383
FXUS63 KGLD 080310
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
910 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather is possible this afternoon and evening with
  hail up to two inches, and wind gusts up to 70 mph. Overall
  storm chances are around 65%. Severe weather is expected to be
  more isolated to scattered, not widespread across the area.

- Another round of severe weather looks likely with 1.5-2 inch
  hail, 60-70 MPH winds, and excessive rain leading to flooding
  concerns.

- Active weather pattern continues Sunday through Tuesday with
  similar trend of storms moving in from the west during the
  afternoon/evening.

- Potential break in the active weather pattern mid week with
  near triple digit temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 904 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Severe thunderstorm watch #396 has been allowed to expire on
time as the severe threat has ended; although continued
potential for showers and storms continues throughout the night.

Good signal for fog has presented itself as a moist airmass
will remain in place across the area; confidence isn`t high
enough in coverage to issue a DFA but is possible especially
given light winds and the recently saturated boundary layer.

Have also increased pops for the majority of the area for
tomorrow as confidence has increased in severe weather potential
(perhaps significant severe)

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 106 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

This afternoon, there is a 500mb high pressure system sitting in New
Mexico/Texas with a low pressure system over the Great Lakes. A
shortwave is forming in northeastern Colorado and will move over the
CWA over the next few hours, allowing an 850mb lee low to form in
eastern Colorado. The lee low will move on east, bringing a weak
cold front with it. The FROPA will be leaving eastern Colorado
around 20-21Z, convection is expected to form in its wake.

The convection will continue to fire along/behind the FROPA in
clusters and are generally expected to be elevated across most of
the CWA, as evident with inverted-V soundings. There will be plenty
of instability, around 2,500-3,500 J/kg of MUCAPE and shear will be
plentiful with 40-50 kts of effective wind shear. Hail will be the
primary threat throughout most of the CWA, but winds up to 70-80 MPH
could be possible in the far eastern CWA as storms collapse with
over 1,500 J/kg of DCAPE, potentially as a downburst.

The storms most likely to produce severe weather will be in Kansas,
and along and north of I-70. Storm motion looks to be fairly quick
north of I-70, with 40-60 kts of downshear velocities. Storms look
to leave the area around 6-9Z to the east/northeast.

Overnight temperatures will be kept fairly warm due to lingering
cloud cover, only allowing temperatures to cool down to the lower
60s. The cloud cover will stunt warming up tomorrow, too. However
high temperatures tomorrow look to warm into the upper 70s to mid
80s. Temperatures will be the warmest in the southern CWA tomorrow,
which will aid in convective storms.

In the upper and mid levels, tomorrow`s setup looks very similar to
today`s; a shortwave creating a lee low. The biggest difference will
be the convection looks to occur a couple hours later in the day and
we will have northeasterly moisture return during the day ahead of
the storms. The convective parameters are noticeably different for
tomorrow though. Instabilty is reduced tomorrow, with "only" 2,000-
2,750 J/kg MUCAPE, with a long, skinny CAPE profile, and PWATS over
1.3 inches. Although the instability is a little high for ideal
parameters, the soundings look primed for excessive rainfall and
flooding. Downshear velocity is still around 50 kts, however CAMs
are suggesting this event will turn into a large cluster or MCS
event. These storms could produce hail around 1.5 inches and wind
gusts around 60-70 MPH.

Over the past 12 hours, the models are showing the lee low has
shifted north into the GLD CWA. My confidence is not high (~35%) it
will remain this far north, but will instead shift back south where
it has been showing. With the northern track, Wallace county looks
to be at the highest risk for excessive rainfall, but with the
southern track, Wichita county is the focus. Either way, there is a
risk for excessive rainfall leading to flooding tomorrow. Storms
look to move in around 21Z and last until 9-12Z. Tomorrow`s low
temperatures will cool into the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 106 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

This general upper and mid level pattern continues into Tuesday,
giving us a diurnal chance at showers and storms. Monday does look
to have a slightly more developed 500mb low sweeping across the
area, so we will need to keep a close eye on the severe potential
for Monday evening. Sunday and Monday will be cooler with
temperatures remaining in the 70. Tuesday, the cloud cover looks to
break and we will warm into the 80s again

After Tuesday, a ridge looks to extend over the CWA and work to
lower convective chances. This ridge will also usher in hot
temperatures and by Thursday, numerous locations could be looking at
triple digit heat. At the end of the long-term, we are seeing signs
of an upper-level trough cutting into the region that could bring
precipitation and cooler temperatures. Details are not clear yet
about this system, but we will be keeping an eye on it.

Throughout the long-term, low temperatures range in the mid 50s
through upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 502 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Main focus will be on showers and storms across the area which
will remain isolated to scattered. Watching for the potential
for strong to damaging wind gusts at the KGLD terminal as
outflow emanating from cells in northeast Colorado should help
strengthen the showers and storms currently across Kit Carson
county. Supercell to the west of KMCK shouldn`t directly impact
the terminal other than lightning being the main threat. Off
and storms look to occur for the majority of the evening. Fairly
good consensus in low stratus affecting each terminal tomorrow
before another round of storms moves in from the west.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Trigg