770
FXUS63 KGLD 072115
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
315 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather is possible this afternoon and evening with
  hail up to two inches, and wind gusts up to 70 mph. Overall
  storm chances are around 65%. Severe weather is expected to be
  more isolated to scattered, not widespread across the area.

- Another round of severe weather looks likely with 1.5-2 inch
  hail, 60-70 MPH winds, and excessive rain leading to flooding
  concerns.

- Active weather pattern continues Sunday through Tuesday with
  similar trend of storms moving in from the west during the
  afternoon/evening.

- Potential break in the active weather pattern mid week with
  near triple digit temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 314 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Storms firing off of the dryline near highway 27 and in western
Cheyenne county in Colorado are in an environment that will
promote explosive growth of storms. This could lead to storms
producing hail around 2 inches in diameter and winds nearing 75
MPH. This has prompted a Severe Thunderstorm Watch to be issued
in the southern 2 rows of counties for the CWA.

We are monitoring the environment in the northern CWA for
convective devlopment.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 106 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

This afternoon, there is a 500mb high pressure system sitting in New
Mexico/Texas with a low pressure system over the Great Lakes. A
shortwave is forming in northeastern Colorado and will move over the
CWA over the next few hours, allowing an 850mb lee low to form in
eastern Colorado. The lee low will move on east, bringing a weak
cold front with it. The FROPA will be leaving eastern Colorado
around 20-21Z, convection is expected to form in its wake.

The convection will continue to fire along/behind the FROPA in
clusters and are generally expected to be elevated across most of
the CWA, as evident with inverted-V soundings. There will be plenty
of instability, around 2,500-3,500 J/kg of MUCAPE and shear will be
plentiful with 40-50 kts of effective wind shear. Hail will be the
primary threat throughout most of the CWA, but winds up to 70-80 MPH
could be possible in the far eastern CWA as storms collapse with
over 1,500 J/kg of DCAPE, potentially as a downburst.

The storms most likely to produce severe weather will be in Kansas,
and along and north of I-70. Storm motion looks to be fairly quick
north of I-70, with 40-60 kts of downshear velocities. Storms look
to leave the area around 6-9Z to the east/northeast.

Overnight temperatures will be kept fairly warm due to lingering
cloud cover, only allowing temperatures to cool down to the lower
60s. The cloud cover will stunt warming up tomorrow, too. However
high temperatures tomorrow look to warm into the upper 70s to mid
80s. Temperatures will be the warmest in the southern CWA tomorrow,
which will aid in convective storms.

In the upper and mid levels, tomorrow`s setup looks very similar to
today`s; a shortwave creating a lee low. The biggest difference will
be the convection looks to occur a couple hours later in the day and
we will have northeasterly moisture return during the day ahead of
the storms. The convective parameters are noticeably different for
tomorrow though. Instabilty is reduced tomorrow, with "only" 2,000-
2,750 J/kg MUCAPE, with a long, skinny CAPE profile, and PWATS over
1.3 inches. Although the instability is a little high for ideal
parameters, the soundings look primed for excessive rainfall and
flooding. Downshear velocity is still around 50 kts, however CAMs
are suggesting this event will turn into a large cluster or MCS
event. These storms could produce hail around 1.5 inches and wind
gusts around 60-70 MPH.

Over the past 12 hours, the models are showing the lee low has
shifted north into the GLD CWA. My confidence is not high (~35%) it
will remain this far north, but will instead shift back south where
it has been showing. With the northern track, Wallace county looks
to be at the highest risk for excessive rainfall, but with the
southern track, Wichita county is the focus. Either way, there is a
risk for excessive rainfall leading to flooding tomorrow. Storms
look to move in around 21Z and last until 9-12Z. Tomorrow`s low
temperatures will cool into the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 106 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

This general upper and mid level pattern continues into Tuesday,
giving us a diurnal chance at showers and storms. Monday does look
to have a slightly more developed 500mb low sweeping across the
area, so we will need to keep a close eye on the severe potential
for Monday evening. Sunday and Monday will be cooler with
temperatures remaining in the 70. Tuesday, the cloud cover looks to
break and we will warm into the 80s again

After Tuesday, a ridge looks to extend over the CWA and work to
lower convective chances. This ridge will also usher in hot
temperatures and by Thursday, numerous locations could be looking at
triple digit heat. At the end of the long-term, we are seeing signs
of an upper-level trough cutting into the region that could bring
precipitation and cooler temperatures. Details are not clear yet
about this system, but we will be keeping an eye on it.

Throughout the long-term, low temperatures range in the mid 50s
through upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1119 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Southerly winds will continue to gust up to 20-30 kts at both
KGLD and KMCK until around 20-22Z when a cold front will start
moving through the area. This will weaken the winds, cause them
to be a bit variable, but eventually become northwesterly.
Storms will move in from the west over the following few hours,
starting at KGLD. At KGLD, storms look to linger in the area
until about 3-4Z, for KMCK, storms are expected to linger until
about 8Z. Tomorrow morning, stronger northeasterly flow will
bring in some stratus. We cannot rule out IFR conditions around
and after 12Z for both KGLD and KMCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...CA