leave the area around 6-9Z to the east/northeast. Overnight temperatures will be kept fairly warm due to lingering cloud cover, only allowing temperatures to cool down to the lower 60s. The cloud cover will stunt warming up tomorrow, too. However high temperatures tomorrow look to warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Temperatures will be the warmest in the southern CWA tomorrow, which will aid in convective storms. In the upper and mid levels, tomorrow`s setup looks very similar to today`s; a shortwave creating a lee low. The biggest difference will be the convection looks to occur a couple hours later in the day and we will have northeasterly moisture return during the day ahead of the storms. The convective parameters are noticeably different for tomorrow though. Instabilty is reduced tomorrow, with "only" 2,000- 2,750 J/kg MUCAPE, with a long, skinny CAPE profile, and PWATS over 1.3 inches. Although the instability is a little high for ideal parameters, the soundings look primed for excessive rainfall and flooding. Downshear velocity is still around 50 kts, however CAMs are suggesting this event will turn into a large cluster or MCS event. These storms could produce hail around 1.5 inches and wind gusts around 60-70 MPH. Over the past 12 hours, the models are showing the lee low has shifted north into the GLD CWA. My confidence is not high (~35%) it will remain this far north, but will instead shift back south where it has been showing. With the northern track, Wallace county looks to be at the highest risk for excessive rainfall, but with the southern track, Wichita county is the focus. Either way, there is a risk for excessive rainfall leading to flooding tomorrow. Storms look to move in around 21Z and last until 9-12Z. Tomorrow`s low temperatures will cool into the mid to upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 232 AM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024 At the start of the long term period, looking at another shortwave moving through the flow, which continues the stormy pattern for the region; however, currently not anticipating severe weather for the CWA. Going into Tuesday morning, upper low pressure will move through the OK/TX Panhandle region, followed by high pressure building in over the Four Corners region through mid-week all the while low pressure meanders off the West Coast. It`s during the latter part of the work week this upper low begins its inland progression, breaking down the ridge, and allowing a return of more active weather to the area. Details at this range are uncertain, so continue to monitor the forecast. Cloud cover and showers/storms on Monday will keep temperatures below normal for this time of year - currently forecast in the 70s to low 80s. Tuesday will begin a warming trend with highs forecast in the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows Monday-Tuesday will be in the middle 50s to low 60s. With ridging really getting underway mid- week, will be looking at afternoon highs in the 90s and overnight lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s. Regarding shower/storm chances for the period, Monday`s chances will linger into Tuesday morning- afternoon before a drying trend thereafter - at least until Thursday evening-night when we`ll see daily chances return through the remainder of the long term period as the next system nears and subsequently moves through the area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1023 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Scattered hit and miss showers/storms continue across portions of the area overnight. Main focus will be on developing stratus and fog as a moist airmass remains in place along with a recently saturated boundary layer and light winds. Periods of IFR and localized LIFR conditions are forecast; keeping terminals out of LIFR due to forecasted limited coverage at this time. Fog should end mid morning but stratus looks to continue for the majority of the day especially for KMCK. Another round of storms; perhaps severe moves across the area around 23Z.After this exits; more stratus looks to develop in its wake. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Trigg SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...CC AVIATION...Trigg