Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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039 FXUS63 KGLD 080426 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1026 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe weather is possible this afternoon and evening with hail up to two inches, and wind gusts up to 70 mph. Overall storm chances are around 65%. Severe weather is expected to be more isolated to scattered, not widespread across the area. - Another round of severe weather looks likely with 1.5-2 inch hail, 60-70 MPH winds, and excessive rain leading to flooding concerns. - Active weather pattern continues Sunday through Tuesday with similar trend of storms moving in from the west during the afternoon/evening. - Potential break in the active weather pattern mid week with near triple digit temperatures. && .UPDATE... Issued at 904 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Severe thunderstorm watch #396 has been allowed to expire on time as the severe threat has ended; although continued potential for showers and storms continues throughout the night. Good signal for fog has presented itself as a moist airmass will remain in place across the area; confidence isn`t high enough in coverage to issue a DFA but is possible especially given light winds and the recently saturated boundary layer. Have also increased pops for the majority of the area for tomorrow as confidence has increased in severe weather potential (perhaps significant severe) && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 106 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 This afternoon, there is a 500mb high pressure system sitting in New Mexico/Texas with a low pressure system over the Great Lakes. A shortwave is forming in northeastern Colorado and will move over the CWA over the next few hours, allowing an 850mb lee low to form in eastern Colorado. The lee low will move on east, bringing a weak cold front with it. The FROPA will be leaving eastern Colorado around 20-21Z, convection is expected to form in its wake. The convection will continue to fire along/behind the FROPA in clusters and are generally expected to be elevated across most of the CWA, as evident with inverted-V soundings. There will be plenty of instability, around 2,500-3,500 J/kg of MUCAPE and shear will be plentiful with 40-50 kts of effective wind shear. Hail will be the primary threat throughout most of the CWA, but winds up to 70-80 MPH could be possible in the far eastern CWA as storms collapse with over 1,500 J/kg of DCAPE, potentially as a downburst. The storms most likely to produce severe weather will be in Kansas, and along and north of I-70. Storm motion looks to be fairly quick north of I-70, with 40-60 kts of downshear velocities. Storms look to leave the area around 6-9Z to the east/northeast. Overnight temperatures will be kept fairly warm due to lingering cloud cover, only allowing temperatures to cool down to the lower 60s. The cloud cover will stunt warming up tomorrow, too. However high temperatures tomorrow look to warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Temperatures will be the warmest in the southern CWA tomorrow, which will aid in convective storms. In the upper and mid levels, tomorrow`s setup looks very similar to today`s; a shortwave creating a lee low. The biggest difference will be the convection looks to occur a couple hours later in the day and we will have northeasterly moisture return during the day ahead of the storms. The convective parameters are noticeably different for tomorrow though. Instabilty is reduced tomorrow, with "only" 2,000- 2,750 J/kg MUCAPE, with a long, skinny CAPE profile, and PWATS over 1.3 inches. Although the instability is a little high for ideal parameters, the soundings look primed for excessive rainfall and flooding. Downshear velocity is still around 50 kts, however CAMs are suggesting this event will turn into a large cluster or MCS event. These storms could produce hail around 1.5 inches and wind gusts around 60-70 MPH. Over the past 12 hours, the models are showing the lee low has shifted north into the GLD CWA. My confidence is not high (~35%) it will remain this far north, but will instead shift back south where it has been showing. With the northern track, Wallace county looks to be at the highest risk for excessive rainfall, but with the southern track, Wichita county is the focus. Either way, there is a risk for excessive rainfall leading to flooding tomorrow. Storms look to move in around 21Z and last until 9-12Z. Tomorrow`s low temperatures will cool into the mid to upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 106 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 This general upper and mid level pattern continues into Tuesday, giving us a diurnal chance at showers and storms. Monday does look to have a slightly more developed 500mb low sweeping across the area, so we will need to keep a close eye on the severe potential for Monday evening. Sunday and Monday will be cooler with temperatures remaining in the 70. Tuesday, the cloud cover looks to break and we will warm into the 80s again After Tuesday, a ridge looks to extend over the CWA and work to lower convective chances. This ridge will also usher in hot temperatures and by Thursday, numerous locations could be looking at triple digit heat. At the end of the long-term, we are seeing signs of an upper-level trough cutting into the region that could bring precipitation and cooler temperatures. Details are not clear yet about this system, but we will be keeping an eye on it. Throughout the long-term, low temperatures range in the mid 50s through upper 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1023 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Scattered hit and miss showers/storms continue across portions of the area overnight. Main focus will be on developing stratus and fog as a moist airmass remains in place along with a recently saturated boundary layer and light winds. Periods of IFR and localized LIFR conditions are forecast; keeping terminals out of LIFR due to forecasted limited coverage at this time. Fog should end mid morning but stratus looks to continue for the majority of the day especially for KMCK. Another round of storms; perhaps severe moves across the area around 23Z.After this exits; more stratus looks to develop in its wake. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Trigg SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...Trigg