Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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950 FXUS63 KGLD 070829 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 229 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe weather returns Friday. Main threat is hail up to golf ball size and wind gusts up to 70 MPH with a secondary threat of Quasi Linear Convective System (QLCS) tornadoes. - Active weather pattern continues Saturday through Monday with similar trend of storms moving in from the west during the afternoon/evening. - Potential break in the active weather pattern mid week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 711 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Anticipating showers and storms to develop around sunrise as isentropic lift enhances; RAP has consistently been showing this additional lift making it to the I-70 corridor so have added slight chance (20%) pops to include this area. These storms should be fairly decent (albeit quick) precipitation makers; no severe weather is not anticipated with this activity. Did increase temperatures area wide for tomorrow with mid to upper 90s currently forecasted as nearly all guidance other than the NAM have increased temperatures. Do need to keep the NAM in mind however as the moisture return is quite a bit stronger with dew points being in the mid 60s to upper 60s; which if this occurs temperatures won`t be as warm. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 206 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Early this afternoon the sky was clear as dry northwest upper level flow persisted over the Central Plains. A ridge was centered over the Desert Southwest with a trough over the Great Lakes Region. At the surface a cooler air mass was over the forecast area with light easterly winds and a surface ridge over Nebraska. For the rest of the day the winds will continue to be light but turn to the south as a surface high pressure over Nebraska drifts to the east. Tonight light south winds are expected. A weak upper level short wave trough will move over Southwest Kansas during the evening into the overnight hours. The strongest forcing with this trough will be over the TX/OK panhandles. There may be some isolated storm activity over the forecast area. However confidence is just high enough for these storms to occur to include them in the forecast. Friday will be warmer than today due to the WAA from the south winds. During the day a dry line will setup near the CO/KS border. By mid afternoon an upper level short wave trough will approach the forecast area from the west. There is very little to no instability over East Central CO, so am not anticipating much for thunderstorm coverage. Due to the high cloud bases, strong winds may occur with any storms that form. As the upper level short wave trough approaches the dry line, storm coverage may increase as well as storm intensity. Models indicate a line of storms should form as the outflow boundaries form the initial storms merge together. The mean flow is to the east-southeast so anticipate the storm activity to head that direction through the afternoon and evening. Friday night storm coverage should increase before mid evening over the eastern third of the forecast area, with lesser coverage to the west where the lift is not as strong and the environment is more stable. Regarding threats initial, lone storms are supportive of hail up to golfball size and wind gusts up to 70 MPH. However as storms merge together the threat will shift to more of damaging wind gusts than hail. A secondary threat will be the potential for QLCS tornadoes to occur over the eastern half of the forecast area. Latest data shows the 0-3km winds are orientated in a similar direction to the mean wind. The shear will be 30-40 kts, more than enough to support brief tornado development for any part of the line that is perpendicular to the 0-3 km shear. The tornado threat will be more of a concern during the evening when the low level winds increase. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 230 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Sun-Mon: A WNW-ESE elongated upper level low over the Canadian Prairies (Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba) will play a significant role with regard to the evolution of the upper level pattern over the Northern and Central Plains late this weekend and early next week -- as one might infer from recent /00Z/ operational runs of the GFS/ECMWF. The GFS suggests that this feature will slowly dig SSE through the Northern Plains (Sun) into the Central MS River Valley (Mon) -- a cooler/wetter pattern for the Tri-State area. The ECMWF, on the other hand, suggests that this feature will stall in Canada, leaving a modest upper level ridge in place over the Central Plains -- a warmer/drier pattern for the Tri-State area. With the above in mind.. confidence in sensible weather conditions is well below average. Steering the forecast toward climatology appears to be the most prudent course of action at this time. Tue-Fri: Long range guidance continues to indicate that the main belt of mid-latitude westerlies (and majority of progressive shortwave energy) will be relegated to higher latitudes.. over the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Dakotas and Upper Great Lakes (40-50N).. and that a stagnant flow pattern will prevail at lower latitudes, over the Desert Southwest, 4-Corners, central-southern Rockies and Central- Southern Plains.. where several waves may be trapped /cut-off/ within. If the Tri-State area is indeed situated on the far southern fringe of the westerlies, one would expect seasonable conditions (i.e. climatology). It should be noted that increased pattern complexity -- e.g. the presence of one or several cut- off waves invof the southern Pacific Coast, Desert Southwest, 4-Corners, Southern Plains and/or Gulf Coast -- drastically reduces forecast confidence.. especially at this range. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1038 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024 VAD wind profiler at KGLD shows LLWS potential increasing along with support from RAP and GFS forecast soundings so will include for each terminal overnight. Confidence has continued to increase in -tsra to impact the GLD terminal so have added in a tempo for this. Southerly winds then continue through the day before another chance of storms moves across the area. Overall coverage continues to remain murky so have opted to go with VCTS as any storms look to be isolated to scattered, severe weather may be possible as well. Winds then turn to the north behind the storms through the end of the period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Trigg SHORT TERM...JTL LONG TERM...Vincent AVIATION...Trigg